Alan Cordova

The global boom in solar — with or without the US Despite the scepticism about renewables in Washington, falling prices for new panels are making a compelling business case around the world

“‘The world remains in an energy addition mode, rather than a clear transition.’” www.ft.com/content/c406...

58. Traded electricity wholesale markets are the worst way of deciding how to dispatch energy resources, except for all the others that have been tried.

Hanford, a Contaminated Nuclear Site, It Set to Be Largest US Solar Farm (Gift Article) Plans to transform Hanford, which was integral to the nation’s nuclear arsenal after World War II, had just begun inching forward when President Trump started his second term.

"In Washington State, a government-led effort has just started to build what is expected to be the country’s largest #solar generating station." www.nytimes.com/2025/03/05/b...

Big businesses step up to buy energy from new wind and solar farms Renewable developers say upfront agreements to buy power are increasingly vital to make projects happen

“‘We could just go out and buy it on the open market and have green electricity…but we said actually we want to be the reason that [wind & solar] parks are being built. So right now around ⅔ of our electricity is from new parks where we have helped by creating this PPA’” www.ft.com/content/f290...

E&E News: Wind and solar surpassed coal, but CO2 is still climbing. Here’s why. Renewable energy broke records last year, but so did gas generation. That's a climate problem.

“The burst of new gas [-fired power generation] pushed up greenhouse gases, offsetting modest #carbon declines from coal and establishing gas as the leading source of #climate #pollution in the power industry — another first.” subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eene... #globalwarming #climatecrisis

Natural sequestration of carbon dioxide is in decline: climate change will accelerate The rate of natural sequestration of CO2 from the atmosphere by the terrestrial biosphere peaked in 2008. Atmospheric concentrations will rise more rapidly than previously, in proportion to annual CO....

“Rate of natural sequestration of CO2 from atmosphere by terrestrial biosphere peaked in 2008. Atmospheric concentrations will rise more rapidly than previously in proportion to annual CO2 emissions, as natural sequestration is now declining by 0.25%/yr” rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Chart: Global clean industry investment fell sharply in 2024 Money to clean up steel, ammonia, chemicals, and other sectors dropped by more than half compared with 2023.

“Money for clean industry–related projects fell by nearly 60% last year compared with 2023 — even as investment in the broader energy transition grew to a record $2.1 trillion in 2024, per BNEF.” www.canarymedia.com/articles/cle...

Utilities want to power Big Tech's AI ambitions with natural gas. These are the data centers they're betting on. From the Midwest to the Southeast, electricity demand from Big Tech's AI data center projects has become so great that in some states, utilities want to build new natural gas-fired power plants to ser...

“The turn to #naturalgas reflects the current reality #datacenters face — they want more power than the electric grid can provide, and they want it ASAP.” pocket.co/share/33fa99...

My annual decarbonization presentation is here.

200 slides, covering everything from water levels in Lake Gatún to sulfur dioxide emissions to ESG fund flows to Chinese auto exports to artificial intelligence. www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations

"Total PJM RTO energy [load] is forecasted to be 1,328,045 GWh in 2035, a 10-year increase of 495,264 GWh," or 60% more than today's consumption www.pjm.com/-/media/DotC...

Breaking Barriers to Data Center Growth Data centers are booming, but power, supply chain, and sustainability challenges threaten growth. Here’s how companies can surmount the obstacles and meet the growing thirst for computing power.

"Hyperscalers…will generate approximately 60% of industry’s growth from 2023 through 2028, increasing their share of global demand for data center power from 35% to 45%…to realize growth, hyperscalers will need to spend $1.8T in #datacenter-related capex in US from 2024 to 2030." on.bcg.com/4hpNRzr

Batteries have Reshaped ERCOT’s Ancillary Services Procurement For most of their tenure on the ERCOT grid, batteries have largely made their bones supplying ancillary services as opposed to energy, but that is beginning to change.

"Batteries have not only changed the face of generation-focused ancillary services, but together with large flexible loads have substantially altered the disposition of Regulation Down...this type of transition...is very rare in power markets" blog.gridstatus.io/batteries-er...

U.S. Department of Energy Releases Updated 45VH2-GREET The updated model includes new feedstock, technologies, and assumptions in alignment with final rules.

New GREET model www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcel... and new domestic content guidelines home.treasury.gov/news/press-r... for all you tax credit nerds!

California vs. Texas: A comparison of battery energy storage market participation - Energy Storage California and Texas stand out as national leaders in existing and planned battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity. While both states share the goal of integrating renewable energy and stabilizi...

"Battery storage is increasingly setting the marginal price in ERCOT's RTM, with 55% of RTM intervals set by batteries in 2024...we expect that ERCOT will see some of the same dynamics as CAISO, with energy storage setting marginal energy prices in the DAM & the RTM" www.ess-news.com/2025/01/15/c...

