Madi Kapparov

Interesting choice. Hope does indeed die last.

Both, the State Duma deputies and senators, come up with proposal as "feelers" to gauge the reaction of the population and other political players. E.g. price cap proposals have been made quite a few times and so far have not been introduced.

For now, no such plans have been announced. Head of the Federation Council Committee on Budget and Financial Markets, Anatoly Artamonov, *proposed* shifting 2 trillion from "ineffective expense categories" to "greater priorities" (everything war-related).

Source: www.rbc.ru/economics/23...

Madi Kapparov: Weekly Economic Update on Russia Weekly Economic Update on Russia

Week of July 7: South Caucasus in Russia's geoconomic strategy camarra.substack.com/p/madi-kappa...

Week of June 30: Banking crisis potential in Russia camarra.substack.com/p/madi-kappa...

Week of June 23: Iran and the North-South Trade Corridor camarra.substack.com/p/madi-kappa...

Madi Kapparov: Weekly Economic Update on Russia The Weekly Economic Update on Russia

Week of July 14: Russia's nationalization reserve and other means to stretch the war economy - they could last till 2029 camarra.substack.com/p/madi-kappa...

Madi Kapparov: Weekly Economic Update on Russia Weekly Economic Update on Russia

I am still using Twitter and this platform once in a blue moon. I don't write threads anymore. However, over on Substack, I post weekly updates on the Russian economy.

Most recent - waiting for the ru CB key rate decision: camarra.substack.com/p/madi-kappa...

Perhaps, that's is precisely the reason why we see many American political figures courting Eurosceptic parties and politicians in the EU. Russia does the same for a different set of reasons. Perhaps, Brexit had more than one foreign influence.

Unlike China, EU countries possess the human capital, history of technological breakthroughs, free capital markets, and investor rights protections necessary to pose a potential long-term threat to the US economic and technological dominance.

While it is easy to explain away DC's erratic behavior toward European allies by calling Trump a Russian asset, which he probably is, China is not the sole long-term threat to the US economic dominance. The other is the EU.

Trump’s idea of peace - a piece of Ukraine for russia, a piece of Ukraine for America, and piss for Ukraine.

Медведев не исключил появления новых регионов в составе России В составе России могут появиться новые регионы, как это было с ДНР, ЛНР, Запорожской и Херсонской областями, заявил зампред Совбеза Медведев. По его словам, опыт интеграции может быть востребован

"New regions may appear within Russia, as was the case with the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, said Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Medvedev."

With the reiterated intent, Russia makes clear that any ceasefire would be temporary at best. www.rbc.ru/politics/14/...

From Assad's Backer to His Sanctuary, Russia Has Been Humiliated - The Moscow Times Opinion | The Syrian people achieved what once seemed impossible.

My latest on Assad’s collapse, asylum in Russia, and what it means for Russia’s influence in the ME and Africa

Eduskunnalta 200 000 euron joululahja pappejaan Venäjällä vihittäneelle järjestölle – ministerin kotitielle 900 000 euroa Eduskunnan valtiovarainvaliokunta on saanut valmiiksi valtion ensi vuoden talousarviota koskevan mietintönsä. Julkaisusta käy ilmi myös hallituspuolueiden kansanedustajien jakamat joululahjarahat eli...

200k euros of Finnish taxpayer money was given to a Finnish religious organization that had priests ordained in Russia after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, reports Demokraattii. demokraatti.fi/eduskunnalta...

A Foreign Agent in Plain Sight: How Russia Conducts Its Influence Operations in the U.S. The Case of Nomma Zarubina

maligninfluenceoperations.substack.com/p/a-foreign-...

If you have tips or suggestions you can submit them anonymously to mio_tips(@)proton(.)me

@olgalautman.bsky.social and I did a deep dive into Nomma Zarubina, the alleged Russian intelligence operative (link in a follow-up tweet). As part of the Malign Influence Operations newsletter, we will be publishing deep dives into Russian and other influence agents, operations, and orgs.

On this day 30 years ago Russia launched an illegal invasion of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (ChRI) in an attempt to recolonize the free Chechen people. ChRI won that war against the empire without international support.

Image: Russian troops in Grozny in 1996.

Geopolitics with markets - Trump, Zelenskyy, Macron meet, defense stocks crash on the expectations of "peace." The example below is RHM. Oh, don't you ever change.

A Foreign Agent in Plain Sight: How Russia Conducts Its Influence Operations in the U.S. The Case of Nomma Zarubina

. @kapparov.bsky.social and I did a very detailed deep dive into the Russian agent arrested last month. Here is our investigation!

Also we just launched this substack exactly for these type of covert and malign influence operations, so please subscribe

Kazakhstan Must Break Free From its Economic Alliance With Russia - The Moscow Times Opinion | Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a summit for the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Astana.  However, for some Kazakhs, the Russian president’s presence in the c...

#OpEd The Eurasian Economic Union means Kazakhstan suffers from the sanctions on Russia and even inadvertently funds the war. It's time to leave, argues @kapparov.bsky.social.

However, there is at least one major Russian bank that remains only partially sanctioned and still could takeover Gazprombank's role in trade - Rosselkhozbank, Russian Agricultural Bank. It is not subject to OFAC's Directive 2. So unless that is sanctioned soon, the ruble might *technically* recover

Russia cuts gas to Austria in payment dispute Austria's biggest energy supplier is trying to recover damages awarded during arbitration from Gazprom by essentially stopping some payment for gas supplied via Ukraine.

3. A minor impact came from the OMV vs. Gazprom arbitration in Austria. OMV will recover 230 million euros in damages by offsetting the claim against invoices for deliveries to Austria ("free" gas). www.reuters.com/business/ene...

2. A large portion of Russia's shadow fleet that allows Russia to bypass the oil price cap was sanctioned by the UK. The fleet supplied Russia with a healthy foreign currency revenue stream and the UK is home to major shipping insurance companies (Jardine, Aon, etc.).

US hits Russia’s Gazprombank with sanctions Move in effect bans state-owned bank from global financial system in blow to payments for Moscow’s war effort

1. Gazprombank became subject to OFAC's Directive 2 under Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Directives, which bans transactions with sanctioned entities. Gazprombank serviced not only Russia's energy trade but also other trade with Western counterparts. www.ft.com/content/38a6...

It is difficult to estimate the full extent of the new round of sanctions yet. It'll clear up after Dec. 20 when Directive 2 comes into effect. The most obvious impact is reflected in the negative shock to the RUB/USD exchange rate driven by a combination of factors.

Importing Russian sanctions by Kazakhstan - the x-rate case: