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@knassre.bsky.social

Software engineer, electoral geography hobbyist, and puggle-lover.

272 Followers  |  103 Following  |  2,002 Posts  |  Joined: 03.04.2025  |  2.1676

Latest posts by knassre.bsky.social on Bluesky

Also JESUS CHRIST isn't she the one who was involved in those crazy SH lawsuits and then accused her accuser of murder?

01.11.2025 05:28 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Also I'm pretty sure she only won that race bc of jungle-primary fkery. It was her vs a normal Democrat, vs like 5 or 6 Republicans who each got less vote than the two Ds. Then in the general, all the Rs just voted for the fake Democrat.

01.11.2025 05:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

She's using her public presence to advocate for & increase awareness of a crucial step in fighting back against Trump. Why are you wasting energy complaining about it?

01.11.2025 05:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I thought Prop 50 was just for the CONGRESSIONAL districts?

01.11.2025 05:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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TIME’S RUNNING OUT‼️

They count on us not showing up. Vote #YesOnProp50 β€” get your ballot in by Nov 4

31.10.2025 21:23 β€” πŸ‘ 6763    πŸ” 2103    πŸ’¬ 132    πŸ“Œ 72
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New poll…

01.11.2025 01:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1499    πŸ” 372    πŸ’¬ 59    πŸ“Œ 23

Umm no I didn't. What do you think I was mentioning in point C, or in the "go to the hospital" part of the analogy?

Point being, Democrats did a risk analysis and decided they had a better chance of holding the 3 seats this way than in succeeding at getting the veto referendum off the ground.

01.11.2025 02:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If they go more than 5 or 6, they're gonna start needing to diluting their VRA districts. However, what they should DEFINITELY do is mess with the borders of Valadao's district even more (give him Salinas).

31.10.2025 23:17 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

And if they had tried to fend off their gun-wielding attacker, or run away, they get shot in the stomach anyways.

31.10.2025 23:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Analogy: the GOP held a pistol to the Democrats and offered them two choices:

A) Shoot them in the stomach, but they can potentially try and reach the hospital before they bleed to death.
B) Shoot them in the foot, but they won't be allowed to go to the hospital.

Democrats chose the foot.

31.10.2025 23:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

C) Democrats were more confident they could hold onto their 3 endangered OH seats than they were that they could successfully challenge the extreme 13-2 map, which would GUARANTEE that all 3 lose.

31.10.2025 23:13 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

A) It helping her (by like 1%) doesn't offset the fact that it's still a terrible gerrymanderin.
B) They "approved" it because if they didn't, the GOP was going to pass a SIGNIFICANTLY worse map (that's not conjecture, it is literally what was about to happen, we've even seen the map).

31.10.2025 23:13 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Virginia's Senate has now passed the constitutional amendment that'd allow Dems to redistrict VA, joining House.

So Dems completed step 1: passing measure this week.

Step 2: keep the House Tuesday.
Step 3: pass this again in January.
Step 4: win a referendum in the spring.

31.10.2025 20:41 β€” πŸ‘ 822    πŸ” 196    πŸ’¬ 11    πŸ“Œ 8

Kamala Harris on Jon Stewart's podcast: "I mean, are you fucking kidding me? This guy wants to create a ballroom for his rich friends while completely turning a blind eye to the fact that, that babies are going to starve when the SNAP benefits end in just hours from now?"

31.10.2025 22:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1237    πŸ” 290    πŸ’¬ 22    πŸ“Œ 12

AND with independent candidates who siphon a noticable chunk of the vote from the D share.

31.10.2025 21:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Esp since OR is a place with a lot of history of Democrats doing worse downballot.

31.10.2025 21:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

New WaPo/ABC poll:

45% of Americans blame Trump and congressional Republicans for the shutdown. 33% blame Democrats.

By a 2-to-1 margin, Independents blame Trump and Republicans over Democrats: 46% to 23%.

31.10.2025 20:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1104    πŸ” 333    πŸ’¬ 62    πŸ“Œ 26

Also, if CO went to another ballot initiative, it would need to win with I think 55% of the vote. That's doable, but very difficult since you need EVERY Democrat and D-leaning independent to vote yes on it (vs CA/VA where the prop will probably win even if they underperform the D vote by 5-10%).

