Dr. Jeff Masters

Tropical Cyclone Horacio: Earth’s first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026 » Yale Climate Connections Located over the remote South Indian Ocean, Horacio is not a threat to any land areas.

We have our first Cat 5 of 2026: Horacio in the remote South Indian Ocean. It's not a threat to any land areas.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/trop...

One NOAA tide gage is forecast to see major coastal flooding from the coming Nor'easter, during the 1 a.m. Monday high tide cycle: Lewes, DE. This would be the 8th-highest water level since records began in 1919, ~1.3' below the record set in the 1/23/16 Nor'easter, and ~0.7' below Hurricane Sandy.

Like I’ll be discussing in a future article, “hurricanes are like bananas, they come in bunches”. Southeast Florida’s bunches came in 1945-1950, and will come again some day.

The future of Atlantic hurricane tracks » Yale Climate Connections A look at what we know and don't yet know about how climate change could affect the paths of these storms — and the all-important question of how often they'll make landfall.

My comprehensive look at how Atlantic hurricane tracks are changing and will change. One takeaway:
No significant changes in tracks have been reliably detected in recent decades, though there appears to have been a significant shift to the south for storms attaining hurricane strength.

Insurers want to protect NCAR: "NCAR has long supplied the foundational capabilities that enable catastrophe modeling and climate-informed pricing. Disruption would heighten uncertainty in risk assessments, and undermine the stability and affordability of insurance coverage for U.S. consumers."

North: The Future of Post-Climate America. Book Talk with Jesse M. Keenan (In Person) - Yale Program on Climate Change Communication Climate change is already influencing how and where people live. Jesse M. Keenan discusses his new book, North: The Future of Post-Climate America (Oxford University Press), which explores how ...

I'm looking forward to joining friends and colleagues at @yale.edu @yaleclimatecomm.bsky.social on Monday to discuss, North: The Future of Post-Climate America (Oxford). yaleconnect.yale.edu/ypccc/rsvp_b...

Wow, thanks, I assumed that the map I got from the EPA was current, but it was indeed from Friday. The Monday purpleair.com map shows the air pollution episode caused by the mobilization of PM2.5 particles from the melting snowpack. Concerning that airnow.gov is not updating the pollution maps.

Wow, thanks, I assumed that the map I got from the EPA was current, but it was indeed from Friday. The Monday purpleair.com map shows the air pollution episode caused by the mobilization of PM2.5 particles from the melting snowpack. Concerning that airnow.gov is not updating the pollution maps.

Significant air pollution episode over Michigan the past 2 days as 50° temps melt a 7-week-old snow pack, mobilizing PM 2.5 particles that had fallen on the snow. Light winds, low mixing, and fresh emissions contributing to the event. AQI largely in the orange "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range.

54.0 days to decision from 21.5 25.8% denial rate from 15.2%

FEMA decision time for disaster declarations has more that doubled as of 2025.

Previously 1 in 6 applications denied, now 1 in 4.

Incredible new interactive dashboard from @andrewrumbach.bsky.social

andrewrumbach.com/disaster-lab

Despite Eastern U.S. cold, January 2026 was one of the world's warmest Januaries on record » Yale Climate Connections Near-record warmth in the Western U.S. gave the contiguous U.S. an above-average temperature for the month.

Between its mild start and its frigid ending, the eastern U.S. is one of the few areas on Earth where temperatures *didn't* end up above average for January 2026. Almost everywhere else, the ever-warming band played on. From @drjeffmasters.bsky.social:

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/desp...

Weak self-induced cooling of tropical cyclones amid fast sea surface warming - Nature Geoscience Tropical cyclones cool the ocean surface less than previously thought, indicating that current projections may underestimate their future intensity and frequency, according to an analysis of global se...

Hurricanes are getting stronger: This study found from 1992-2021, Cat 1+ hurricanes globally intensified by 1.74 m/s (3.9 mph) over the 30-year period, and that a cold bias in IPCC climate models "probably contributes to an underestimate in projections of major hurricane frequency.”

Nice tool! I like how they give a 1-year, 15-year, and 30-year probability of a wildfire burning your property. There's just a 0.28% chance in 1 year for the sample property I show below, but a 7.56% chance over 30 years.

Mitigating the climate crisis by stopping the burning of fossil fuels has a massive co-benefit we should talk about all the time: a >3% of GDP savings through less air pollution.

Very little rain coming in the next 2 weeks. “With less than 4” of rain since November, the South Florida Water Management District said water levels in the Biscayne Aquifer have fallen dramatically. In some places, levels are the lowest in more than a decade”. www.miamiherald.com/news/local/e...

Widening beaches make California 500 acres bigger than it was 40 years ago Southern California's beaches have grown more than 500 acres over the past four decades despite being one of the most heavily urbanized and dammed coastal regions in the world, according to a new stud...

