Gavin Kelly

Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade Bigger than expected reduction in OBR forecast deals blow to chancellor ahead of Budget

Don’t think a 0.3% downgrade is especially surprising (regardless of analysts’ expectations). As brutal as the Budget will be for HMT, I expect they’d prefer this to 3 years of consecutive small downgrades.

on.ft.com/3WWvlq6 Reeves faces £20bn hit to UK public finances from productivity downgrade

So sorry Sunder - shocking - please take care of yourself.

Utterly brutal but completely necessary. Should never have been allowed to go on this long. Hope the fans now go in numbers to support & spend.

‘I dream the curriculum every night’: Becky Francis profile Becky Francis reflects on control, compromise, and finding the balance between ‘firebrand’ and 'technocrat'

Delighted to see NELI, the Nuffield Early Language Intervention programme, described as an ‘education silver bullet’ by @beckyfrancis.bsky.social in @schoolsweek.bsky.social. NELI is a programme for reception pupils in England who need extra support with speech & language development. bit.ly/47CEtq3

Yikes.

Crucial scene-setting by @theifs.bsky.social in its Green Budget which @nuffieldfoundation.org is pleased to support.

Hard to argue with the central conclusion: serious tax reform is long overdue. Whether its property, capital gains, carbon, motoring or self-employment - the tax system is not fit for purpose. Change will take time & needs to be carefully crafted. This Budget needs to be reforming + revenue-raising

Here is the cut out & keep scorecard of revenue raised in 2029/30 from different tax options:

Options for tax increases | Institute for Fiscal Studies If the Chancellor hopes to raise large sums from tax increases at the Budget, she should consider reforms that would make any increases less damaging.

All Budgets are billed as important but this one is set to be especially challenging.

Pleased @nuffieldfoundation.org supports @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget which illuminates the key choices & trade-offs.

Here's the chapter on options for tax increases.

ifs.org.uk/publications...

Being clear about what is happening to graduates in the jobs market is important in its own right - but also because simplistic analysis just feeds the beast of suspect narrative (it's all AI etc)

More clear thinking from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

Well worth reading this thoughtful interview on race, identity and much else with the optimistic realist @sundersays.bsky.social

I expect we'll be seeing a lot more of this.

Loved that book when I read as a post-grad. Curious to know what you make of it today....

Jews and Muslims in North Manchester: A personal story ‘We thought we were the luckiest people in the world to be born in Manchester’

Some of the most thoughtful social commentary atm is coming via @manchestermill.bsky.social

manchestermill.co.uk/jews-and-mus...

Ta-Nehisi Coates on Bridging Gaps vs. Drawing Lines

When should (& shouldn’t) political differences be bridged?

A rich and timely conversation between Ta-Nehisi Coates & @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social

open.spotify.com/episode/4jQE...

Reading Room | Bishopsgate Institute The Reading Room is separate to the Researchers’ Service, so if you’d like to look at our special collections and archives, you’ll need this instead https:

Somewhere free, quiet, and right next to Liverpool Street? 👀

Whether you’ve got a deadline looming, are polishing off a chapter on your lunch break, or hunting for a calm spot to do some work, our new Reading Room is open to you.

👋 https://www.bishopsgate.org.uk/whats-on/activity/reading-room/

An ARIA for social issues? The case for exploratory social science

Thoughtful provocation from the always interesting Geoff Mulgan on the urgent need for future-facing exploratory social science.

geoffmulgan.substack.com/p/an-aria-fo...

Pleased that @nuffieldfoundation.org support @fullfact.org & their important work.

For instance, c. 1 in 3 young people who are NEET are not on UC and are largely invisible to the state. Vital that an ambitious ‘guarantee’ finds a way of tracking them & providing them with new opportunities.

Let’s not forget the young people without GCSEs We should realise that training alongside decent work is a better next step for some 16-year-olds

Good to see the commitment to a job guarantee for young people long-term excluded from work or learning. Vital step. Lots of other elements needed to get this right. My recent thoughts.

on.ft.com/3ILpb8T Let’s not forget the young people without GCSEs

It’s time to think about the connection between the social & economic, not as unilateral, but as a two-way relationship.
 
This was the theme of our recent event, where we asked a room of experts, ’How can the strength of our social foundations make, or break, our economic fortunes?’
 
Link below👇

Listening to @gavin-kelly.bsky.social talking about @nuffieldfoundation.org new strategy - using the power of evidence to change lives.

Pleased to hear the two challenges of:
- young people not earning or learning and
- working age ill health

are both squarely in his sights. ☺️

Big congratulations to Kim Darroch on his appointment as new Chair of
@orwellprize.bsky.social.

Kim takes over from Ken Macdonald who has been a superb Chair over the last decade.

www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-f...

‘My name is Lewis Capaldi and I’m back’.

Really pleased to see this - congratulations to the excellent @louisemarston.bsky.social

I regularly come back to this graph when talking to people about how we’re in a really different world now.

And important to note that these are for EHCP only. There will be many more young people with SEND for these conditions, but no EHCP

The underlying financial position.

Essential @nuffieldfoundation.org funded note by @theifs.bsky.social on England's SEND system - highly topical this autumn. Here's the growth in the number of EHCPs over the last decade+.

ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

Cost of place in children’s care homes in England hits almost £320,000 a year Private firms’ profits soar, watchdog says, as prices nearly double in five years

Care of highly vulnerable children in England:

‘The lack of suitable residential care places meant four out of five councils placed children with complex needs in illegal care facilities, the NAO said.’

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...