31.10.2025 20:57 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

- WA is maybe possible for 2028, but the processes in place make it difficult for 2026
- OR I don't know if they should, bc that's a bit risky
- CO can put up a ballot prop (and EASILY gain 2 more blue seats, 3 if greedy), but it would probably be voted on during the Nov 2026 election

31.10.2025 20:57 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

NY has its own mess of legal hurdles which the Dems are trying to get around; they need to get around the courts which are mostly Cuomo appointees who blocked more extreme D gerrymanders (while Cuomo also approved GOP gerrymanders in the NY state senate).

31.10.2025 18:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

OR/WA/CO are trickier. They have safeguards against gerrymandered that first need to be dismantled. And bumping up Oregon from 5-1 to 6-0 means putting some D seats in jeopardy. And Illinois can definitely go 15-2 without endangering anyone. The good bets for Dems are CA, VA, IL, and MD.

31.10.2025 18:40 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨The woman being assaulted by ICE, in front of her 16 y/o daughter, IS here legally. She just got her SSN and was scared. She could not remember the number to repeat it. The child screaming in horror will NEVER be the same after today. 1/2

30.10.2025 22:20 β€” πŸ‘ 1217    πŸ” 821    πŸ’¬ 66    πŸ“Œ 42
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The Polymath President 🀑

@mediaite.com
www.mediaite.com/politics/tru...

30.10.2025 22:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1779    πŸ” 463    πŸ’¬ 197    πŸ“Œ 49
Image of a hypothetical Maryland congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect an eight-to-zero Democratic majority in 2026 and flip the Republican-held 1st District. Every district has a unique color and is overlaid atop a road map with county borders shown. An accompanying chart shows that Kamala Harris won all eight districts by at least 10 percentage points in 2024 including seven of those districts by at least 15 points. Three of the most heavily Democratic seats have majority-Black populations, an increase from two districts on the current map.

Image of a hypothetical Maryland congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect an eight-to-zero Democratic majority in 2026 and flip the Republican-held 1st District. Every district has a unique color and is overlaid atop a road map with county borders shown. An accompanying chart shows that Kamala Harris won all eight districts by at least 10 percentage points in 2024 including seven of those districts by at least 15 points. Three of the most heavily Democratic seats have majority-Black populations, an increase from two districts on the current map.

Maryland is one of the few states where Dems could redraw their House map to respond to GOP gerrymandering.

Every seats on this hypothetical map is at least Harris+10. Contrary to some Dems' concerns, this is possible while *adding* a third majority-Black seat davesredistricting.org/join/fc524d3...

31.10.2025 14:41 β€” πŸ‘ 179    πŸ” 53    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 3
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In just the last couple of days, the Dem candidates in both #NJGov & #VAGov have seen their numbers tick upward in @fiftyplusone.news's polling averages.

Sherrill has gone from +6 to +7, and Spanberger from +10 to +11.

Not a huge shift, but runs counter to any "tightening" narratives.

31.10.2025 16:18 β€” πŸ‘ 70    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 3
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"We are African. We are New York City. And we are voters."

31.10.2025 15:00 β€” πŸ‘ 6028    πŸ” 963    πŸ’¬ 84    πŸ“Œ 43
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the tone deafness is beyond parody

31.10.2025 17:30 β€” πŸ‘ 11791    πŸ” 3132    πŸ’¬ 1934    πŸ“Œ 793

somewhat-reliably elect a black Democrat since that 27% accounts for a huge swath of the primary electorate. Much of that 57% white population is Republican voters, and the biggest concentration of white Democrats in the district is within the western half of Richmond.

31.10.2025 08:11 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The downside to this map, relative to the current one, is that district #4 doesn't become a VRA district anymore (#3 is still fine because of the AA population in all those southern rural areas that got swept up into it). #4 becomes 57% white, 27% AA. But, I'd wager that in practice it'd still

31.10.2025 08:11 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

So the only major communities that get really split up from most of their neighbors are the Fredericksburg surroundings, and the inner core of NoVA.

31.10.2025 08:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

@knassre is following 19 prominent accounts