Mike Murphy

a man in a suit and tie is holding a brown jacket . Alt: john travolta in pulp fiction looking around in confusion

when you wake up at 6.30 anyway

We need an inset in which a normal human does it simultaneously.

A good friend had a baby a couple of years ago so I briefly signed up for fb with a burner email, told it I was a middle aged dude and got served a torrent of utterly hateful content, much of it targeting Trans people.

food systems are the leading cause of deforestation and biodiversity loss on land, freshwater use, and overfishing, and the number two cause of climate change after energy use

Stats enthusiasts: I like to weave narratives using insights cross-tabbed from the latest poll

Stats experts: I only estimate conditional expectations and I keep a gun nearby so I can shoot them if they're from a distribution I don't recognize

Google says attackers used 100,000+ prompts to try to clone AI chatbot Gemini Google says private companies and researchers are trying to copy Gemini’s capabilities by repeatedly prompting it at scale.

a model reveals its empirical distribution when it is prompted. this is not a security problem, as much as Google tries to make it one. it does not own what it claims to.
www.nbcnews.com/tech/securit...

Policy should not force US consumers to pay more for worse cars

It's also somewhat weird to me that complexity economics gets labeled as outside the "mainstream" when Ken Arrow was a major figure in the early Santa Fe work on it.

Structural modelling is a hard topic to write about in a newspaper article but if you want to write a critique of "mainstream economics" you should probably talk to at least one economist who you feel meets that definition.

Yeah, going to Russia so young- might have been very different if he'd had some support. I saw him years ago when he was back at hibs briefly- he was visibly unfit but curled in a free kick from 35+ yards out and you got a brief flash of the talent he still had.

The Global Collapse in Funding for the Food Insecure On a planet that is producing more food per person than ever before, it is a moral stain that so many still suffer malnutrition or face the risk of famine. And, if sustained, the recent collapse in gl...

Blog: The Global Collapse in Funding for the Food Insecure

www.cgdev.org/blog/global-...

New blog: The Global Collapse in Funding for the Food Insecure

Picture: Countries receiving more or less annual humanitarian support than predicted from number of people food insecure ($bn) 2017-2025.

Thread...

An asymptotic curve

Recursive self-improvement just around the corner

Also extremely British to award a 6/10 to a complete failure

This man has some extremely correct opinions, I would trust him with my life.

Important

Plants *do* need CO2 to grow.

They also need a given temperature range.

The damage to *current* crop yields from increasing average temperatures and more erratic rainfall *already* exceeds the gains from increased CO2 fertilization and will continue to worsen

tl;dr- burning coal is bad for plants

The Insurance Crisis Is About to Get Even Worse The Trump administration will soon make it the official policy of the US government that greenhouse gases don’t endanger Americans’ well-being and therefore don’t need federal regulation. Insurance co...

"Rising costs, along with insurers abandoning risky areas, have pushed millions of Americans into state-run insurers of last resort [...] These are often both expensive and skimpy, and most don’t have enough money to cover potential claims. About 14% of US homes have no insurance at all"

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump is privately musing about exiting the North American trade pact, people familiar with the matter said, injecting further uncertainty about the deal’s future into pivotal renegotiations involving the US, Canada and Mexico. The president has asked aides why he shouldn’t withdraw from the agreement, which he signed during his first term, though he has stopped short of flatly signaling that he will do so, according to the people who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions. A White House official, asked about the discussions, described Trump as the ultimate decision-maker and someone always seeking a better deal for the American people. Discussion about potential action amounted to baseless speculation before an announcement from the president, the official said.

USMCAexit being discussed

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BYD passed Ford in 2025 on total vehicle sales — a historic inflection. This isn’t about China “winning”. It’s about legacy auto discovering, too late — that once battery cost curves flip, incumbency stops mattering. This isn’t disruption coming. This is disruption already priced in. #Bettrification

Today we’re launching Open Climate Risk, a fully open option for U.S. building-level climate risk data. It’s unique because it allows you to see not only risk scores, starting with wildfire, but also the complete underlying dataset, methods, and codebase. carbonplan.org/research/cli...

Nick Walsh special, no point in even playing the game with him in charge.

Absolute joke

Severe impacts on Toamasina Madagascar likely from cyclone #Gezani impact

I mean Polymarket trades are public

"Farm Bankruptcies Continued to Climb in 2025" www.fb.org/market-intel...
"Chapter 12 bankruptcies increased for the second year in a row, reaching 315 filings in 2025. This is a 46% increase from 2024"

stayed up super late tonight, writing quote posts, draggin guys

Tkt Smart GIF ALT: Tkt Smart GIF

Hasn't really worked *yet*

Everyone working in development economics should read this chapter.

They provide evidence that what works in development is less about finding universally good levers and more about designing interventions compatible with locally embedded social structures.

www.nber.org/papers/w3481...

Cyclone #Gezani looking likely to have very severe impacts on Toamasina in Madagascar #ClimateCrisis