David Macdonald

DND is exempt

A stiff price to pay: Predicting federal job losses due to Carney’s cuts - CCPA The newly elected federal government has promised major military spending increases and tax cuts. To pay for it, the government is seeking 15 per cent in cuts across all federal departments except the...

So the point is that this will be a mindless chainsaw through services that Canadians rely on. All in trade for more defense spending and a tax cut. These are Trump-approved priorities when we need Canadian priorities. Here's the full analysis: 8/x www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc...

Job losses by 2028, divided by geography | Created with Datawrapper A regional breakdown of potential job losses due to coming federal cuts. The hardest-hit zone, by far, would be the National Capital Region of Ottawa-Gatineau, where nearly half of the total job loss...

While the service impacts will be country-wide the employment impacts will be biggest in #ottawa and #gatineau where over 24,000 jobs could be lost by 2028. Here's the projected impact by region 7/x www.datawrapper.de/_/jV9Lz/

Cutting that many people would almost certainly affect service levels. Folks will likely notice it in longer wait times on the phone to get help with your taxes. No help if your EI claim gets fouled up. Backlogs once again to get a passport. 6/x

These departments would see the highest cuts as they are service heavy departments. You need alot of people to process personal and biz tax returns, deal with missing transfer payments, help people get EI and their pension, as well as help people deal with passports and immigration issues. 5/x

Table 1: Cumulative FTE losses by department | Created with Datawrapper Explore this table to see possible projected job cuts in different federal departments. Cut projections are cumulative, meaning that they include numbers from previous years on the table rather than r...

Cuts would hit hardest at CRA, losing 14,300 FTEs, ESDC losing 4,200 and CIC losing 3,800. Those are the top 3 but you can see all the others (over 100 FTEs lost) if you click on this table 4/x www.datawrapper.de/_/4wfsN/

The protected departments of DND, RCMP and CBSA will likely see no job losses. They actually saw some increases in staffing while other depts saw "refocusing" cuts. 3/x

The staff cuts have already started. The Carney cuts would be on top of the Trudeau cuts that were in Budget 2023 called "refocusing" gov. Those have already resulted in >10,000 lost FTEs this year. The "savings" from those cuts don't peak until next year (although I only include this years) 2/x

Figure 1: Breakdown of cuts envelope, 2025-26

Of the cuts announced so far, staffing cuts will only make up about a quarter of the "savings". Over half of the "savings" is actually just cuts in transfers to another level of government, people (mostly Vets) or non-profits. Here's the breakdown of the envelope 2/x datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xzSL2/4/

Ottawa and Gatineau will 'bear the brunt' of public service cuts: report A new analysis finds the government could cut the equivalent of more than 24,000 full-time jobs in the National Capital Region.

Now calculated potential staffing cuts from the fed public sector cuts announced in July. TLDR, they'll be big, probably over 57,000 by 2028-29. I got some good coverage in the @ottawacitizen.com but here are the brief details🧵👇👇 @policyalternatives.ca ottawacitizen.com/public-servi...

We need more museums, more galleries, more CBC and more Via Rail...not less. Yet these cuts threaten to erase all the campaign promises and put all the crown corps in a worse place. Somehow this didn’t make it into the election debates. 6/x

This summer Cdns can use the “Canada Strong Pass” to visit national museums and galleries at reduced admission. Too bad those same museums and galleries are facing a cut of $43 mil a year due to the Carney cuts. 5/x

Via Rail is also on the chopping block. The 2024 fed budget scheduled an extra $85 mil on Via Rail, but the Carney cuts would demand $90 mil back in 28-29. Just like the CBC its 1 step forward 2 steps back. 4/x

The CBC could be forced to cut back $214 mil/yr. Incredibly the Liberal platform promised $150 mil more a year to CBC, but now the Carney cuts promise to take all that away and then some. 3/x

The CMHC could be forced to cut $955 mil. The mortgage insurance side is unaffected as its self funded. But CMHC administers over $6 bil in affordable housing for the feds. A big part is for Indigenous housing, which might see a $ billion in cuts 2/x

So much for ‘Canada strong’: Mark Carney’s cuts to the public service are a brutal trade-off The Liberals are pondering cuts so deep, they’ll outdo the Harper government and rival Paul Martin.

