Naph Torrance

Arsenal Season Preview

And would def recommend the previews btw, link is here:
www.thetransferflow.com/p/arsenal-se...

Saw this simple table in @thetransferflow.bsky.social Arsenal Season Preview, and IMO neatly summed up what we've tried to do this summer.

Obvious caveats to the stats apply, but we've prioritised

Goals & Assists✅
Impact ✅
Availability ✅

Fingers crossed it translates

Perfect weekend listening. Thank you!

I think it is very evident on Twitter. (Which, increasingly I am finding unbearable)

I also think this is another angle that has really stirred the pot in the past weeks/months

Ah amazing thank you. And def didn't want to take for granted you'd do one! Just think they're hugely valuable to get to know the player – really appreciate the work you & the gang do ❤️

Hey @towells.bsky.social @alexcollings.bsky.social @watman.bsky.social really enjoying the Snapshots (as usual) – was wondering, was there a Mosquera one that I missed? Or was he skipped?

Well there's someone I totally forgot existed.

Sure - either side is a gamble. There are no non-risks.

I would personally take fewer, better.

I think you need a balance of the two, obviously.

Liverpool don't compromise on resale value (apart from v small ticket buys like Endo) and it allows them to e.g. sell Minamino for profit, make money back for Darwin, get a stupid fee for Diaz, etc. And – unfortunately – they've won plenty.

He doesn't need to replace Trossard straight away, he'd be taking Sterling's place. Which he could comfortably do.

And he is an example, not a definitive suggestion. There are absolutely players able to be 5th or 6th attacker for Arsenal for £30m.

I'm not a scout or analyst, but there are undoubtedly players available for £25-35m who could improve on the ghost of Raheem Sterling and a declining Trossard.

Igor Paixao was linked previously. Assane Diao went to Como for under €15m. There are always players. Shopping outside PL helps.

It was made public by Newcastle journos he "wasn't for sale at any price" just weeks ago. So that's not particularly compelling.

If you want to do the specifics of the fees the figures we largely know are what I put before, totalling £184m.

Say Isak is £150m, there's still leeway for a winger.

Right so like I said this is all speculation, but you’re taking the highest end of the Isak fee and lower end of an Eze fee.

If I were to do the same Liverpool allegedly offering £130m and Parish saying they won’t sell for under £68m

Not really worth debating hypothetical specifics

Obviously these are not concrete so not definitive, but don’t think that’s right.

£52.5 + £63.5 + £68 =£184m.

Not to mention wages around £450/500kpw.

Even extremely conservatively there’s about £20m and £75kpw for a winger.

To look at it another way: I would prefer to spend £100m+ on Isak and sign a cheap promising winger than sign Gyokeres, Eze, and Madueke for roughly the same money.

Yes those things are v good! I’m pleased about them.

But don’t think that last point is quite true:

Our STs are 26, 27, and a crocked 28.

Our CM options are 18, 26, 26, 26, 29, 31 (and poss adding 27).

But then why sign a 27yo to do that? Your ST options are 27, 27, and 28 (and crocked).

That's bad squad planning IMO (and that's aside from concerns about his playing style matching ours). Get someone with high ceiling and potential resale value. And that doesn't have to be Sesko fwiw.

That’s precisely my point, if one of them is available in an otherwise tricky ST market.

Plus talent aside, there are other parts of the deal I dislike. If he flops no one is taking a 29yo on £200kpw (apart from Saudi, whom we have never sold to). Too big a risk for me.

All the reporting suggests we closed the door once Newcastle got CL.

Maybe we did enquire, but we didn’t force it at all - which is what Liverpool seem to have done.

Yes maybe it ends up in new contract, but would have liked us to push not count ourselves out.

Sure, but that 3rd position is prob costing another £60m. Big outlay.

On VG: I’m sure you know the caveats about his goal record as do I. I think it’s pretty clear he’s not elite and at 27 is unlikely to become elite. He’s prob good - which may be enough! But this is where that 2nd point comes in.

I think there are prob 3 elite attackers moving this summer: Wirtz, Isak, Rodrygo (each with own risks tbf).

We’re seemingly going for numbers (CF, Winger, AM/LW) over an elite option.

I see the logic, but it’s a choice that when combined with other things eg age of player is a big risk IMO.

Ok. Feel free to disagree.

Will be very glad if it pays off.

In attack, broadly

Arsenal have made big gambles this summer.

On quantity over elite quality
On older players w/ little resale value
And perhaps the biggest, on a DoF who ‘prizes relationships over data’

Not what I would do and I worry it’ll set us back long term. But if we win something major, will have paid off 🤞

Newcastle’s implosion would be SO much more enjoyable if they weren’t selling their best players to our biggest competitors.

Sure it's childish, but that screenshot made me snort

Last season was a weird & unusual one. And even then, Isak in for Merino @ 9 puts us in a pretty great position.

Put simply: I'd take Isak over 2 Gyok/Noni/Eze-tier players. You may not, that's fine. On price, same thing really which is roughly same outlay.

Right. Plus I doubt they're "best friends" at boardroom level now they publicly bullied Newcastle out of Ekitike, too.