Chris Fogarty, PhD

The drought effects did indeed seem discernible recently: bsky.app/profile/cycl...

High-resolution Sentinel satellite views over New Glasgow and area - two cloudless snapshots: Aug 17 and today, Oct 6 showcasing the fall colors.

Nice plots Brain. What are some of the key roads/infrastructure around Miami area that are to likely be impacted by the 'moderate' flooding expected Oct 8?

@hail4breakfast.bsky.social

Normal conditions before fire/foliage change (Sept 2):

View of George Lake fire as of Saturday Oct 4. Note the fire break around edge by dozers (looks like winding logging road). Foliage color change apparent as well. #nswx

Noticed that as well on my stroll - here late. Took a couple snaps.

Low temperatures last night around Nova Scotia. Lows across PEI were in the 4 to 7C range. #nswx #pewx

Cooler airmass today ... this afternoon large cumulus cloud buildup and likely showers into evening with sunny intervals. Don't be shocked if you see some small hail (ice pellets) during the showers with temperature drop below 10C. Low freezing level around 4500 ft (1300m). #nswx #pewx

#Humberto and #Imelda are so close to each other that their circulating winds cancel each other out in a calm “col” area in between them.

🇧🇲 Bermuda needs to be on alert however as Imelda will likely cause flash flooding and damaging waves from Wednesday into Thursday.

Clear as a bell out there today and quite warm. #nswx #pewx Temps in C. 25C = 77F.

Comp of satellite imagery from a) late Aug '25 (before fall colors), b) late Sept '25 and c) late Sept '22. Presence of fall colors more prominent and earlier than normal ('22 was near normal) this year - possibly changing sooner due stress from drought and cooler/dry nights. #nswx #pewx #nbwx

Fine where it is if it keeps the storms away from land.

Jet stream steering them that way this year

Model forecast for middle of next week showing general position and possible cloud pattern associated with Hurricane Humberto and TD9/Imelda. Atlantic Canada not expected to have to contend with these storms, but will update if that changes.

Rainfall totals from recent weather system (mm). #nswx #pewx

I also have an updating radar loop from the Azores at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

😁nice!

Chain Lake (2nd) Halifax this afternoon with water level about 1m/3ft+ below normal.

Chilly night - here were some low temperatures early today. #nswx #pewx

The drought has been so pronounced that the effects are discernible in satellite imagery. Here is a comparison with mid September last year. Note the yellow/brown agricultural lands compared to generally greener ones a year prior.

Update on local sea surface temperatures (C)...running above normal for a while now. It is important to maintain knowledge of water surface temperatures this time of year in the event of an arriving TS/hurricane. **None forecast here at this time**. OF label key: novaweather.net/FNMOC_OFA_ke...

Here is an update on the 90-day rainfall amounts ... a couple pockets had <60 mm (~2") - areas around the Bay of Fundy region basically. Essentially, those spots can be said to have only received 1/4 the normal summer rainfall.

Good reminder. I always assumed it went westward only *to* the Leeward Islands.

From the 'cool' file 😊 : While browsing through some very high-rez satellite imagery I spotted this effect of low cloud/fog in a stable air mass moving past an island in the Bay of Fundy. I've seen this effect before and it has analogies to the wake behind a speed boat.

Summer 2025 clouds departure from normal. Gray areas are where the summer was cloudier than normal and orange/yellow areas are where is was less cloudy than normal.

Water temperature analysis - situational awareness as a humid oceanic (southerly) wind circulation develops for Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia and also as we head into the midst of hurricane season. No storms on the horizon at this time though. #nswx #pewx

It is quite rare for the Hawaiian Islands to be impacted directly from a tropical storm or hurricane but 'Kiko' may bring some windy/rainy weather there next week. Also - when the Pacific Ocean is busy with tropical cyclones, the Atlantic is usually quiet and vice versa.

Two black images show up on my screen so not sure what the deal is.

Fernand has juuuust a slightly smaller wind field than Erin did in the Atlantic.