William Bowe

Tasmanian Labor just bought itself an extra year in opposition

Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.

Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes

Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

That's the plan

Podcast #153: Tasmania’s election landscape Ben is joined by William Bowe from the Poll Bludger to discuss the latest Tasmanian state polls and go through Tasmania’s five electorates one by one, discussing the race and possible winners…

For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes

Tasmanian election: YouGov poll and election guide - The Poll Bludger A new poll finds Labor well placed to emerge from the Tasmanian state election as largest party, but well short of a majority.

YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...

YouGov: 67-33 to Labor in South Australia - The Poll Bludger A rare South Australian state poll finds Labor on course for one of the biggest landslides in Australian electoral history.

A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...

The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.

Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

Late counting: week three - The Poll Bludger Resolutions imminent for the remaining outstanding lower house seats, which likely just means Bradfield and Calwell.

Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...

Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

They're drowning in it

It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going

2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...

Senate counting: week three - The Poll Bludger A second attempt to model the Senate outcome, with some finer points concerning the composition of the cross-bench chiefly at issue.

Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...

Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck?

Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...
William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...

Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

My database records 13: ten Labor (Plibersek, Leigh, Albanese, Rishworth, Husic, Dick, Thistlethwaite, Rowland and Chalmers) and three Nationals (Chester, Joyce, Webster). Rishworth an interesting case: she gained Kingston from the Libs in 2007, and redistributions have done her more harm than good.

Queensland is ALP 2, LNP 2, GRN 1, ON 1, and NSW, VIC and SA are ALP 3, L-NP 2, GRN 1. With the territories status quo, likely final numbers are ALP 30, L-NP 27, GRN 11, ON 2, plus Lambie, Pocock, Babet, Tyrell, Thorpe and Payman.

Late counting: the Senate - The Poll Bludger A look at the other aspect of the Labor triumph: a Senate in which the balance of power has been titled distinctly leftward.

According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...

Forget the lower house, the game-changing shift could be Senate's tilt to the left The Coalition looks set to be reduced to 27 seats — two fewer than at any time since the Senate assumed its current size in 1984.

Labor won a landslide with barely a third of the vote. Now all eyes will move to the Senate, with a shift leftwards on the cards if the Coalition's disastrous lower house vote is anything to go by.

With polls closed on the eastern seaboard, the Poll Bludger's live results feature is in business: pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

"As per 2022 federal election preference flows with the exception of One Nation and Family First preference flows which were set at 2024 Queensland election levels." This means they've bumped up the Coalition's share of ON preferences from 64.3% to 73%.

Final DemosAU poll: 52-48 to Labor. Sample 4100, so useful breakdowns by state and region. demosau.com/wp-content/u...

Interesting article on preference flows at Federal elections and in recent polling, plus projections of results on Saturday under various possible flows #auspol

Going with the flow - The Poll Bludger Amid talk that One Nation might prove the Coalition's salvation, an in-depthlook at how preferences might flow.

A post on the election's great imponderable: preference flows www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/01/g...

The ‘X factor’ playing out in Dutton’s own Brisbane seat New polling suggests the Coalition is fending off a push by Labor to target its seats in outer suburban Brisbane, including the electorate of Dickson.

A second poll for the day from DemosAU has a collective result for Bonner, Dickson, Forde, Longman and Petrie: ALP 27 (-3.2), LNP 40 (-1), Greens 13 (+1.4), One Nation 7 (+0.5), Trumpet of Patriots 2 (-3). TPP: LNP 53 (-0.4), ALP 47 (+0.4).
www.afr.com/politics/fed...

I don't know if they've changed it, but for the past few months they have been giving the Coalition a higher share of One Nation preferences than they got in 2022