Deelan Jariwala

Anecdotally, the GEFS corrected westward with Melissa well-before the GFS did. Not sure how much of a contribution that could be, but I'd imagine its something given the relatively low number of storms.

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

With about 80% of the precincts reporting I've seen enough. GDMI - Google DeepMind is going to win the seat for best track model in 2025. The race for best intensity model is still too close to call, but GDMI is right there with the consensus and OFCL. Quite a remarkable campaign.

Yesterday, #Podul moved over #Taiwan as a 95 kt #typhoon.

A unique feature seen w/ TCs near Taiwan is a blowup of seemingly cold convection (<-80C) as core moves over the island.

Turns out it's mostly thick cirrus w/o much sfc precip due to vertically propagating mountain waves. Diagnosed below⤵️

Further west ensemble members have stronger ridging over the eastern half of North America. However, members with stronger ridging in this region also tend to have a more intense system over the southwestern Atlantic! HAFS-A shows that this is a product of flow becoming more WNW with height.

Are those what became these plots? The TC real-time model products are severely underrated imo

I'd like list a couple pet peeves of mine that regular folks & professional mets have done this #hurricane season that is poor form:

(1) Naming storms before they are actually named.

(2) Sharing deterministic model forecasts (including AI models) beyond 5-7 days.

Allow me a mini-rant to explain:🧵

😬 yeah unfortunately ATMS does not have enough horizontal res needed to resolve inner core features in TCs like #Erick.

Nice TS Storms post by Naufal Razin shows footprint of SSMIS imagers on overall TC microwave coverage.

Microwave coverage peaked in 2015, w/ SSMIS ~60% of current coverage data.

Just earned a block, sorry

Aaaand I was immediately blocked for this quote-retweet. Really weird behavior, lol

These are important constraints and many people discussed these during the previous hurricane season. I would say it's mildly concerning that a scientist would recognize these issues and proceed to use the model regardless as the basis of their forecast, but that's just my opinion.

With MDR SSTs exceeding virtually every year in the historical record in 2024, it shouldn't be surprising that the model spit out an unusually high value. This is *exacerbated* by AGW, as the model uses mean SSTs out to 2007, as opposed to anomalies!

This is a pretty strange and uncalled-for reaction to someone making a valid point about that seasonal forecast! A statistical model, as described in Kozar et al. 2012 and used in the UPenn forecast, will tend to struggle when provided with data outside of its training dataset (I.E. extrapolation).

Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency White House aims to end NOAA’s research office; NASA also targeted

BREAKING from @science.org: The Trump admin is seeking to kill nearly all climate research at NOAA, its climate science agency.

Its near-final budget proposal would end all NOAA research labs, academic institutes, and regional climate centers. And it wants to fully end the NOAA Research division.

On the bright side, I guess this is some free extra-early public commentary to help guide future improvements :)

Out of curiosity -- what's the process of developing these new graphics? Do they come about by recommendations of social scientists primarily or forecasters? I know meteorologist do a lot on the communications side but at the end of the day, that's not really the degree's expertise.

Do you have a version without the paywall?

Closest to band 7 today -- it would be cool if you could visualize these with more modern colortables and whatnot but I don't think the actual data files are extant (or at least don't exist in a format that can easily be read)

Shortwave right? It says 3.4-4.2 microns

Satellite loop of Hurricane Carmen (1974) rapidly intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, as well as its landfall and decay over Louisiana. These pictures, taken by SMS-1, are some of the earliest examples of enhanced longwave infrared imagery that I know of.

From what I was told, the NHC will be using Gulf of Mexico until given some sort of notice or directive to make the switch to Gulf of America (which they anticipate to be coming in the next few weeks).

Not sure what the SPC is doing or if this is just a forecaster going rogue to spark controversy…

Seems like it comes down to where the NPAC jet deposits a ridge in some regards (is it in the Gulf of Alaska poleward or the Western US/near the coast?). We'll see how this plays out but with the MJO crossing into the Pacific, I'd probably lean towards the ECMWF knowing the GFS's habits here.

Original thread worthy of an update to show evolution of this low on IR from 19 to 22 December.

An attempt at #tropical #transition was made, but as it shed frontal features, marginal SSTs prolonged length it took for organized deep convection to develop, & window was too short for classification.

(This is going to sound really silly) I didn’t know about Lily until a month ago or so when I had a dream about a storm of that sort in the Central Atlantic in December which meandered for quite some time and got rather strong. @1900hurricane.bsky.social helped me identify it as Lily lol

Right now, home in the Oranges for winter break, but only until the first week of January lol

And not because I expect this to overperform...

Fully expecting this to be the largest snowstorm I experience this year

I’m liking this one a little better than the others I think

Perhaps of the subtropical nature!

Probably not likely to go anywhere interesting, but it’ll be interesting to watch one or more cut off lows in the central Atlantic over the next week as they meander over the subtropics south of strong ridging.