My latest look at the Carney cuts in the @thestar.com, but this time it impacts crown corps like the CBC, Via Rail and CMHC. These could all see their transfers cut by 15% Priorities in the campaign but now targets for cuts @policyalternatives.ca 🧵👇👇👇 www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...

Its the 2025-26 Main estimates. THere's a writeup of what's in and what's out in the methodology section of my analysis.

Where will the federal government cut to pay for military spending and tax cuts? - CCPA Supports to First Nations, veterans, new Canadians, and international aid could be on the chopping block—just for starters

There is much more in the full analysis including cuts to new Canadians integration, biz sectoral and regional supports. Read it all here: www.policyalternatives.ca/news-researc... 8/x

Oddly these are Trump's priorities for Canada. Defence, RCMP and Border services are whitelisted, needing few if any cuts. But what should be our priorities: Indigenous reconciliation, Vets, Science and our standing in the world --- are cut to the bone. 7/x

Research grants to universities & colleges as well as graduate scholarships face $764 million in cuts to pay for tax cuts and miliary spending. The Tri-council agencies providing those funds just won an increase in the last budget, but that will be completely undercut now. 6/x

Figure 7: Transfers from Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development compared to cuts needed | Created with Datawrapper 2025-26

International assistance is clearly on the block. We've never hit Lester Pearson goal in terms of aid to lower income countries. We'll fall further behind over the coming years. Almost $800 mil in that aid is now on the block. 5/x
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Figure 6: Transfers from Department of Veterans Affairs compared to cuts needed | Created with Datawrapper 2025-26

Shockingly Veterans supports will be hard hit as well. Just under a Bil a year is on the block including disability benefits and Vets health care. A cruel irony that active military see a raises paid for by Vets facing cuts. 4/x
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Figure 2: Transfers from Department of Indigenous Services compared to cuts needed | Created with Datawrapper 2025-26

Indigenous services will be hit hard. A stunning $4.5 bil in cuts, 1 of 5 dollars in cuts is just reduced transfers to First Nations to provide police, ed and health care. Gutting Indigenous social programs is not an "ambitions" way to find "savings". 3/x
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In each of the following transfer heavy dept, you have to play a terrible but deadly serious game (that Ministers are doing right now) of getting to the required cuts bar using the existing transfers 2/x

Figure 1: Breakdown of cuts envelope, 2025-26 | Created with Datawrapper Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

The cuts are rapidly expanding and more than half will come from fed transfers to other govs, persons, non-profits and biz. Big transfers like equalization and health transfer are protected, but there's more than those transfers. 1/x
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The fed gov cuts to pay for military and wealthy tax cuts have rapidly expanded. My new analysis shows that most of the cuts will now be on transfers to other govs, non-profits and people. A stunning 1 in 5 dollars is just cuts to FN govs for basic social programs. @policyalternatives.ca 🧵👇👇

What can be feasibly cut or in-sourced, which is mostly salaries, would face a historic 24% cut, something that will absolutely have a massive impact on quality and service levels. 4/4

What ministers will likely find is what my analysis found, much of the denominator isn't things that can be feasibly cut, you aren't going to stop construction or engineering outsourcing, or skip out on the building rent or utilities. 3/x

Liberals will need to rethink their promised budget cuts - CCPA The Liberal campaign platform promised big public sector “productivity” savings, but if you compare it to federal data, a concerning picture emerges. Some key highlights:

This is exactly what I calculated last week. These are well more than the Harper 2010 cuts (5-10%) and in line with the Martin 1995 cuts (18.9%) policyalternatives.ca/news-researc... 2/x

Cabinet ministers told to find ‘ambitious’ savings by end of summer Ministers have been asked to cut 7.5 per cent from program spending next year, growing to 15 per cent by 2028-29

For the record, I meant it as a cautionary tale not a manual! But it looks like my big projections of federal cuts are coming .... worth 15% of spending.
@policyalternatives.ca
theglobeandmail.com/politics/art... 1/x