Today, @joerirogelj.bsky.social, member of @esabcc.bsky.social, spoke at the
@europarl.europa.eu's conference ‘From Promise to Action – 10 Years of the Paris Agreement’. He highlighted the role of science in climate policymaking, the impact of disinformation, and the outlook for the future.
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
28.01.2026 08:48 — 👍 133 🔁 70 💬 8 📌 6
A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why.
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Today, ESM2025 officially comes to an end!
Since 2021, our European consortium has been building a new generation of Earth System Models to support mitigation & adaptation strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement. Watch these clips of our final video to see how far we've come!
🧵👇
#ESM2025isOver
Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social said:
"COP30 leaves us between a rock and a hard place […] These NDCs have come in hesitantly, inadequately and unambitiously. They move the needle, but insufficiently to confidently avoid 1.5°C or even 2°C of global warming.”
There's lot to be worried and concerned about.
It is good to see that some things are gradually (but so incredibly slowly) moving in the right direction. /end
My last reflection on the scientific framing is a nice reference to the decade-long work we carried out as part of the @unep.org #emissionsgap report tracking mitigation progress and estimating global warming.
Those have been lowered from 4C per-Paris to 2.3-2.5C (or even a bit lower) today. /7
The next sections then reconfirm the Paris Agreement temperature goal, the Glasgow Climate Pact's resolve to focus on 1.5C, but critically also more openly discuss the risks of overshoot and the need to limit it. /6
22.11.2025 15:42 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
The acknowledgement of the IPCC's centrality in providing the best available science of a nice shift from past years where it could even not be thanked for its work. /5
22.11.2025 15:42 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
The decisions then start with a strong reaffirmation and commitment to multilateralism and the Paris Agreement.
Nice to read.
Would have been even better to see it lived. /4
It continues highlighting key mitigation benchmarks, including the remaining carbon budget, with numbers that seem terribly outdated.
Historical emissions in 2020 already added up to 4/5 (80%) of the total carbon budget for 1.5C with 50% chance.
Today, more than 95% of the 1.5C budget is used. /3
The preamble opens highlighting the current shortfall in emissions reductions, including a reference to how the world failed 5 years ago to close the pre-2020 gap, a reference to the reductions expected from developed countries, but not the 15-30% reduction below baseline for developing regions. /2
22.11.2025 15:42 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
New text @cop30brazil.bsky.social provides a glimpse of where #COP30 might land.
Some reflections on references to science and evidence. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
COP30: "Best available science" = IPCC is back
The second draft "mutirão" text "recognises the centrality of equity and the best available science…as provided by the IPCC"
⚠️Current pledges and policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions put the world on a high-risk climate track, towards warming levels of 2.8°C by the end of this century warn @joerirogelj.bsky.social, @robinlamboll.bsky.social & @j-bird.bsky.social.
📒 ow.ly/cpTr50Xq1X1
#COP30
In 2009, the Maldives’ underwater cabinet meeting showed the world the reality of rising seas. 🌊
As Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social notes, it helped put the 1.5°C target “front and centre.”
16 years on, its message is more urgent than ever.
COP30: Study reveals “highest possible ambition” for countries' climate pledges
With COP30 kicking off on Monday, a new paper by Julia Schönfeld and Professor Joeri Rogelj provides a framework for assessing countries’ climate pledges 🧵
Learn more: ow.ly/CiB050XnMK2
Stories abound these days showing that global warming exceeding 1.5C is now part of science's best estimate.
What does that mean for the #ParisAgreement 1.5C goal?
A good time to revive a thread about a piece we wrote earlier this year on this topic in @science.org 👇🌍🌡️
Two years ago, the @esabcc.bsky.social published its advice on the EU's 2040 emissions reduction target. We indicated a 90-95% reduction relative 1990 levels.
Today, EU climate ministers agreed on a 90% target, with an 66.25-72.5% reduction as part for its new NDC for 2035.
It has been a privilege to contribute to this report as a lead author for the 16th year running.
04.11.2025 22:07 — 👍 11 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Today is the official launch of this year's @unep.org #EmissionsGap report.
It's title says it all
OFF TARGET
that's true for progress, NDCs and implementation
We explicitly highlight how delays in global emissions cuts mean that holding warming below 1.5C is not possible anymore.
The pursuit of limiting warming to 1.5C, however, remains imperative albeit from above instead of from below.
We show new NDCs lower the highest global warming projections but fall well short of limiting warming below 1.5C.
04.11.2025 16:17 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
What is the current state of climate action? What do latest country pledges add up to?
And how much global warming are we in for? 🌍🌡️ 🔥
For the 16th year in a row, we publish the @unep.org #emissionsgap report.
As usual, I looked the assessment of the global gap and its global warming implications.
Grantham Institute Director of Research Professor @joerirogelj.bsky.social was lead author on Chapter 4 of the report, which also includes contributions from Imperial’s Dr @robinlamboll.bsky.social.
Read the report in full here: ow.ly/V7Zy50XmtCz
OUT NOW: we revisit the pivotal moment when science, institutions and politics aligned to deliver the UK’s #NetZero target. At a time of political divergence, the evidence for #ClimateAction remains clear. Evidence-based #ClimatePolicy is more relevant than ever. @granthamicl.bsky.social
13.10.2025 12:57 — 👍 12 🔁 6 💬 2 📌 0
OUT NOW: we revisit the pivotal moment when science, institutions and politics aligned to deliver the UK’s #NetZero target. At a time of political divergence, the evidence for #ClimateAction remains clear. Evidence-based #ClimatePolicy is more relevant than ever. @granthamicl.bsky.social
13.10.2025 12:57 — 👍 12 🔁 6 💬 2 📌 0
In this context, this forthcoming @granthamicl.bsky.social shortfilm on the UK’s net zero journey will offer a timely reflection on how science, institutions, and politics aligned to deliver evidence-based #ClimatePolicy serving the public interest. 2/2
bsky.app/profile/gran...
Next week, we reflect on how science and society shaped the UK’s #NetZero target. As political consensus wavers, the scientific evidence underpinning the need for rapid #ClimateAction remains robust and unequivocal. 1/2
09.10.2025 13:51 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
Joanna Haigh seen from behind the cameras, with two members of crew either side.
Joeri Rogelj seen from behind the camera, sitting ready to interview
Theresa May ready to interview, seen from behind the camera and lighting equipment
COMING SOON…
In 2019, the UK made history as the first major economy to commit to net zero by 2050.
But, while the science hasn’t changed, political consensus is fracturing.
We can’t wait to share our new film & to tell the inside story of the UK’s climate target
Stay tuned…
👀13 October
