Alexandros Gotinakos

DATIS project, funded by ELIDEK, participated with a presentation by @efteperoglou.bsky.social at EEPE & EKKE event on European Elections 2024, Political and Electoral Analysis, in Athens, on June 14.

The presentation was about the research results of DATIS (Deliverables 4.1, 4.2, 5.1) using @isspsurvey.bsky.social data with the title: “Sequential Mixed Mode Surveys with Mobile Phone Numbers for Increased Coverage”.

DATIS project, funded by ELIDEK, participated at the 78th Annual WAPOR Conference 2025, St. Louis, Missouri, USA, May 12-15, 2025, with a presentation by Professor @andreadis.bsky.social

Ending Political, Electoral and Social Issue Advertising in the EU in Response to Incoming European Regulation From early October 2025, we will no longer allow political, electoral and social issue ads on our platforms in the EU. This is a difficult decision - one

Meta ends political ads on their platforms in the EU by October because they don't want to comply with new transparency and targeting regulations.

The reasons given here are really weak. And if you do *not* allow these ads, you still need to define what they are.

about.fb.com/news/2025/07...

This paper (and @nathankalmoe.bsky.social & @lilymasonphd.bsky.social's online appendix that goes through SO MANY Qs) is so useful for scholars working in this area. It is also just a fascinating combo of under the hood but also big picture on how do we know things in political science.

Interesting article on the (strong) relationship between political ideology and sport preferences in the U.S.

New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

An Ideology by Any Other Name - Political Behavior The terms ‘liberal’ and ‘conservative’ are prominent features of political discourse in the United States, and many citizens choose to identify with one of these ideological labels. Yet, many citizens...

In "An Ideology by Any Other Name," Andrew Trexler & Christopher Johnson find that many Americans identify with ideological labels beyond “liberal” or “conservative.” They show these alternative labels shape political attitudes and vote choice. Read more:
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

"It's the economy, stupid"

Voters vote based on the economy.

But there are many economic performance indicators. Which matter the most?

This new paper shows voters react to growth, unemployment, inflation, & stock markets.

But the inflation plays the biggest role.

www.ifau.se/globalassets...

Abstract of the article "Partisan cueing and preferences for fiscal integration in the European Union" by Maurits J. Meijers, Björn Bremer, Theresa Kuhn and Francesco Nicoli. Published online first in West European Politics.

Table 1, displaying the expected effects of party cues on support for Eurobonds relative to the control group.

Figure 4, displaying the party cueing effects on support for Eurobonds by country.

Figure 5, displaying the party cueing effecs on support for Eurobonds by EU integration priors.

Online first: "Partisan cueing and preferences for fiscal integration in the European Union" by @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social @bjoernbremer.bsky.social @theresakuhn.bsky.social & @francesconicoli.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

#Academicsky #Polisky

political scientists democratising their institutions in the age of backsliding, talk about leading by example

Yesterday EPSS was founded, today we answer members’ questions.

A 🧵

1. Who formed EPSS?

EPSS was founded by a supermajority vote of the EPSA Council, made up of 3 EPSAL shareholders & 9 elected, appointed, or ex officio members.

1/

🚨 Big News for European Political Science 🚨

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of the European Political Science Society (EPSS): a new, member-led, not-for-profit association built to support our scholarly community.

🔗 epssnet.org

Here’s a thread with everything you need to know.

🧵

People tend to underestimate just how much public opinion is shaped by elite cue following. #Zaller

Who's left, who's right? Examining cross-national variations in the use of the left–right scale with anchoring vignettes - Comparative European Politics The left–right ideological position of individuals is a key variable in political science, often used to ease the complexities of political preferences into a single dimension. Despite its widespread ...

Some clear leftist and rightist traits (based on current political science) do not resonate with a large proportion of European citizens. The cultural elements of the left–right concept are not perceived in the same way across Europe link.springer.com/article/10.1...

The Bible Society recently published a report claiming that church attendance in England and Wales increased by more than half between 2018 and 2024. The revival was especially striking among young men, with reported church attendance jumping from 4% to 21% over this short period. As a quantitative social scientist who has studied religious change in modern societies for more than 25 years, I’m surprised – and sceptical. I do not doubt that the Bible Society acted in good faith, but they haven’t engaged with the mountain of evidence, some of it very recent, pointing to religious decline. The annual British Social Attitudes survey – widely regarded as the best and most reliable source of data on such matters – shows that the share of adults in England and Wales who said that they were Christian and went to church at least monthly fell by nearly a quarter (from 12.2% to 9.3%) between 2018 and 2023, the last year available. The Bible Society surveys suggest that churchgoers were 8% of the adult population in 2018 and 12% in 2024. The main Christian denominations (Anglican, Catholic, Methodist, Baptist) conduct and publish their own attendance counts every year. Those show that while churchgoing continues to rebound from the lows of the COVID lockdown, attendance at worship services remains substantially lower than it was in 2019, before the pandemic. In the Church of England, average weekly attendance is down about 20% from pre-pandemic levels, and the story is similar in other denominations.