US battery market faces possible ‘significant tariff impacts’: Clean Energy Associates With limited production capacity outside China, the consultancy’s Q4 2024 report sees heavily tariffed Chinese production setting the market price for lithium-iron-phosphate batteries over the next tw...

“'Thanks to limited ex-China supply & limited appetite by integrators & developers for [nickel manganese cobalt] & [nickel cobalt aluminum] batteries, tariff-inclusive Chinese import prices are likely to set marginal price of BESS for at least the next 2 years'” www.utilitydive.com/news/us-batt...

How batteries are already changing the grid : The Indicator from Planet Money Renewable energy, when it comes to solar and wind power, has always had a caveat: it can only run when the wind blows or the sun shines. The idea of a battery was floated around to make renewables ava...

Nice overview of #energystorage in California: n.pr/3PAkrml

"Investors, armed with billions of capital, find themselves at the crossroads of what to do next as pipeline valuations went south, as did return expectations, amidst these delays and added expense." newprojectmedia.com/ma-the-fight...

“As many as 80 new gas-fired power plants will be built in the US by 2030…adding 46 gigawatts of capacity — the size of the electricity system in Norway and nearly 20 per cent more than was added in the past five years.” www.ft.com/content/63c3...

AI has high data center energy costs — but there are solutions | MIT Sloan AI workloads have sent data center emissions skyrocketing. An MIT expert details ways to reduce energy use and promote sustainable AI.

"Already, #datacenters account for 1-2% of global #energy demand, similar to the airline industry...that figure is poised to skyrocket, given rising AI demands, potentially hitting 21% by 2030, when costs related to delivering AI to consumers are factored in." mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-t...

"ERCOT forecasts peak load growth of over 80% between 2024 and 2034...PJM forecasts peak load growth of over 30% between 2024 and 2034." investors.constellationenergy.com/static-files... #ERCOT #PJM

"Development of 500 MWac of #communitysolar over 10 years could contribute up to $1.76B to [Washington State's] Gross State Product (GSP), generate $76.49M in state tax revenues over a 10-year period, support 16,521 job-years" communitysolaraccess.org/wp-content/u...

Constellation Energy Nears $30 Billion Deal for Calpine Constellation Energy Corp. is nearing an acquisition of Calpine Corp., people familiar with the matter said, in what would be one of the biggest ever deals in the power generation sector.

Constellation looking to buy Calpine for $30B, just under 2x the value at which it was taken private in 2017 bloom.bg/3PqfgFF

"If positive use-case reports continue to bolster Gen AI’s value proposition, the challenges related to power and capacity are likely to intensify in both the short and long term, driven by increasing demand from corporate boardrooms and investors." www.bakerbotts.com/~/media/File...

A new electricity supercycle is under way Why spending on power infrastructure is surging around the world

4 forces driving #investment in #electricity #infrastructure:
1. #Decarbonization of power generation
2. #Electrification of legacy oil & gas applications
3. Overall rise in demand
4. Need for grid resilience to address extreme weather events
econ.st/4h3nQGc

Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025 Over half of Microsoft's $80 billion in spending will take place in the U.S., Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith wrote in a Friday blog post.

"@microsoft.com plans to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 [ending in June] on the construction of #datacenters that can handle artificial intelligence workloads...over half of the expected AI infrastructure spending will take place in the U.S." www.cnbc.com/2025/01/03/m...

Public Inspection: Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen and Energy Credit Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen and Energy Credit

Final #hydrogen rules out bit.ly/4fJy50Y - key changes are that "the hourly matching requirement doesn’t apply until 2030, and existing nuclear plants count as new zero-emissions energy if they are considered to be at risk of retirement." heatmap.news/climate/fina... #taxcredits

Utility-Scale Renewables: An Analysis of Pricing Inputs Our analysis indicates that power purchase agreement (PPA) prices are not expected to decrease significantly in the foreseeable future.

"A seismic shift in #PPA pricing is unlikely in the short to medium term. However, project timelines face clear headwinds, driven by extended #interconnection delays & lead times on critical components such as transformers" bit.ly/402Hk6C

The Summer Olympics Can’t Keep Up This Speed The heat will continue to rise and slow athletes down.

"...due to #climatechange, by 2040, as few as 10 countries will have the appropriate climate for the Winter [Olympic] Games." www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...

Silicon Valley’s Trillion-Dollar Leap of Faith Tech companies are spending as if AI’s transformative uses are a foregone conclusion. They’re not.

"Enormous sums of money are likely to continue flowing into AI for the foreseeable future, driven by a mix of unshakable confidence and all-consuming fear." www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...

Prepare for a Bumpy Year in Coffee, Oil and Other Commodities What I’m watching might give you the jitters.

"At the COP26 #climatechange conference in 2021 in Glasgow, the world agreed to 'consign #coal to history.' But it’s alive, omnipotent and omnipresent. In 2024, the world consumed a record amount, and 2025 will be a pivotal year to see whether a change of trend occurs." bit.ly/3PeYaKR