Geoff Robinson

The eternal dilemma of conservatism-being modern without being modernist #geoffreads

An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:

Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats

Ditto for the Trump-ist American right

Most prominent mainstream media libs—in my experience—are from backgrounds that have precluded them from interaction with evangelicals in any meaningful way, which means that the people who look to them for information and analysis are at a real disadvantage on this topic

Identity politics is everywhere

But I don't think there is consensus on what "the rule of law" means. For the right it often means "we decide the rules, you are bound to follow them" whereas liberals often include list of substantive values.

Richard Posner in 2009 on the new conservatism-seems prophetic www.becker-posner-blog.com/2009/05/is-t...

Two books worth a re-read now

Some radical right ideas strike a popular chord-low taxes/no wokery/less foreigners etc but Trumpist dream of time-travelling to an imagined 50s economy seems intellectuals' fantasy up there with great replacement/western civ/Anglosphere/200% pro-Israelism etc little appeal to real voters?

We've been talking an awful lot about how the Trump tariffs will hit the big players: the UK, China, Canada, France, Germany etc
But it's time to talk about the ones who DON'T have loud voices. Because some of the poorest countries in the world are going to be crippled by what happened last night

I have tariffed
the penguins
that are on
Heard Island

and which
you were probably
assuming
did not export goods

forgive me
they were taking advantage of us
so cunning
and so cold

Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2

Yale Budget Lab analysis of tariffs: $3,800 hit to average household. Loss of 4% of after-tax income to poorest households; 1.5% to richest.

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/whe...

Some of these tariff rates are absolutely brutal - 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia, 37% for Bangladesh, 29% for Pakistan. The idea any of these countries have victimised the US seems somewhat far fetched.

I think punditry would be a lot healthier if people made the case for their policies and position on the merits first rather than framing everything they advocate for as a good electoral strategy. 90% of the time, it's what they support on the merits, so just make that case.

Formal structures are important & some might be inherently dysfunctional but politicians badly underestimate importance of norms & conventions - Burkean point for the day?

The LibDems and Greens are so middle class-coded that a majority of the disabled people who are leaving Labour after it betrayed them are heading to Reform instead, whose policies would hurt them a lot more still.

Fine tuning lecture on violence & social movements-Sorel gets a mention & also my hypothesis that if Fanon had lived to 90s he might have been a neoliberal-building on his suspicion of post-Independence elites

Make me think of experience of being in post-socialist cities where there was similar post-war building

Out of ACTU’s seven Queensland target seats, three are held by an incumbent Greens MP and one is a Labor vs Greens contest.

defeated JS Mill & one of the 1st Tory businessmen-anticipated many future trends

Almost 3 years after joy erupted over NUPES's surprise first-place finish, the French left is again as weak and divided as it was before. In the first round of a presidential election, its candidates would pool just 27-28% if Attal or Philippe run for the centre right, while the far right takes ≈40%

so millions of Americans have suddenly stopped receiving social security bc $$ going to someone else but none of them have noticed this?

seems to be pattern that some major party identifiers default to their traditional allegiance in polls but then vote Independent on election day? Haven't polls in Melbourne understated Bandt's support & in UK Corbyn trailed in polls but won easily as an Indie?

also small but non-zero chance American politics is transformed & elections cease to be competitive?

Suspect that’s the point?

Cover of the book HARD CORE by Linda Williams

Just learned professor Linda Williams has died after a long illness. My deep condolences to her family, friends, and colleagues.

Her work in #PornStudies including the book Hard Core: Power, Pleasure, and the “Frenzy of the Visible” were monumental. RIP

dukeupress.wordpress.com/2025/03/13/f...

This really puts into sharp focus the revolutionary aspect of Trump II, both domestically and internationally, and it's fascinating how quickly it has become orthodoxy among GOP elected leaders.

🧵

True at the same time: the attack on Columbia is an escalation toward full-blown Orbán- Erdogan autocracy and destruction of the autonomy of associations & civil society, and the mechanism of micromanaging universities through federal funding has been building for a long time across administrations.

Diary I decided to keep a record of my thoughts as events transpire, a diary.

From Adam Przeworski's Diary:

"I grew up under a dictatorship but could never imagine I would die under one. Today I entertain this possibility."

(Just in case it's not obvious: this is one of the most sober political scientists writing today, someone with a minimalist definition of democracy).

Participant observation!