David Macdonald

Interesting to see that HALF of all econo activity in Canada is just gvts providing: health care, education, infrastructure, pensions. The other half is the private sector selling things. Cuts to govts are cuts to GDP growth...shocking ;) @policyalternatives.ca
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo...

Budget cuts by stealth: Letting programs “sunset” to cut costs won’t be painless - CCPA The feds will quietly “sunset” programs as part of their cost-cutting in the November 4, 2025 budget. Quiet cuts can still hurt.

If folks are interested, here's the full write up with a detailed list of over 120 programs that will "sunset" in the coming years putting them at real risk of being lost: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Social programs could be 'sunset' along with jobs of public servants who administer them: analysis The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives estimates that 52 of 88 departments and agencies will "sunset" programs.

Some great coverage on my latest analysis of what programs may be lost due to the 15% fed program cuts in the @ottawacitizen.com : ottawacitizen.com/public-servi... @policyalternatives.ca

Alternative federal budget 2026: Building true Canadian sovereignty - CCPA What true Canadian sovereignty and independence might look like when the public good is at the heart of budgetary planning

Budget are about choices. We don't have to choose these cuts, we can choose to invest in Canadian priorities instead. Today our Alternative Federal Budget includes 100s of costed programs we should be choosing: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc... 7/x

Budget cuts by stealth: Letting programs “sunset” to cut costs won’t be painless - CCPA The feds will quietly “sunset” programs as part of their cost-cutting in the November 4, 2025 budget. Quiet cuts can still hurt.

Read the full details about what we'll be losing: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc... 6/x

So what's at risk? We've compiled over 120 programs that are going to sunset in the next three years. Many climate change programs, women fleeing violence, airline complaints resolution, student jobs programs are at risk 5/x

One of the ways depts will get to their 15% cut target will be to just sit on their hands and let programs sunset and not get renewed. It will be an accident of timing of what will be lost 4/x

Table 1: Proportion of expenditures that sunset by department | Created with Datawrapper Departments have to cut 15 per cent of expenditure. Many departments have far more than that in sunsetting programs in the next three years.

Depts of Women & Gender, Transport & environment the majority of programs are sunsetting in next 3 yrs. Although you can see the full list here: www.datawrapper.de/_/Ee4AB/ 3/x

Many fed programs aren't permanent, they have to be renewed every few years. Over the next 3yrs, almost no programs will be renewed due to the 15% cuts. This "sunsetting" affects some depts more than others. 2/x

Budgets are meant to be good news docs. This one will downplay all that will be lost with 15% cuts in most depts. We've scoured dept docs to identify programs likely to be "sunset" and the 52 depts likely to use this strategy @policyalternatives.ca 🧵👇👇👇

We set it at 5km radius in urban areas or 10km in rural. That's about 2 to 3 times further than the closest public school so its a generous "nearby"

Cash cow: Assessing child care space creation progress - CCPA Canada’s $10-a-day child care program isn't creating enough spaces to meet demand and isn't doing enough to make sure that new spaces are non-profit

Read the full report here: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Now that fees are falling fast, the real challenge is public space creation. Without strong public planning, for-profits will keep expanding in the easiest places—not where children actually live. We need much more proactive planning to hit the targets and do it with non-profit spaces. (8/10)

Childcare deserts in Canada: find where your community fits in 2025 - CCPA Canada’s federal child care program, which began rolling out in 2021, has two main goals: lower fees to $10 per day per child, and expand the amount of space available in licensed childcare facilities...

