Demon

what newsletters you like?

$6b is just 1% of electricity bills. You ignoring that federal tax cuts can absorb this impact.

Grid modeling is difficult

#Energysky

though... guess you right on MISO. prices there have been much higher than what i see for lower 48.

also, think its do more w/ solar/wind costs reflect new build w/ higher T&D costs, while coal/gas is either operating or brownfield ops (like in Duke Indiana RfP)

To augment our PPA price sample, and to gain visibility into corporate PPA pricing (which is not well-represented within our sample), we present LevelTen Energy and Trio’s PPA price indices.

Pls speak w/ any level ten employee. their data is based on PPAs they help broker.

also check LBNL data on delta between third party PPA prices like level ten or trio

emp.lbl.gov/sites/defaul...

This is levelten data for corp PPA, which as I said earlier is inflated due to demand outstripping supply. Also corps going on levelten platform don’t have the negotiating power. Utility RFPs yield a much lower price

From utilities

No. New contracts are back to 30-40 range, maybe slightly up due to interest rates

agree on capacity value. But renewables haven’t become expensive, corporate PPAs are expensive because of high demand and limited supply. The cost to build solar, wind and batteries has been deflationary even compared to pre COVID levels

So u r saying its economics driven decision, they getting paid more for baseload power or capacity than in the past? And the delayed retirement is not due to delayed net zero plans?

@edmondmichelet.bsky.social looks like you know the answer. Wanna enlighten us

Nvidia is at 39x 2025 EV/EBITDA.

Tesla energy could be = $3Bx39 =$117B

So a tenth of their market cap!

Alrite… let’s take a crack at it. We need two numbers - 2025 EBITDA and EV/EBITDA.

They prob at $1.5B EBITDA in 2025 (25% gross margin, 10% opex). Let’s assume 2026 grows like 2025. So $3b in 2026.

The multiple is an art. let’s assume batteries sell like crazy like NVDA’s chips.

Me dumb.. was hoping for gravity to show up in prices

Oil? Heard we gonna drill baby drill

When does gravity show up?

Ha

Ha.. then let musk buy it.. for his utility of future plan

cash flows? I thought utes investors care about EPS growth and ROE

just list it and put shares in a US sovereign fund

Just ask ur ques here

That’s rich. Am hearing 6-8%

Not all heroes wear cape

Agree… ability to use roof solar when grid is down is the incentive

General practice for new admin or they don’t want interconnection innovation?

Come to #Energysky for more deepseek

But then… that was pre deepseek.

Post deepseek maybe we go back to a lower price point

Btw… Enphase and bunch of other inverters do this in the home, even w/o batteries. But then at best they are only managing surge loads from one AC or few appliances

Guess u mean this?
Grid forming inverters

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24ost...

Edison’s company GEV

“new CCGTs are costing 2,000 per kilowatt all-in and rising perhaps. Is your content still tracking at 30% to 35% of that new build cost?

…So I wouldn't think it's different than what you're saying.”

seekingalpha.com/article/4751...

Inertia to absorb volatile loads and make sure the grid runs at 50-60hz? Or u mean something else?