Raphael Nishimura

I *really* hope ACS never gets to Trump's attention over the next few years...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer - AAPOR On behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), we write to express deep concern regarding the removal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Erika McE...

AAPOR Statement on the Removal of BLS Commissioner McEntarfer aapor.org/statements/a...

I approve this entire response! 😄
Especially how you folks are implementing this adjustment. I thought the blog post missed some of these details, but I understand you also need to keep it simple for a wider audience.

Why and how we’re weighting surveys for past presidential vote This piece explains why, when and how we are weighting our surveys on Americans’ past vote.

Past vote weight-ers, rejoice!!! 🎉

www.pewresearch.org/decoded/2025...

Black Sabbath, principalmente no começo, tem muito de uma pegada doom metal. Se eles não fossem os pais do heavy metal, certamente seria ao menos os pais do doom metal.

bsky.app/profile/poll...

Who in their right mind would poll Mamdani in a Democratic primary for president?!
Oh, right, of course! 🤭

Trump is threatening Brazil with 50% tariffs for no reason whatsoever -- It's Brazil that has a trade deficit with the US...

Add to that Brazil at 50% for no reason whatsoever, giving that Brazil is the country with a commercial deficit with the US...

I wouldn't hold my hopes on that:
"We don't need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America"
Like, they are not even trying 😅

Yeap, this should be the opposite of AAPOR/ROPER -- being a member of this counts against the transparency score

This has to be a joke, right?

Mamdani, Race, and Survey Design Ask the wrong question, get the wrong answer.

This week's E is for Epi newsletter: what the NYTimes' hit piece on Zohran Mamdani can tell us about the importance of good survey design.

Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/epiellie...

It's great to call attention to this source of survey error!
Just on a technical note: in survey methods, I think we would call it more generally error of observation or measurement error, under the total survey error framework, per Groves et al (2009):

Yup
bsky.app/profile/rnis...

BTW, I checked with some colleagues and turns out date of birth, and hence age, is on the voter file in NYC.

To be fair, not a lot of people questioned that chart on the Twitter either, afaik. Honestly, you were probably the only one I saw questioning this lol

Since I reposted this yesterday, I feel obliged to also post this important correction to the charts:

Very nice plot!!

L2 is the voter file vendor, but I'm not sure if the voter file in NY has age or not. If they don't, yeah, that would be modeled age.

Turns out it's much harder to poll when a large part of the electorate is new and/or young voters

Yeah, that's a challenge that I also face with teaching online too. I had to held a separate section of one of my courses just for an Australian contingent, but that meant me teaching late at night for their early morning.

@badsurveyq.bsky.social‬ is in the house! Make sure to tag them for all of your favorite (or least favorite) bad survey questions!

This is brilliant! And for photo/image sharing, bring back the fax machine!
Also, the survey research in me thinks: "Yay, make RDD great again!" 🥳

Yes! All these writers and journalists going solo on Substack is not sustainable for the consumers of this type of content.

I love how journalists and writers are getting an independent space to freely express themselves, but this Substack model is quickly becoming unsustainable for consumers of this type of media (even more so than the streaming model). I hope we start to see some bundling options at some point...

- @shiraamitchell.bsky.social is doing a very good survey statistics series at Gelman's blog: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/06/01/s...

This interview is a great lesson about liberalism and it brings hope that there is an alternative path in politics through grace and empathy.

Reminder that if these polls are using online opt-in panels, results for young people can be misleading.

www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Ah got it. Yeah, that makes sense.