Never tell me the Odds: Is your CEO Han Solo? Probabilistic strategy, tactics, decisions require a mindset shift: stop hiding from the odds; start moving them.

open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

New Cassi Blog - rethinking decision-making.

Prediction Centric Warfare Notes and slides from my talk at DSEI yesterday.

Terrific fun yesterday talking about this with super smart and engaged audience and brilliant friends and colleagues on stage. Hope you enjoy it as much as I did!

open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

Everything is Prediction From Ramsey to Yudkowsky, the case for making our bets explicit.

A good explanation of why prediction is important to analysis. "Refusing to put numbers on beliefs does not make those beliefs less numerical; it merely makes them unaccountable." cassiai.substack.com/p/everything...

New blog: how we see the world at Cassi - decisions, tactics, strategy, perception, agency - everything is prediction.

cassiai.substack.com/p/everything...

Future Diplomat Reimagining Diplomacy for 2035.

Future Diplomat - New Cassi Blog Post out now. open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

“Don’t be humble, you’re not that great.” Golda Meir I think.

In that spirit 😊. But maybe consider subscribing, or upgrading to a paid subscription.

cassiai.substack.com

How spy agencies are experimenting with the newest AI models America has better technology. But will China adopt it more quickly?

I wrote this week on the way that intelligence services are increasingly experimenting with frontier labs’ AI models—though still too slowly and conservatively, according to critics—and how that might compare with Chinese agencies and institutions. www.economist.com/internationa...

What did you do in the AI Revolution, Daddy? Pre-GPT-5, Post AGI? For too many, hope is the largest part of their AI strategy. We are still under-estimating the speed of AI progress, and the profundity of its implications.

open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

New blog. 'Just' an update on AI progress.

Today (w/ @ox.ac.uk @stanford @MIT @LSE) we’re sharing the results of the largest AI persuasion experiments to date: 76k participants, 19  LLMs, 707 political issues.

We examine “levers” of AI persuasion: model scale, post-training, prompting, personalization, & more! 

🧵:

How should Britain define asymmetric advantage? The Big Ask | No. 27.2025

@kpdmusing.bsky.social defines asymmetric advantage as ‘demonstrably matching our strengths against other’s weaknesses, in a way that we can show, probabilistically, will lead us to achieve a superior position if we are successful’

#BigAsk #BritainsWorld

Pleased to have my take on the definition of asymmetric advantage in our National Security Strategy published by the Council on Geostrategy - and among a stellar cast offering their views.

UK set to back Nato push for 3.5% of GDP defence spending by 2035 Commitment to new target expected at summit despite fresh questions for PM Keir Starmer over funding

Completely bonkers. “The UK is expected to back Nato’s push for all members to spend at least 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035, despite Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s hesitation over when the UK will get to 3 per cent.” www.ft.com/content/d44e...

UK Strategic Defence Review (SDR): Reviewing the Review & the Reactionariat. The good, bad and ugly.

Thoughts on the Review, and my worry we miss the opportunity it gives us.

open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

Robustly demonstrated by now that you don’t need a mind to have theory of mind:

Doctor Weirdlove or: “How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Skynet” Why betting on a crewed RAF Tempest is a dangerous gamble—and how ignoring the AGI debate leaves us strategically exposed

New blog post: open.substack.com/pub/cassiai/...

Reading @milesbrundage.bsky.social, @kpdmusing.bsky.social, wondering when to shout fire