Matt Keer

Who knows? It’s a blank canvas, so dead handy for DfE to use as a conversation piece / space filler in these meetings

Otherwise, DfE would have to let on what their plans actually are, & that would Never Do

Policy makers should consider how to increase capacity in mainstream schools so that they can better support all pupils. This could be for example effective partnership working with other services or supporting schools to introduce SEND Hubs with ongoing support to implement them effectively.

The Sutton Trust mentions ‘SEND hubs’ only once in their report & they don’t define the term, so it’s basically choose-your-own-adventure www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/u...

Thanks Isabelle - you might also find this post worthwhile, looking at the insane variation in SEN unit / RB funding - some are funded better than special, others are funded on a beanbag room & single TA basis www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...

‘Your pre- mulched AI slop is important to us, please hold’

The Kremlinologists amongst you should probably note the deadline for response - 14 January

Why are we engaging? We want to have an open conversation on points and ideas organisations have raised to help inform how we shape the policy in the White Paper. This is not a formal consultation. A public consultation on some aspects of our SEND plans will be launched alongside publication of the Schools White Paper. To help process and analyse responses efficiently, we may use artificial intelligence (AI) tools to identify themes, trends, and patterns in the comments received. All AI generated outputs will be reviewed and validated by experienced analysts to ensure accuracy and context. AI will not make decisions or recommendations. Its role is purely to support human-led analysis.

More detail here - unclear whether all participants in this 'conversation' will have their written input rammed through a LLM; there's a document on the online sessions that looks more promising

consult.education.gov.uk/digital-comm...

Two things from the DfE SEND 'conversation' docs:

- The 'conversation' will be about five single-word principles, & ideas raised by stakeholders - not the Department's own specific proposals

- In a novel take on the word 'conversation,' the DfE may use AI to parse written responses from families

here's hoping ;-)

I do wonder what’ll happen when EHCPs are pared back and EPs are unshackled from statutory assessment duties to spend more time supporting schools

The most recent costs I've seen are about £3k-£3.5k per unit per annum (rental & s/w updates), dependent on whether it's a one-off or bulk procurement

image shows a aeated medical profesional leaning forward talking to a young girl with a long darn braid, colourised in green

NEW POST: In an SNJ exclusive, @rachel.stopsafetyvalve.uk highlights how ADHD and Autism “Right to Choose” assessments have been paused in at least nine NHS areas, as ICBs tell their contracted private providers to stop offering new appointments www.specialneedsjungle.com/a...

SEND funding reforms will be immensely painful—but the current situation is chaotic and sinking fast - Special Needs Jungle A stark warning that reforms for SEND funding reforms will be immensely painful—but the current situation is chaotic and sinking fast.

If you found this interesting or worthwhile, then you seriously need to have a word with yourself. If you want more on SEND funding, then have a gander at this, at @spcialndsjungle.bsky.social /end

www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...

And the £14 billion bit - the estimated cumulative DSG deficit that OBR estimate will be there in April 2028?

No rebuttal, no plans announced to deal with it, those plans might come soon, or they might not

Simpsons screengrab, where Disco Stu points to an exponentially increasing area chart labelled "Disco Record Sales" from 1973 to 1977, apparently unaware that disco will become as popular as Ebola from the early 1980s onwards

So the £6bn part of this alleged 'SEND timebomb' might not exist, because there might not be any extra deficit for Whitehall to mop up from April 2028, for reasons DfE won't explain

Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme

The DfE have been a bit shirty about the OBR's financial projections, because they don't take into account the broad, sunlit uplands that await us when they implement their SEND reforms

The reforms that they've provided no meaningful information about thus far

Local Government Association press release: Responding to the Government saying it will fund the full cost of SEND provision from within central government departmental spending from 2028/29, Cllr Amanda Hopgood, Chair of the Local Government Association’s Children, Young People and Families Committee, said: “While it is positive government has committed to absorbing the costs of SEND spending from 2028/29 – and we look forward to clarity on how this will be funded – this does not address existing deficits, which are pushing many councils to the financial brink. “In the provisional Local Government Finance Settlement, we urge the Government to write off these deficits - both the current accumulated deficits and any future deficits expected up to and including 2028/29 - and to fully fund all associated costs such as home to school transport over this period, ahead of setting out wider, comprehensive reform of the SEND system in the Schools White Paper.”

