James Kirkham

New study analyses the tipping points of different #Antarctica drainage basins.

A first threshold, 1–2 °C above preindustrial levels, triggers the long-term collapse of 40% of marine ice in West Antarctica!

Marine-based sectors in East Antarctica are at risk of losing stability at 2–5 °C.

❄️🧪🌊

Figure 1 from the paper.

3/ We analyzed 18 major Antarctic ice drainage basins using the ice-sheet model #PISM, gradually increasing global mean temperature to map their long-term response.

Result: different regions respond very differently to warming.

Photo showing a tall, jagged ice front of the Ronne Ice Shelf in West Antarctica rising above the calm surface of the Weddell Sea. Credit: Torsten Albrecht / PIK.

🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!

Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.

We found: it’s not one — it’s many.

📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...

📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Tread below 🧵👇

NEW ANALYSIS: China's CO2 has now been 'flat or falling' for 21 months

* Down in 2025
* Still below Mar 2024
* Clean energy wave a key factor

If this is China's peak (TBC) it's the climate story of the century so far…

www.carbonbrief.org/...

Rising temperatures could to lead to the loss of thousands of glaciers per year, with up to ~4,000 vanishing annually under high emissions.

1.5°C could halve this loss 🧵

@landervt.bsky.social @harryzeko.bsky.social @matthias-huss.bsky.social @davidrounce.bsky.social @lilianschuster.bsky.social

Why Greenland is indispensable to global climate science With no Antarctica-style treaty to protect Greenland, a US takeover could mean scientists lose access.

As world leaders, businesses and civil society gather in #Davos for the #WEF, here is a timely reminder why Greenland is indispensable to global #climate science 🧪

via: Prof Martin Siegert in @theconversation.com

theconversation.com/why-greenlan...

INSTANT invites you to a webinar on climate science diplomacy with Dr. James Kirkham (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative).

"Climate science diplomacy: What is it? How do YOU do it? And how can we make policymakers care about ice?”

📅 30 January, 12:00 CET
scar.org/scar-news/pr...

Amazingly, Zahawi only got round to deleting the below after the press conference announcing his defection to Reform.

Trump moves to pull US out of bedrock global climate treaty, becoming first country to do so | CNN The Trump administration is pulling the United States out of the bedrock treaty that underpins international cooperation on climate change, along with dozens of other global bodies.

Trump moves to pull the US from bedrock climate treaty, UN IPCC and other int'l orgs & UN agencies. In doing so, the US becomes the only country to withdraw from this particular climate agreement dating back to 1992 (UNFCCC). www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/c...

Merriam-Webster’s human editors have chosen ‘slop’ as the 2025 Word of the Year.

Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it!

👇Commentary in @theconversation.com about recent efforts to downplay and diminish #science at #COP30

🧪🌊❄️

Earth’s frozen regions are sending a clear warning about climate change – but politicians are ignoring it The warning lights from the cryosphere have been flashing red for several years and governments and policymakers ignore this at their peril.

As scientists 🧪 who regularly attend UN #climate summits, we've noticed efforts to downplay, confuse and dilute the latest scientific findings, especially from the cryosphere ❄️.

This is alarming.

More details in @theconversation.com

theconversation.com/earths-froze...

@geogdurham.bsky.social

Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change Many mountain glaciers will disappear with warming. Here the authors assess how many glaciers will disappear per year under different warming scenarios, finding that a peak in glacier loss will happen...

#Glacier #extinction rates will peak within decades, with thousands of glaciers disappearing each year by 2040s. Peak extinction rates in #Alps will be reached in the 2030s.

Urgent policy action can still prevent thousands of glaciers from being lost per year.

🧪❄️ www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Join us at UNEA-7 this Thursday Dec. 11 on International Mountain Day:

Moderated by @unep.org's Mr. Lewis Pugh, the event will focus on cryosphere changes, regional solutions for mountain ecosystems, and frameworks for assessing losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

🔗 Livestream below!