Wow, human made structures and cliff erosion helped Southern California beaches expand by approximately 10% from 1984-2024, “even as dams and urban development were expected to starve coastlines of sediment and accelerate erosion.”

phys.org/news/2026-02...

A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño and La Niña » Yale Climate Connections Developed in response to a warming world, NOAA’s revised scale more precisely identifies which episodes are likely to have the biggest impacts.

I love writing about geeky science that has real-world implications. In this case, a new NOAA index does a more solid job of classifying El Niño and La Niña—and that helps explain some recent puzzling events. @climateconnections.bsky.social

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/02/a-ne...

Wildfire Smoke Linked to 17,000 Strokes Annually in the United States - Eos A study of 25 million Medicare participants adds to a body of evidence suggesting that prolonged exposure to wildfire smoke is more harmful to human health than other forms of air pollution.

🚨 17,000 strokes. That’s the annual toll of wildfire 🔥 smoke in the US according to new data. Smoke isn’t just a "breathing" issue; it’s a heart and brain issue. We need climate action to protect our families from the source. 🛑🔥 #ClimateHealth #WildfireSmoke #ActOnClimate

eos.org/articles/wil...

This was one of my favorite #AGU25 talks this year

The future of NCAR remains highly uncertain » Yale Climate Connections Members of the American Meteorological Society were briefed Wednesday about ongoing developments on the future of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which the White House has said it will b...

The dissolution of NCAR remains a very real possibility, as discussed at a town-hall meeting this week at #AMS2026. @climateconnections.bsky.social

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/the-...

“We think of climate impacts as huge, monstrous things — giant dinosaur weather-beasts rampaging across our cities. But it turns out we should be at least as worried about the plague of small strains spreading through our lives, eating away at systems functionality like a horde of gnawing rodents.”

"Major" flooding predicted for coastal North Carolina and Virginia during the Sunday morning high tide. Duck, NC, is predicted hit 7.2', 3rd-highest water level since 1999:

1. 7.82 ft on 09-18-2003
2. 7.55 ft on 11-22-2006
3. 7.20 ft on 09-06-2019
4. 7.15 ft on 01-03-2022
5. 7.04 ft on 08-21-2025

This week’s Arctic onslaught and how it compares to blasts from the past » Yale Climate Connections Winter weather has to push uphill in our warming climate, but this event could set records for total damage and in some areas for prolonged cold.

This winter blast is far from over. Washington, DC, is on track for its longest stretch below 32F in almost 40 years. Nearly 400,000 U.S. customers are without power. And snow could envelop NC's Outer Banks this weekend. @climateconnections.bsky.social

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/this...

‘Situation is dire’ for Sicily town teetering on cliff edge after landslide 1,500 people evacuated from Niscemi after battering by Cyclone Harry triggers 4km-long chasm in hillside

Damage is estimated at $1.2 billion, joining the U.S. ice storm/arctic onslaught over the past week as the first billion-dollar disasters of 2026. There were 55 billion-dollar weather disasters globally last year.

Serious stuff: “By 2100, global crop yields would be reduced by 11% if emissions rapidly plummet to net zero -- and by 24% if emissions continue to increased unchecked. In the shorter term, by 2050 climate change will decrease global crop yields by 8 percent”, regardless of scenario.

14% of all U.S. government STEM Ph.D.s have left the workforce since Dec. 2024, a huge brain drain. New hires replaced only about 9% of the departures (at 14 of the agencies studied).

Earth was hit by 55 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2025 » Yale Climate Connections The world endured its costliest wildfire on record in 2025, its sixth-deadliest heat wave, and four floods or storms that caused at least 1,000 deaths.

I summarized the biggest weather disasters of 2025 using last week's summaries from Gallagher Re and Aon. The costliest: $65 billion in damage from the L.A. wildfires. The deadliest: 24,000+ killed in the summer heatwave in Europe.

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/eart...

Officially, Flint fell to -24F, just one degree short of their all-time record:

Got down to -24F at my backyard weather station in SE Michigan this morning, my 2nd-coldest lifetime temperature, behind -29 in Feb 2015. Here I am seeing if 70F water will freeze before hitting the ground at -24. Nope. Flint sank to at least -21, close to the all-time -25 record.

Winter 2025-26 (finally) hits the U.S. with a vengeance » Yale Climate Connections The armada of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and bitter cold may get reinforcements next week.

A week-plus in DC below freezing? Perhaps, as a prolonged winter storm moves into the central and eastern U.S. this weekend. Heavy snows will stretch from the Ohio Valley to New England, with dangerous ice from TX to NC.
@climateconnections.bsky.social

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/01/wint...