If you're still awake & haven't committed seppuku yet, April 2028 is when the combined DSG deficit leaves its limbo state and lands.... somewhere

It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2

But LAs are nervous

This is the combined DSG deficit that's being accumulated over time by councils. It was £2.2bn in April 2024. From published out-turn data, I think it'll be £3.8bn in April 2025. And my best guess for April 2026 is a £6.1bn deficit

OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion

So that's the £6bn bit of the Guardian's '£20bn time-bomb'

The other £14 billion? That's covering a different time period, and it's the OBR's estimate of accrued DSG deficits over time - from 2018 through to the end of FY 2027-28, when the 'switch' occurs

But it's a glaring indicator of intent to pare back statutory SEND provision

These guys worry about perverse incentives: it's hard to believe they'd sign off on bringing future SEND deficits back into Whitehall without a sturdy stick, otherwise LAs are free to spend without direct consequence

The language is super-vague, presumably because relevant Whitehall departments (DfE, MHCLG, HMT, possibly DHSC) haven't worked out yet who will pay the tab for any SEND deficits that LAs rack up from 2028, and how they will pay for it

Extension of the Dedicated Schools Grant Statutory Override – The government will set out substantial plans for reform of special educational needs provision early in the new year to deliver a sustainable system which – first and foremost – supports children and families effectively. The 2025 Spending Review provided investment for SEND reform. Future funding implications will be managed within the overall government DEL envelope, such that the government would not expect local authorities to need to fund future special educational needs costs from general funds, once the Statutory Override ends at the end of 2027-28. The government will set out further details on its plans to support local authorities with historic and accruing deficits and conditions for accessing such support through the upcoming Local Government Finance Settlement.

The DSG deficits sit in accounting limbo. Until y'day, they were due to land back on council balance sheets in April 2028, which would have wrecked / further wrecked many councils' financial position

The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028

Since 2018, councils have spent more on high-needs SEND than the DfE has given them via the DSG - recently, a lot more

OBR (optimistically) expects council DSG deficits in one year (FY 2028-29) to be £6bn

It's this in-year deficit that will be 'switched' from April 2028

The government will take over full responsibility for special educational needs spending from local councils, it was revealed at the budget, prompting warnings that the Department for Education could be facing a £20bn timebomb in two years. The Office for Budget Responsibility said the annual costs of special educational needs and disability (Send) spending in England would reach £6bn a year by 2028, increasing the urgency of a potentially decisive overhaul of Send provision in a schools white paper expected early next year.

This figure is bollocks. Although no-one knows exactly how much central & local government spend on SEND, it's at least a 50% underestimate, easily checked.

The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else

Councils get allocated education funding via the DfE's Dedicated Schools Grant. This includes funding for SEND provision that educates and trains children and young people

Some is delegated directly to schools & academies to spend, some goes via to LAs to allocate for high-needs provision

This article's a mess - largely because comms around the funding change has been a mess

Allocation of the educational component of SEND funding is the ultimate responsibility of the DfE, and always has been

Thread (apologies in advance for the 'stop getting Bond wrong!' energy)

BCP council have always been very enthusiastic consumers of external SEND legal services, to no-one's obvious benefit

Their most recent financial reporting shows that they're paying the same firm for legal services out of the DSG itself: if that's not a coding error, then it'll take some explaining

80% of LAs now have a cumulative deficit on their DSG

But many of the LAs that still have a DSG surplus are statistically & demographically similar to BCP: very urban, distinct pockets of deprivation & wealth, surrounded by shire counties (eg Southend, Portsmouth, Bradford)

Worth looking into why

Yeah, they're fucked. Proportionately, BCP has a bigger DSG deficit than anyone other LA in England, by miles

But these guys seem to have fucked up in a uniquely bad way, in comparison to close statistical neighbours: BCP is under a DfE statutory direction to improve its SEND services

At most, 1.4% of pupils in mainstream independent schools have an EHCP

Pupils from mainstream independent schools make up 1% of local authority EHCP caseloads

These percentages have not changed in years

Hundreds of deaf children misdiagnosed in NHS ‘disaster’ Many were wrongly given the all-clear when they needed hearing aids or cochlear implants, permanently stunting their development

🚨 Exclusive: A damning inquiry will reveal tomorrow how NHS leaders ignored warnings over unsafe hearing tests 12 years ago leaving 300 children permanently disabled.

@camillakingdon.bsky.social labels it a "disaster" and calls for a change in leadership:
www.thetimes.com/article/2f23...