Colin Angus

Reforming alcohol taxes in a cost-of-living crisis - Sheffield Addictions Research Group Evaluating the impact of reforms to the UK alcohol tax system, increases to alcohol tax rates, and the current cost-of-living crisis on alcohol consumption, associated harms and health inequalities.

This paper is the latest output from our project evaluating the impacts of recent reforms to alcohol taxation and the cost-of-living crisis. You can read more about what we're up to:
sarg-sheffield.ac.uk/projects/ref...

...but it remains unclear to what extent, if any, cost pressures are actually leading to risky drinkers cutting down successfully.

These findings present a bit of a mixed picture - it's clear that alcohol support services should be aware that an increasing proportion of heavier drinkers may be having financial difficulties...

The prevalence of cost-motivated reduction attempts was highest among heavier drinkers, current smokers and lower socioeconomic groups, although these gaps narrowed and all but disappeared by 2024. We also found higher prevalence in younger adults and people experiencing psychological distress.

Overall we estimate that 1.1 million people attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in 2024 with cost as a factor in that decision, although most of these people also cited other factors, such as health concerns.

This suggests that cost is an increasingly salient factor for heavier drinkers, but this doesn't appear to have driven an increase in attempts to drink less. It seems that cost is just one of many important factors that lead people to try and cut down on their drinking.

We find a clear increase in the proportion of risky drinkers who have attempted to reduce their alcohol consumption in the past year and cite cost as a factor in that decision.

BUT

No change in the overall proportion of risky drinkers attempting to cut down.

We've got a new paper out in @addictionjournal.bsky.social led by @drsarahejackson.bsky.social looking at trends in cost as a motivating factor for people looking to reduce their alcohol consumption.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

I had a wide-ranging chat with journalist David Hillier the other day about alcohol prices, deaths data and licensing reforms:

What the what now? This is *wild*!

And the same graph again.

During the only period in recent history when alcohol duties were increased above inflation for a sustained period - the 2008-2013 duty escalator - Treasury revenue *rose*, both in cash- and real-terms.

The same line graph as in the previous post showing total Treasury revenue from alcohol duties

This graph also rather challenges attempts that the alcohol industry often make invoking the Laffer curve (which says that there is a point at which increasing tax rates leads to a reduction, not an increase, in total tax take) to say that increasing alcohol duties would lose the Treasury money.

Estimating recent trends in alcohol sales in the United Kingdom from alcohol duty revenue Background and Aims The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant changes in individual-level alcohol consumption and a sharp increase in heavy drinking in the United Kingdom (UK). More rece.....

We looked into this in more detail here, but basically the evidence strongly points to this being a cost-of-living crisis effect and basically nothing to do with the duty reforms:

doi.org/10.1111/add....

A line chart showing total Treasury revenue from alcohol duty since 2000 both adjusting for inflation and in cash terms. The inflation-adjusted line is broadly stable for 20 years, then crashes from the start of 2021 as the cost-of living crisis kicks in. It is clear from the graph that this crash began well before the duty reforms in 2023, so cannot sensibly be attributed to the reforms.

Recent weeks have seen lots of attempts from the alcohol industry to blame the 2023 duty reforms for falls in government revenue from alcohol duties, but the data just doens't support this.

Looking at total receipts, they were falling well before the reforms came in in August 2023.

A line chart showing the changes in real-terms prices (i.e. after adjusting for overall inflation) in the 13 separate food and drink categories that ONS reports between January 2021 and September 2025. Oils and fats have seen the biggest increases, by far, of almost 40%, while most other food and drink groups have increased by 5-15%. Only beer, fruit, spirits, fish and wine have seen a real-terms fall in prices over this period.

Also when thinking about inflation, it's worth noting that although the cost-of-living crisis has seen well above usual levels of inflation, the average prices of alcohol have risen more slowly than almost any other food or drink items.

As a result alcohol is *more* affordable now.

We've previously modelled the impacts of those freezes and cuts to alcohol duty between 2013 and 2019 and found some prety substantial public health harms, with the biggest impacts in the most deprived groups.

doi.org/10.15131/she...

The same graph as the previous post.

This plot also shows the tail end of the duty escalator that increased duty by 2% above inflation until 2013, the coalition and Conservative gov'ts successive duty cuts and freezes and then the duty reforms and inflation-linked duty increases since 2023 keeping things more steady in real terms.