Many cities still struggle badly:
• 75% of kids in Kitchener, Oshawa, Fort McMurray live in child care deserts
• Calgary: half of kids in deserts,
• Quebec cities & Charlottetown are near universal access
Find your city in this interactive map: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...
(7/10)

The program was supposed to grow public and non-profit child care. Instead, it’s become a cash cow for private operators who dominate the growth:
• 57% of new spaces since 2022 are for-profit
• Only 30% are non-profit or public (6/10)

But the real issue isn’t just how many spaces are created—it’s whether parents can find one. The federal benchmark is 5.9 spaces per 10 children. Only Quebec and PEI are already there. Many provinces won’t hit it, even if they hit their space creation targets (which many won’t). (5/10)

That being said, child care deserts—blocks with almost no nearby child care spaces—are shrinking, but still widespread. BC, Alb, Sask, NL, Ontario have all rapidly reduced the number of kids living in child care deserts 4/10

Overachievers who are above their space creation targets: NB, BC & PEI
Already have decent coverage: Quebec and PEI
Strugglers: MB, NS & SK: only a fraction of their goals
Progress is uneven—and often behind. (3/10)

The fed’s goal isn’t just $10-a-day fees by 2026—it’s also 210K new full-time child care spaces by April 2025. So far, provinces are short 57,030 spaces. Some prov are on target or ahead. Others are far behind. (2/10)

Canada’s $10-a-day child care program is cutting fees—but is it creating enough spaces? My new report from @policyalternatives.ca shows big promises, mixed results, and a growing role for for-profit care. Here’s what the data tells us🧵👇👇👇

DND is exempt

A stiff price to pay: Predicting federal job losses due to Carney’s cuts - CCPA The newly elected federal government has promised major military spending increases and tax cuts. To pay for it, the government is seeking 15 per cent in cuts across all federal departments except the...

So the point is that this will be a mindless chainsaw through services that Canadians rely on. All in trade for more defense spending and a tax cut. These are Trump-approved priorities when we need Canadian priorities. Here's the full analysis: 8/x www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Job losses by 2028, divided by geography | Created with Datawrapper A regional breakdown of potential job losses due to coming federal cuts. The hardest-hit zone, by far, would be the National Capital Region of Ottawa-Gatineau, where nearly half of the total job loss...

While the service impacts will be country-wide the employment impacts will be biggest in #ottawa and #gatineau where over 24,000 jobs could be lost by 2028. Here's the projected impact by region 7/x www.datawrapper.de/_/jV9Lz/

Cutting that many people would almost certainly affect service levels. Folks will likely notice it in longer wait times on the phone to get help with your taxes. No help if your EI claim gets fouled up. Backlogs once again to get a passport. 6/x

These departments would see the highest cuts as they are service heavy departments. You need alot of people to process personal and biz tax returns, deal with missing transfer payments, help people get EI and their pension, as well as help people deal with passports and immigration issues. 5/x

Table 1: Cumulative FTE losses by department | Created with Datawrapper Explore this table to see possible projected job cuts in different federal departments. Cut projections are cumulative, meaning that they include numbers from previous years on the table rather than r...

Cuts would hit hardest at CRA, losing 14,300 FTEs, ESDC losing 4,200 and CIC losing 3,800. Those are the top 3 but you can see all the others (over 100 FTEs lost) if you click on this table 4/x www.datawrapper.de/_/4wfsN/

The protected departments of DND, RCMP and CBSA will likely see no job losses. They actually saw some increases in staffing while other depts saw "refocusing" cuts. 3/x

The staff cuts have already started. The Carney cuts would be on top of the Trudeau cuts that were in Budget 2023 called "refocusing" gov. Those have already resulted in >10,000 lost FTEs this year. The "savings" from those cuts don't peak until next year (although I only include this years) 2/x

Figure 1: Breakdown of cuts envelope, 2025-26

Of the cuts announced so far, staffing cuts will only make up about a quarter of the "savings". Over half of the "savings" is actually just cuts in transfers to another level of government, people (mostly Vets) or non-profits. Here's the breakdown of the envelope 2/x datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xzSL2/4/

Ottawa and Gatineau will 'bear the brunt' of public service cuts: report A new analysis finds the government could cut the equivalent of more than 24,000 full-time jobs in the National Capital Region.

Now calculated potential staffing cuts from the fed public sector cuts announced in July. TLDR, they'll be big, probably over 57,000 by 2028-29. I got some good coverage in the @ottawacitizen.com but here are the brief details🧵👇👇 @policyalternatives.ca ottawacitizen.com/public-servi...