Joe DeCarolis

Obviously terrible BUT I keep reminding myself that what has been undone can be redone. The science doesn't change, and eventually... EVENTUALLY... we will realign U.S. policy with the science.

FYI , the original source of that figure was a 2016 EIA report with the (wordy) title: "Wind and Solar Data and Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration: Past Performance and Ongoing Enhancements"

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

YouTube video by MIT Energy Initiative Stay humble and prepare for surprises: Lessons for the energy transition with Joseph F. DeCarolis

This animation looks similar to the ones I developed and presented at MIT in 2024 when I was EIA Administrator: www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0fL...

My explanation for natural gas production begins around the 25:50 mark, followed by crude oil, wind, solar, and CO2 emissions.

Yes, the economics are pretty simple: incentivize demand for gasoline and prices will go up. Look no further than EPA's own regulatory impact analysis earlier this year, which cited EIA projections: www.cbsnews.com/news/epa-rul...

Funny story about George Dantzig's formulation of the canonical diet program to test his newly developed simplex algorithm. The lesson? Embed some common sense in the model formulation.

Thanks to @bistline.bsky.social for sharing.

Today we submitted our public comment on critical flaws in EPA's rationale for rescinding its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

This proposed move is a big deal with profound implications for our future. Today's the last day to comment. www.cmu.edu/cit/veg/publ...

Excellent piece by @bencasselman.bsky.social on the BLS data revisions.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, another federal statistical agency, faces similar data challenges. The accuracy vs timeliness tradeoff is universal: data collected at higher frequency is inherently noisier.

And here the timely EIA data (and analysis) on oil trade volumes through the Strait of Hormuz - 20% of global oil consumption:
www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

I was happy to participate in this event and explain how the U.S. Energy Information Administration meets energy data needs in the United States. 🔌💡

DeCarolis named head of Engineering and Public Policy Joseph DeCarolis has been named head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy.

Some personal news: This November, I'll be returning to Carnegie Mellon (@cmu.edu) as head of the Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP).

I'm honored and excited to help lead EPP into its next chapter.

engineering.cmu.edu/news-events/...

Wind is hard to model in capacity expansion models because its performance is highly dependent on its spatiotemporal representation. NEMS, like many other models, has a relatively stylized representation of wind resources.

Over 100 employees leave US EIA, putting crucial energy data at risk, sources say The U.S. government's energy statistics arm is set to lose over 100 employees after the Trump administration's latest round of resignation offers, putting at risk some of the most closely watched energy reports globally, three sources told Reuters.

If you want to lower energy costs for Americans, you must first understand the US energy system. You can't do that without the robust, accurate data the EIA provides.

The Trump Administration's haphazard dismantling of the EIA will hurt our ability to increase access to cheap, reliable energy.

GitHub - EIAgov/dash-benchmark Contribute to EIAgov/dash-benchmark development by creating an account on GitHub.

Last year we also released an open source python dashboard that enables comparisons across AEO editions: github.com/EIAgov/dash-...

(Looks like it hasn't been updated with AEO2025 data yet.)

All credit goes to EIA staff. (I departed EIA on Jan. 20.)

The EIA Retrospective Report, released every other year, calculates statistics across previous AEO editions: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

GitHub - EIAgov/NEMS Contribute to EIAgov/NEMS development by creating an account on GitHub.

That's all for now.

Again, I appreciate the dedication of EIA staff to produce the AEO under challenging circumstances.

And remember EIA's transparency. Don't like a result? Run NEMS with your own assumptions: github.com/EIAgov/NEMS

DOE Statement on EIA Annual Energy Outlook The Department of Energy (DOE) today released the following statement from DOE Spokesperson Andrea Woods on the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2025

If you’re curious about the Trump Administration’s reaction to these independently produced results: www.energy.gov/articles/doe...

That’s a brief overview of some key results. Remember, modeling assumptions were frozen in December 2024. The effects of Trump’s executive orders and tariff policy, among other factors, could have a significant impact on these projections.

EV sales also hit a hard upper limit around 55% of new sales. I suspect this has to do with the relative economics between the different vehicle classes as well as details in the consumer choice model. In future AEO editions, EIA should explore assumptions that could lead to higher EV deployments.

Electric vehicle share of new vehicle sales from EIA's Annual Energy Outloook 2025.

Finally, here’s a look at electric vehicle sales. Excluding several recent transportation-related regulations has a big impact on electric vehicle (EV) deployment.

You can see from the figure above that electrified transport has a significant impact on electricity demand – note the difference between the Reference case and Alternative Transportation case.

Total electricity generation from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

Overall, total electricity generation increases nearly 50% from 2024-2050. This increase is due to the electrification of end-uses, like transportation, as well as increases in existing sources of electricity demand, like data centers.

Natural gas-fired generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

And finally, here’s generation from natural gas, which declines over time in most cases as renewables take up an increasing share of generation.

Nuclear generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

Here’s nuclear generation. Consistent with past AEO editions, nuclear energy remains relatively flat but with some variation. For example, the Low Oil and Gas Supply case leads to more expensive gas, which incentivizes new nuclear capacity in later years.

Coal-fired electricity generation projections from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

Here’s coal. You can see the effect of the EPA 111d regulations on coal generation – it forces nearly full coal retirement by 2040. Note: “Alternative Electricity” removes those new regulations.

Renewables (wind + solar) generation from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

Let’s step through the full set of projections for each major source of electricity generation.

Here’s renewables. (Unfortunately, wind and solar are lumped together in the tables.) Note the marked increases in renewable generation and slowdown in later years when the IRA tax credits expire.

Electricity generation by source from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025

Here’s a view into the electric sector, with the AEO2023 Reference case, current Reference case, and Alternative Electricity case. Note the consistently high renewables generation, between 60-70% across these three cases.

So as renewable penetration increases and end uses are electrified, all else equal, it decreases the need for thermal-based primary energy sources.

EIA changed its primary energy accounting for noncombustible renewables: www.eia.gov/totalenergy/...

In AEO2025, 1 unit of solar or wind electricity = 1 unit of primary energy. So 1 unit of solar or wind displacing 1 unit of fossil electricity reduces fossil primary energy by 2-3 units (2nd Law).

Total primary energy from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2025.

Here's U.S. primary energy consumption. You can see substantial reductions from AEO2023 and through 2040. What’s going on?

Renewables, mostly solar and wind, are an increasing share of the electricity mix. End-use electrification is also increasing. What does that have to do with primary energy?

The 2050 Reference case emissions are 17% lower in AEO2025 than AEO2023. It’s largely due to the IRA, EPA regulations, and continued cost declines in renewables and batteries. Emissions tend to flat-line around 2040 as IRA credits expire and growing energy demands exert influence.