A truncated version of the inflation-adjusted duty rate graph from the previous post, showing only trends since 2010. Duty rates rose until 2013, then fell slowly until 2021 (except for wine which held fairly steady), then fell sharply as inflation peaked in 2021/22, before a large correction in 2023, and have remained largely stable since.

Looking at just the last 15 years, after adjusting for inflation, alcohol duty rates are 29.5% lower for beer, 16.1% lower for cider, 8.0% lower for wine and 22.8% lower for spirits than January 2010.

A line chart showing cash-terms (i.e. unadjusted for inflation) alcohol duty rates by type of alcohol since 1979. These have increased steadily over time, particularly between 2008-2013 under the 'duty escalator', except for under the previous coalition/Conservative government when they fell or remained at the same levels for almost a decade.

The same graph, but after adjusting for inflation. This tells a very different story with the lines all trending down over time, except for the duty escalator period, when they rose briefly. Overall alcohol duty rates are much lower now in real terms than they have been at almost any point in the previous 40-odd years.

A few thoughts on alcohol duty ahead of the budget (and an excuse to update some old graphs).

These two show the important of accounting for inflation - in cash terms alcohol duty rates are higher than ever before, but in real terms they are at historically low levels.

Thanks. The subnational aspect is very helpful, but that's all we use APS for. Much more concerned, in the grand scheme of things, about the threat to the HSE. Sigh.

Thanks. Do you mean this letter? It does mention the APS, but no more detail beyond that. Or is there another letter?

www.ons.gov.uk/news/stateme...

ONS to cut reports on health and crime to improve quality of core data UK’s statistics agency announces ‘recovery’ plan after concerns raised over reliability of its data

Does anyone know what health data they are proposing to cut here, and whether it's the underlying data, or just the reports summarising some aspects of that which are under threat?

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

...but them completely forgets about that and just talks about the cost of distortions, without the offsetting benefits.

Which is why I'd like to know whether this is the prevailing view among economists (insofar as economists can ever agree on anything), or if this guy is an outlier.

...it's all very well to say 'we must be able to do better via mechanism x', but if you can't actually specific how, then I'm going to retain some scepticism about your argument.

It also acknowledges early on the possibility that the cost of distortions is exceeded by the increases in wellbeing...

That it's interesting and that the point about the cost of distortions is important and could be significant.

But I find the detail-free appeal at the end to a hypothetical idealised means-tested benefits system as an alternative a bit unsatisfying and hand-wavy...

Ha! Economics can be really interesting, it's just that economists often hide that interest behind obscure equations and wild assumptions. Also economists are weird.

I'd be interested to know how widespread the viewpoint put forward in this article is among economists.

Zero tolerance for 0%? How should clinicians and other practitioners respond to the use of alcohol‐free and low‐alcohol products in higher risk groups Alcohol-free and low-alcohol drinks (no/lo drinks) are now widely available and popular with consumers in high-income countries; however, it is unclear whether clinicians and others working to preven...

Really interesting opinion piece in @addictionjournal.bsky.social here from some of my colleagues looking at the potential benefits and risks/challenges of no/lo alcohol products for very heavy drinkers and those in recovery:

doi.org/10.1111/add....

Zero tolerance for 0%? How should clinicians and other practitioners respond to the use of alcohol‐free and low‐alcohol products in higher risk groups Alcohol-free and low-alcohol drinks (no/lo drinks) are now widely available and popular with consumers in high-income countries; however, it is unclear whether clinicians and others working to…

Clinicians: Should patients at high risk of alcohol harm use no and low-alcohol drinks?

New research highlights the need for nuanced guidance beyond zero-tolerance, considering non-abstinence goals and harm reduction:

Smoking cessation after referral from hospital to community stop smoking services: an observational study Introduction In England, acute National Health Service (NHS) hospitals routinely ask patients about smoking status on admission, offering in-hospital treatment for tobacco dependence and support for q...

The latest publication from our evaluation of the QUIT hospital-based tobacco dependence treatment service is now available. It investigates patient flows from hospital to community stop smoking services and subsequent quitting outcomes. Find out more about this work at quit.sites.sheffield.ac.uk

Why are alcohol-free drinks so expensive? Some fake spirits cost over £25 a bottle! In this new series, our money and consumer editor considers the often perplexing reasons items cost what they do. As a new report suggests booze-free booze can cost 25% more than the alcoholic equival...

A nice primer here (ft. @sarg-scharr.bsky.social research) on no/lo alcohol prices and whether they really are more expensive than their alcoholic equivalents.

www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...