Raymond Hicks

Also thrilled to see @petercontibrown.bsky.social excellent work mentiond.

Big day! 🚨 My work with Cristina Bodea on [central bank independence](www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) just got cited at the [Supreme Court](www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25...)

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law? The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.

Read more: goodauthority.org/news/can-cen...
#Econ #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #RuleOfLaw #CentralBanks

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law? The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.

Central banks are meant to be independent. But what happens when the rule of law erodes?
New @goodauth.bsky.social post by Cristina Bodea & @arpie71.bsky.social breaks down why central bank independence relies not just on legal design—but on democratic institutions that protect it.

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law? The Fed and other central banks function best when politicians let them do their mandated job.

Can central banks and sound money survive a collapse in the rule of law?

Read our latest on the importance of sound money.

goodauthority.org/news/can-cen...

GitHub - history-lab/hlapiStata: Stata package to access History Lab API Stata package to access History Lab API. Contribute to history-lab/hlapiStata development by creating an account on GitHub.

We’ve just released new Stata (github.com/history-lab/...) and R (github.com/history-lab/...) packages that make it easy to pull History Lab’s text and metadata directly into your favorite statistical tools.

Learn more about what we do at lab.history.columbia.edu!

The final possibility is a multilateral version of the above. This would just be the WTO. Whichever of these occurs, we can be sure that victory will be claimed.

A second possibility is a return to RTAA-type bilateral negotiation governed by something like the principal supplier rule. A country who supplies the most of a product to the US can negotiate for a lower rate but all countries will get the lower rate.

The first, and most problematic, is bilateral negotiations that differentially reduce tariff rates. As @kevinhorourke.bsky.social has been worried about, this destroys nondiscrimination.

This means that firms affected will lobby for a return to a higher rate with all the same potential issues as with lobbying for lower rates. The final step is unclear. I can think of 3 possibilities.

This is a amplified continuation of that with firms "lobbying" for lower rates on existing lines.
The second step will be from the opposite direction. If a universal 10% tariff is applied, some products will see a reduction in tariffs.

We are now seeing the first step: bsky.app/profile/pwna.... In Song Kim and Helen Milner argue that some domestic firms will lobby for lower tariffs. US government carves out new tariff lines with a reduced rate to help while old line rate is kept higher to protect other firms.

A couple of weeks ago, I started writing something up on how with the "reciprocal" tariffs, we would end up back in nearly the same place as before, except victory would be declared and the tariff schedule would be touted as the greatest thing ever, despite not changing.

this is exhausting

So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like:

For the WTO to survive, countries need to respond _within_ its framework. Ideally, the Contracting Parties would meet and vote to suspend all concessions to the US. They could also vote to add an amendment nullifying non-discrimination in the event that one party violates it unilaterally.

Article XXIII (nullification) was not sufficient. Instead, the US sought remedy under Article XXV (Joint Action). Czechoslovakia agreed and the Contracting Parties ruled that both countries were free from obligations to the other.

In 1951, the US petitioned the GATT to suspend its concessions with Czechoslovakia. It argued that "because we can not reasonably anticipate an improvement of our commerce with Czechoslovakia so long as the present state of relations between us exists" (history.state.gov/historicaldo...)

It is uncharted territory. Even before the GATT/WTO the RTAs and Treaties of Commerce guaranteed non-discrimination. I don't think any trade agreement has provisions for violations such as this. How the world and WTO respond becomes vitally important for the future of the global trade regime.

I will never complain about the review process again. (From Ian Stewart's Visions of Infinity)

I should have read the fine print when the U.S. replace MFN with Permanent* Normal^ Trade** Relations^^.

* Timeframe not guaranteed
^ HA, Your mileage may vary
** Yeah, this one still works, for now
^^ Quality of relations not specified

Zombie institutions could have "afterlives," but little power. Zombie internationalism sees a slow, stumbling transformation, and decreased trust in international agreements and global institutions.

Trade wars are accelerating the decline of international economic governance. But instead of collapsing, global trade institutions are lurching forward in a zombie-like state. What happens next? Julia Gray describes our coming era of half-dead internationalism

this is exhausting

So Trump calls me up and he's like "tariffs are off" and I'm like:

GitHub - arpie71/dropbox Contribute to arpie71/dropbox development by creating an account on GitHub.

Version 2 of my dropbox command is out. This tool locates a user’s Dropbox folder automatically and adds an option to search a secondary drive before moving to the primary one. Installation instructions at github.com/arpie71/drop.... (Thanks to
@kevinhorourke.bsky.social for suggesting changes)

Canada initiates WTO dispute complaint regarding US tariff measures Canada has requested WTO dispute consultations with the United States regarding new tariff measures applied by the United States on goods originating in Canada. The request was circulated to WTO memb...

Canada has challenged Trump's tariffs at the WTO. Clearly Trump won't care since the US can block any ruling (by appealing "into the void"), but Canada is also making a statement about the need to play by the rules.

www.wto.org/english/news...

YouTube video by R.E.M. - Topic Exhuming McCarthy

I've been thinking about this song a lot: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Az5d...
I'm waiting for a Democratic politician to attempt a "decency" moment rather than a "gotcha" moment.

Any parallels? "Selling Swamps Exchange..Leading Issues Tumble as Wall Street Assails the New Tariff"

I'm thinking of starting a "today in (recent) history" feature, reminding everyone of all Trump's idiot moves during the one major crisis of his first administration. But then I already missed February 27, 2020, when he said "it's like a miracle, it will disappear"

Applications for Archives as Data are open until the end of March! 📅 Decisions will be announced shortly after. Don’t miss this opportunity—submit your application today! lab.history.columbia.edu/content/work... #ArchivesAsData #DigitalHistory #OpenData

Non-coders can also explore and download thousands of docs from the CIA, NATO, State Dept., etc. on our new website: lab.history.columbia.edu

Disclaimer: I am part of History Lab and am biased but this is a wonderful resource for declassified US government documents as well as documents from IOs such as the UN, NATO, and the World Bank.