David Macdonald

We set it at 5km radius in urban areas or 10km in rural. That's about 2 to 3 times further than the closest public school so its a generous "nearby"

Cash cow: Assessing child care space creation progress - CCPA Canada’s $10-a-day child care program isn't creating enough spaces to meet demand and isn't doing enough to make sure that new spaces are non-profit

Read the full report here: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Now that fees are falling fast, the real challenge is public space creation. Without strong public planning, for-profits will keep expanding in the easiest places—not where children actually live. We need much more proactive planning to hit the targets and do it with non-profit spaces. (8/10)

Childcare deserts in Canada: find where your community fits in 2025 - CCPA Canada’s federal child care program, which began rolling out in 2021, has two main goals: lower fees to $10 per day per child, and expand the amount of space available in licensed childcare facilities...

Many cities still struggle badly:
• 75% of kids in Kitchener, Oshawa, Fort McMurray live in child care deserts
• Calgary: half of kids in deserts,
• Quebec cities & Charlottetown are near universal access
Find your city in this interactive map: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...
(7/10)

The program was supposed to grow public and non-profit child care. Instead, it’s become a cash cow for private operators who dominate the growth:
• 57% of new spaces since 2022 are for-profit
• Only 30% are non-profit or public (6/10)

But the real issue isn’t just how many spaces are created—it’s whether parents can find one. The federal benchmark is 5.9 spaces per 10 children. Only Quebec and PEI are already there. Many provinces won’t hit it, even if they hit their space creation targets (which many won’t). (5/10)

That being said, child care deserts—blocks with almost no nearby child care spaces—are shrinking, but still widespread. BC, Alb, Sask, NL, Ontario have all rapidly reduced the number of kids living in child care deserts 4/10

Overachievers who are above their space creation targets: NB, BC & PEI
Already have decent coverage: Quebec and PEI
Strugglers: MB, NS & SK: only a fraction of their goals
Progress is uneven—and often behind. (3/10)

The fed’s goal isn’t just $10-a-day fees by 2026—it’s also 210K new full-time child care spaces by April 2025. So far, provinces are short 57,030 spaces. Some prov are on target or ahead. Others are far behind. (2/10)

Canada’s $10-a-day child care program is cutting fees—but is it creating enough spaces? My new report from @policyalternatives.ca shows big promises, mixed results, and a growing role for for-profit care. Here’s what the data tells us🧵👇👇👇

DND is exempt

A stiff price to pay: Predicting federal job losses due to Carney’s cuts - CCPA The newly elected federal government has promised major military spending increases and tax cuts. To pay for it, the government is seeking 15 per cent in cuts across all federal departments except the...

So the point is that this will be a mindless chainsaw through services that Canadians rely on. All in trade for more defense spending and a tax cut. These are Trump-approved priorities when we need Canadian priorities. Here's the full analysis: 8/x www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Job losses by 2028, divided by geography | Created with Datawrapper A regional breakdown of potential job losses due to coming federal cuts. The hardest-hit zone, by far, would be the National Capital Region of Ottawa-Gatineau, where nearly half of the total job loss...

While the service impacts will be country-wide the employment impacts will be biggest in #ottawa and #gatineau where over 24,000 jobs could be lost by 2028. Here's the projected impact by region 7/x www.datawrapper.de/_/jV9Lz/

Cutting that many people would almost certainly affect service levels. Folks will likely notice it in longer wait times on the phone to get help with your taxes. No help if your EI claim gets fouled up. Backlogs once again to get a passport. 6/x

These departments would see the highest cuts as they are service heavy departments. You need alot of people to process personal and biz tax returns, deal with missing transfer payments, help people get EI and their pension, as well as help people deal with passports and immigration issues. 5/x

Table 1: Cumulative FTE losses by department | Created with Datawrapper Explore this table to see possible projected job cuts in different federal departments. Cut projections are cumulative, meaning that they include numbers from previous years on the table rather than r...

Cuts would hit hardest at CRA, losing 14,300 FTEs, ESDC losing 4,200 and CIC losing 3,800. Those are the top 3 but you can see all the others (over 100 FTEs lost) if you click on this table 4/x www.datawrapper.de/_/4wfsN/

The protected departments of DND, RCMP and CBSA will likely see no job losses. They actually saw some increases in staffing while other depts saw "refocusing" cuts. 3/x

The staff cuts have already started. The Carney cuts would be on top of the Trudeau cuts that were in Budget 2023 called "refocusing" gov. Those have already resulted in >10,000 lost FTEs this year. The "savings" from those cuts don't peak until next year (although I only include this years) 2/x

Figure 1: Breakdown of cuts envelope, 2025-26

Of the cuts announced so far, staffing cuts will only make up about a quarter of the "savings". Over half of the "savings" is actually just cuts in transfers to another level of government, people (mostly Vets) or non-profits. Here's the breakdown of the envelope 2/x datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xzSL2/4/

Ottawa and Gatineau will 'bear the brunt' of public service cuts: report A new analysis finds the government could cut the equivalent of more than 24,000 full-time jobs in the National Capital Region.

Now calculated potential staffing cuts from the fed public sector cuts announced in July. TLDR, they'll be big, probably over 57,000 by 2028-29. I got some good coverage in the @ottawacitizen.com but here are the brief details🧵👇👇 @policyalternatives.ca ottawacitizen.com/public-servi...

We need more museums, more galleries, more CBC and more Via Rail...not less. Yet these cuts threaten to erase all the campaign promises and put all the crown corps in a worse place. Somehow this didn’t make it into the election debates. 6/x

This summer Cdns can use the “Canada Strong Pass” to visit national museums and galleries at reduced admission. Too bad those same museums and galleries are facing a cut of $43 mil a year due to the Carney cuts. 5/x

Via Rail is also on the chopping block. The 2024 fed budget scheduled an extra $85 mil on Via Rail, but the Carney cuts would demand $90 mil back in 28-29. Just like the CBC its 1 step forward 2 steps back. 4/x

The CBC could be forced to cut back $214 mil/yr. Incredibly the Liberal platform promised $150 mil more a year to CBC, but now the Carney cuts promise to take all that away and then some. 3/x

The CMHC could be forced to cut $955 mil. The mortgage insurance side is unaffected as its self funded. But CMHC administers over $6 bil in affordable housing for the feds. A big part is for Indigenous housing, which might see a $ billion in cuts 2/x

So much for ‘Canada strong’: Mark Carney’s cuts to the public service are a brutal trade-off The Liberals are pondering cuts so deep, they’ll outdo the Harper government and rival Paul Martin.

My latest look at the Carney cuts in the @thestar.com, but this time it impacts crown corps like the CBC, Via Rail and CMHC. These could all see their transfers cut by 15% Priorities in the campaign but now targets for cuts @policyalternatives.ca 🧵👇👇👇 www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...

Its the 2025-26 Main estimates. THere's a writeup of what's in and what's out in the methodology section of my analysis.

Where will the federal government cut to pay for military spending and tax cuts? - CCPA Supports to First Nations, veterans, new Canadians, and international aid could be on the chopping block—just for starters

There is much more in the full analysis including cuts to new Canadians integration, biz sectoral and regional supports. Read it all here: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc... 8/x

Oddly these are Trump's priorities for Canada. Defence, RCMP and Border services are whitelisted, needing few if any cuts. But what should be our priorities: Indigenous reconciliation, Vets, Science and our standing in the world --- are cut to the bone. 7/x

Research grants to universities & colleges as well as graduate scholarships face $764 million in cuts to pay for tax cuts and miliary spending. The Tri-council agencies providing those funds just won an increase in the last budget, but that will be completely undercut now. 6/x