GeoInsider

Once I have a bit more time and the character limits are lifted, I’ll be there too.

Sorry to my followers on BlueSky I know many of you expected me to be there, but I won’t be joining anytime soon, especially because of the character limits.
You know me I like to express myself clearly and without restrictions.
Thank you all for understanding.

Thanks so much for all the follows I've received here on BlueSky recently I really appreciate the support! I've promised several times to be more active here, but it's been tough. I'm already juggling a lot over on Twitter, and the character limit on BlueSky doesn't help either.

BREAKING: French authorities says the Cannes power outage this morning was caused by sabotage. Three of four pillars of a high-voltage pylon were sawn off. A criminal probe is underway. 160,000 homes were affected, but power is restored now.

Considering how chaotic X has become lately, maybe it's time for InsiderGeo to step up its presence on BlueSky maybe.🤔

Twitter / X is down

Just came across this thank you so much for the kind words and the mention, truly appreciate it!

After posting it on Twitter, I decided to share it here as well. I hope you will like it!

24/Could this lead to the Collapse of Iran regime?

The Iranian regime is not widely loved protests have grown in recent years.
If war destroys Iran’s economy, we could see mass uprisings.
But more likely: The regime cracks down harder, leading to a long, costly war for the US.

23/The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.

If Iran blocks it:
🔸 Oil prices skyrocket, risking a global recession.
🔸 Naval clashes with the U.S. & allies.
🔸 The U.S. have to use military force to reopen it.

22/The Worst-Case Scenario:

Iran goes all-in on building a bomb.
A regional war erupts missiles hit Israel, U.S. bases, and Saudi Arabia.
Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz causing an oil crisis.
The U.S. gets dragged into a prolonged conflict.

21/The Most Likely Scenario If Iran’s Nuclear Sites Are Hit

1/Iran’s nuclear program is delayed, but not destroyed.
2/They rebuild at secret underground sites.
3/Iran retaliates with missile strikes on U.S. and Israel bases.
4/Oil prices rise due to tensions.

20/How Stuxnet Worked:

Infected USB drives introduced the virus into Iran’s systems.
Stuxnet silently sped up & slowed down centrifuges, causing them to self-destruct while appearing normal to Iranian engineers.
Result? 1,000 centrifuges destroyed.

19/The most successful attack on Iran's nuclear program wasn't a bomb it was a virus,
a highly sophisticated cyberweapon, widely reported to have been developed by the U.S. and Israel, designed to sabotage Iran's centrifuges at Natanz.

18/Can the U.S. or Israel Destroy Fordow?

Israel alone? No, it lacks bombs strong enough.
The U.S.? Maybe, using GBU-57 bunker busters but it would require multiple direct hits.
Guaranteed destruction? Only with nuclear weapons, which isn’t an option.

17/What Happens If These Are Attacked?
Natanz/Fordow hit → Delays Iran but doesn’t stop them.
Isfahan hit → Uranium enrichment halts.
Arak hit → Risk of radiation.
Bushehr hit → Nuclear meltdown risk (Chernobyl style.)

16/Bushehr Iran’s Civilian Nuclear Plant
🔹 Built for electricity.
🔹 Not linked to weapons but could be risky to attack.
🔹 Striking it risks a nuclear disaster.

15/Arak: Iran’s Plutonium Pathway
🔹 A heavy-water reactor, potential plutonium source.
🔹 Iran disabled it under the 2015 deal but could restart.
🔹 Bombing it risks radiation contamination

14/Isfahan: Where Uranium Gets Ready for Enrichment
🔹 Converts yellowcake (U₃O₈) into UF6 gas for enrichment.
🔹 Without this step, Natanz & Fordow can’t work.
🔹 A prime target destroying it halts enrichment.

13/Why is it important?
🔹 Too small for civilian use suspected military intent.
🔹 Can quickly produce 90% bomb-grade uranium.
🔹 Even bunker-busters might not destroy it.

12/Fordow Iran’s Most Fortified Site:
High-security site built under a mountain.

What does it do?
🔹 Enriches uranium to 60% (originally 20%).
🔹 Harder to destroy than Natanz.

11/Why is it important?
🔹 Produces most enriched uranium.
🔹 Targeted by Stuxnet in 2010.
🔹 Key for bomb development.

10/Natanz Iran’s Largest Enrichment Facility:
What is it?
🔹 Iran’s main enrichment site, partially underground but vulnerable to attack.

What does it do?
🔹 Enriches uranium using thousands of centrifuges (up to 60% purity)

9/How Do Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Work?
1️⃣ Uranium mining & conversion → Turning uranium into gas.
2️⃣ Enrichment → Increasing uranium purity in centrifuges.
3️⃣ Fuel production or bomb-making → Based on enrichment.
4️⃣ Plutonium production → A separate bomb pathway.
👇

8/ If the U.S. or Israel strikes, main targets would be:

Natanz → Largest enrichment site, partially underground
Fordow → Deep under a mountain, hard to destroy.
Isfahan → Converts uranium into gas.
Arak → Potential plutonium source.
Bushehr → Civilian plant, risky target.

7/What Western Intel Suggests:

🔹 Western sources believe Iran has all components for a nuclear weapon.
🔹 Fordow’s secrecy raises concerns about military intent.
🔹 Iran may be keeping the option open to develop a bomb quickly.

6/Iran’s Official Position:
🔹 Iran claims their nuclear program is for peaceful energy & medical use.
🔹 Denies any intention to build a bomb.
🔹 States that IAEA access is limited due to sanctions.

5/IAEA have concerns on Iran’s Nuclear Program
Undeclared activities: Some nuclear materials are unaccounted for.
Lack of access: The IAEA says Iran isn’t fully cooperating.
Iran denies military intent, but transparency is lacking.

4/But how Fast Could Iran Get a Bomb?
Breakout time: 3 weeks to 1 month to produce enough 90% uranium.
Weaponizing it into a warhead could take months to a year.
If Iran goes for a bomb, the world might not know until it’s too late.

3/For U.S this is a red line but why?
Going from 60% to 90% is much faster than 0% to 20%.
-With advanced centrifuges, Iran could hit bomb-grade (90%) in weeks or even days.
-Once they have ~25kg of 90% uranium, they can build a warhead.
-This is why 60% is a red line.