Richard Baldwin

Manufacturing jobs fall as Pres. Trump’s cost-raising policies (tariffs on inputs & deportations of workers) begin to work as expected 🤷‍♂️

Price hikes aren’t the only way to pass on the tariffs to American consumers 👇
>Levi Strauss will limit items for holiday shopping season
• Limiting selection should mitigate tariff costs, protect margins
• Strategy has been used by other brands including Hasbro, Nike

.📣 @ChrisGiles_
👉 “there was a 16 per cent drop in services exports to the EU in sectors where Brexit imposed new trade frictions “

✍️ @rbrtrmstrng
“Ninety deals in 90, no wait, 113 days, and we’re serious this time”
👉 The deadline, to absolutely no one’s surprise, was no deadline at all.

Talking my eBook "The Great Trade Hack" on CNN International!
video.snapstream.net/Play/1Cje19... @IMD_Bschool @cepr_org

This is why markets look through Trump‘s tariff announcements 🎩 @martinwolf_

Today is TACO Tuesday!
👉 As predicted in June, Trump chickened out (he lowered tariff rates and postponed his postponement)!
👉GDP growth slowly, inflation rising. He couldn't risk carrying through with his 2 April 2025 tariffs.

Do you think Donald Trump views yesterday tiff announcements as a huge success?

Why did President Trump chicken out yesterday on the deadline (pushed to 1 August) and on the rates (substantially reduced)?
👉 Because tariffs are pushing up retail prices; that can't be good for his base.

CEPR e-book launch: The Great Trade Hack by Richard Baldwin Richard Baldwin explores the key arguments from his new e-book, The Great Trade Hack: How Trump’s 2025 Tariff Blitz Fails and the World Moves On, published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (...

New video and discussion - must watch!
Richard Baldwin explores his new e-book, The Great Trade Hack: How Trump’s 2025 Tariff Blitz Fails and the World Moves On @piie.com @cepr.org @baldwinre.bsky.social
www.piie.com/events/2025/...

👉Peter Navarro is a protectionist, anti-China extremist but has no formal power.
👉Economist Hassett (NEC Director) a professor who was a moderate voice on trade in Trump I.
Miran (CEA Chair) is a Fin'l mkts guy who worked for Mnuchin in Trump I (the ultimate moderating voice in Trump I).

👉2 billionaire Fin'l Mkt guys (Bessent, Lutnik)
👉1 billionaire globalist with close biz ties to China.
👉Jamieson Greer was Chief of Staff to nationalist Lighthizer but he's young and a trade lawyer (usually don't push policy personally).

Trump trade advisors super MAGA! (not).
➡️Apart from Navarro, all more moderate on trade than Trump himself.

Trade nerds! Famous 1976 handwritten paper where Victor Norman anticipates the new trade theory, esp. Helpman-Krugman Heckscher-Ohlin-Krugman fusion. He gave it to me in October 1997 in Bergen.
See full story (amazing) in my Factful Friday from 4 October 2024 lnkd.in/e5Buz3WU

Or just the "last advisor in the room" approach to foreign policy? His tariff numbers seem to come from a random number generator, so why not his foreign policy?

Richard Baldwin on LinkedIn: Is comparative advantage valid in a geopolitical world? | 22 comments As The Trump Tariff Show, Season 2, is about to start, the age-old principle of Ricardian comparative advantage faces unprecedented scrutiny. Is the classic… | 22 comments on LinkedIn

This @baldwinre.bsky.social post is worth reading for those of us thinking about what the 'geopolitical' or 'geoeconomic' turn in international (trade) policy means — and how we can not only understand it but also consider the source of the field's established ideas. www.linkedin.com/posts/richar...

Richard Baldwin is on Bluesky.

Follow him at

@baldwinre.bsky.social

Trump’s expansionist designs prompt worried responses from foreign leaders Donald Trump’s fixation on expanding the nation’s territory has foreign leaders weighing a familiar question: Should they take him seriously? Many are trying.

YOU DON’T SAY. “A party that had lined up behind Trump’s ‘America First’ policy agenda to end wars, not start them, was also willing to support his expansionist musings.” www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

A lot to chew on in this issue of AEJ: Applied: #econsky

The Tech Coup: How to Save Democracy from Silicon Valley a book by Marietje Schaake An insider offers a "forceful critique...of Big Tech's steady erosion of democracy" (The New Yorker) and describes what must be done to stop it Over the past decades, under the cover of "innovation," ...

A propos of everything: My book is called The Tech Coup, How To Save Democracy From Silicon Valley ↘️ bookshop.org/p/books/the-...

You ask a lot of questions, and they're always good ones 😉

In the waning days of the Biden administration, I took one of my last opportunities to comment on U.S. Trade Rep. Katherine Tai's trade policy thoughts (also, I tried to lure her into posting on the IELP blog -- we'll see if she takes me up on it!).

must read

EU shipyards are fixing Russia’s Arctic LNG tankers Repairs and dry-docking enable Moscow to maintain market access for gas plant through the winter

This is an 🇪🇺 policy failure

Read a couple of the news pieces on UK AI plans which leave me none the wiser about what is actually going to be done, so I guess it will all be in the implementation - but in various fields through my career I've always been concerned by something that can't be easily described.

Why Trump tariffs will harm US industrial competitiveness
👉Factful Friday rerun!
US final good tariffs protect final goods firms but tariffs inputs harm them.
🔗https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trumps-tariffs-china-harm-us-manufacturing-richard-baldwin-pmmte/?trackingId=Pmct8VMqME8F24k%2F2iz2Sg%3D%3D

Trade nerds! Famous 1976 handwritten paper where Victor Norman anticipates the new trade theory, esp. Helpman-Krugman Heckscher-Ohlin-Krugman fusion. He gave it to me in October 1997 in Bergen.
See full story (amazing) in my Factful Friday from 4 October 2024 lnkd.in/e5Buz3WU

Or just the "last advisor in the room" approach to foreign policy? His tariff numbers seem to come from a random number generator, so why not his foreign policy?