2025 is on course to be joint-second warmest year.
The #C3S Climate Bulletin reports that November was 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the third-warmest November on record. The 2023–2025 average is likely to be the first three-year average exceeding 1.5°C.

Find more info ⬇️

G20 DECLARATION: Fascinating to see this doc explicitly "welcome" the "global stocktake" from COP28, which included the call to "transition away from fossil fuels"…

This comes after it proved impossible to secure similar language at COP30, which was also chaired by Brazil

Reflections on COP30 Global Mutirão final decision text:

YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown

🎞️ After COP30 fire and floods: AMOC shutdown 🔥🌊

Our event on #AMOC shutdown was interrupted by the fire at #COP30 yesterday – but this is an important message so we wanted to make sure you heard it.

▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-0e...

@rahmstorf.bsky.social @iccinet.bsky.social

YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown

Despite 🔥 and 🌧 at #COP30, we are happy to share the latest info on #AMOC shutdown from @rahmstorf.bsky.social, including perspectives from Iceland and UK govs filmed after the COP venue was evacuated!

Important messages to heed as COP30 negotiations go to the wire!

🧪🌊

youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA

It's day 12 of #COP30 and finally we have movement on the text.

In summary, it looks like the small minority of opponents of transitioning away from fossil fuels have been allowed to run roughshod over this text.

But let's dive in...

COP30 "overshoot": The latest draft "mutirão" text makes what would be a first-ever COP reference to limiting "overshoot" of 1.5C

"reiterates its resolve to pursue efforts to limit [warming] to 1.5C [and] to limit both the magnitude and the duration of any temperature overshoot"

I was just sent this image of the aftermath.

YouTube video by AFP News Agency Fire breaks out in pavilion at COP30 climate talks: AFP journalists | AFP

Fire breaks out at #COP30, venue evacuated

- AFP

youtu.be/v-6GB6WC70s?...

Three curves (carbon dioxide, temperature and sea level) showing historical climate changes covering the last 2000 years.

Climate variations over the last 2000 years provide valuable context and help answer questions about how unusual the recent changes are.

Now with added global sea level rise: climatelabbook.substack.com/p/climate-ch...

Graphics: ed-hawkins.github.io/climate-visu...

1.5°C and the Perils of Ignoring Science: Tipping Points in the Cryosphere, Their Impacts, and How to Avoid Them Cryosphere science shows irreversible ice loss is underway, but can be slowed with emission cuts. At a side event, scientists warned negotiators often soften evidence, urging choices guided by science...

For more insights and photos, visit our coverage of "1.5°C and the Perils of Ignoring Science: Tipping Points in the Cryosphere, Their Impacts, and How to Avoid Them"

➡️ enb.iisd.org/1-5-C-perils...

#COP30 #cryosphere

James Kirkham, Ambition on Melting Ice High-Level Group, who stressed #glacier melt is no longer a distant concern

He cited research showing between 2000 and 2023

• the world lost about 5% of its glacier mass
• some regions, such as Central Europe, lost one-third or more

Cryosphere science shows irreversible ice loss is underway, but can be slowed with emission cuts.

At a #COP30 side event, scientists warned negotiators often soften evidence, urging choices guided by science

Highlights ➡️ enb.iisd.org/1-5-C-perils...

#cryosphere #glaciers #climate

For anyone currently in #Belem for #COP30 strolling down the river on your rest Sunday thinking I really fancy a spot of science and storytelling... I will be speaking (and floating!) at sunset (6.30 pm) on the Guama River about polar ice loss and the global ocean in a warming world. Come and join!

COP30 COMPLAINTS: At the "subsidiary bodies" closing plenary earlier, many countries were "concerned" & "disappointed" over conclusions that failed to endorse IPCC as "best available science" & failed to fully reflect latest research

Here's what they said 🧵

This should be one of the major stories of #COP30, with a much more ambitious text quashed by a small number of states