What could be the problem with the data? Gold standard social surveys are based on random (probability) samples of the population: everyone has a chance to be included. The British Social Attitudes survey is one such example – and found that churchgoing fell by nearly a quarter from 2018-23. By contrast, people opt in to YouGov’s survey panel and are rewarded after completing a certain number of surveys. The risk of low-quality or even bogus responses is considerable. YouGov creates a quota sample from its large self-selected panel. The sample will match the population on a number of key characteristics, such as age and sex, but that does not make it representative in all respects. As quota samples do not give each person in the population a known chance of being selected, statistical inference is not possible and findings cannot be reliably generalised. To write (as in the Bible Society report) that because thousands of people participated in the two surveys, they “give a 1% margin of error at a 99% confidence level” is misleading. This study is not the first time such non-probability sampling has led to dubious findings. In late 2023, the Economist ran the story that one in five young Americans believed that the Holocaust was a myth, based on another YouGov poll. A study by the Pew Research Center showed that that finding was almost certainly fallacious, and the Economist added a disclaimer acknowledging the problem.

England is experiencing a churchgoing revival, according to a recent report based on nonprobability polls.

David Voas is skeptical. He explains that probability-based survey data doesn't point to a revival. Nor does data from Christian denominations.
theconversation.com/is-there-rea...

ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA.
ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA.
ALWAYS PLOT YOUR DATA.

(Yes I just found a mistake in some code that I would have caught by plotting my data)

Whose (future) democracy? Examining Inequalities in the Development of Adolescents’ Political Efficacy and the Mediating Role of Political Socialization - Political Behavior While democracy is meant for all, not all citizens feel equally confident to participate in it. This sense of confidence, often referred to as political efficacy, is important since it boosts citizens...

Not all teens feel equally confident in democracy. Between ages 12–16, internal political efficacy grows steadily, while external fluctuates. Early inequalities fade over time—peer and parent talks help boost confidence, but teachers have little impact link.springer.com/article/10.1...

🖤Are emotions in surveys shaped by social desirability?

➡️Marzia Oceno finds that respondents underreport negative emotions like anger & fear—and even positive ones like hope & pride are not immune to social desirability bias www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

Also available in Greek and Spanish now🇬🇧🇬🇷🇪🇸

Check this infographic and our report below ⬇️

In an experiment, Pew Research Center demonstrated that opt-in and probability-based surveys produced very different results about young adults' views of the Holocaust and abortion.

If you encounter what seems like an implausible survey finding, ask:
1. Were survey respondents selected randomly or was this an opt-in poll?
2. Could the results, especially for young adults, be driven by bogus respondents?

Keep this post in mind: www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

How has non-electoral participation in politics evolved over the last 2 decades in Europe?

This @tepsa.bsky.social infographic will give you a peek of our #ActEU comparative exploration.

And there's our full report too!

The quiet collapse of surveys: fewer humans (and more AI agents) are answering survey questions I show data on two trends undermining surveys: the collapse of human response rates and the increase of AI agents. I'll also discuss downstream implications and propose some possible solutions.

Fascinating substack post by @laurenleek.eu on the problem of declining humans and increasing AI agents in survey responses. This is going to become a huge issue in survey research!
open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...

Delighted that my paper with @kevincunning.bsky.social on "Still second-order national elections? Evaluating the classic model after the 2024 European elections" has just been published by @wepsocial.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140... 1/

Tornado warning? @aapor.bsky.social goes on! We just moved everyone away from the windows. @jennagiesta.bsky.social

Political Disillusionment, Sampling Selection, and Response Satisficing: Insights from the Collaborative Midterm Survey Friday, May 16th 4:15-5:45 PM Midway Suite 11 Curtiss Engstrom Alexandros Gkotinakos (presenter)

📈 Citizens who are dissatisfied with the political system may introduce bias into a survey by opting for 'acceptable' rather than true answers. Alexandros Christos Gkotinakos & @cwengstr.bsky.social examine the impact of this behavior & report on their findings myumi.ch/y1p44 #AAPOR2025

Join us on the last session of @aapor.bsky.social's last day for a discussion on the differences between Probability and Non-Probability samples, and its implications for survey research!

absolutely incredible things happening at #aapor25

good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨

What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?

We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.

Two main contributions...

🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc