Jörg Broschek 🇨🇦

Canada Is Already at War with the US—We Just Don’t Know It Yet | The Walrus Conflicts don’t always start with an invasion

Longue durée analysis is so important.

What the author describes here are (potentially) self-reinforcing feedback effects. The direction of change points to some form of vassal state pathway. Only one, but unfortunately not an entirely unrealistic scenario.

thewalrus.ca/canada-is-al...

For clarification: Cooperative federalism in rhetoric (which we hear a lot) does not mean cooperative federalism in practice, which would require some form of institutionalization and intergovernmental capacity-building.

Screenshot News Release Ontario Government March 4, 2026: Ontario Secures Groundbreaking National Energy Corridor Agreement

I want to be hopeful, but this should be part and parcel of a coherent, encompassing industrial strategy, developed within an institutional framework of cooperative federalism.

Unfortunately, we lack both. A problem for a project of this scope to materialize.

news.ontario.ca/en/release/1...

Still puzzling if/when/to what extent 🇨🇦 can be added to this list or not ("support with regret (?)").

The supposed explosion of the federal public service looks less explosive if you put it in per capita numbers and draw a line graph back to the mid-80s.

Opinion: In the age of AI, the fog of war thickens Amid the global seduction of using AI in all aspects of work, the military is now leaning on AI tools to carry out the ugly business of war

My latest op-ed. The fog of war in the age of AI will become thicker. Science fiction has become realist and under the Trumps administration, any potential guardrails are being degraded at warp speed 🧵https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-the-age-of-ai-the-fog-of-war-thickens/

MAGA embrace: Europe’s nationalists head to Washington Right-wing populists from across Europe are converging on the U.S. capital, where Speaker Mike Johnson is headlining a sovereignty conference.

Hey look, the European#farright is having another great day out: 'a chance to bask in the success of a kindred party at the peak of its power '

During his first year, he and his parents lived in the house next to ours. (We don't know if he was also born in the house or in hospital). When he was one, they moved into a house one block away, according to the street directory.

How Canada would survive without a U.S. trade deal If the trade agreement is cancelled, Canada will survive, but it will be costly. And even then, the U.S. will very likely remain our largest trading partner.

This oped is asking the right question, and provides a solid analysis. I’d add that the picture it paints of the consequences of continued uncertainty in Canada-US trade relations will hold even if the USMCA is renegotiated. Because the source of that uncertainty is structural.

After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act.

This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start.

Some quick thoughts:

“The issue at the heart of this is whether power is allowed to prevail over the law.”

Scholz’s famous 2022 Zeitenwende speech, endorsed also by Merz. A historical footnote.

Conceptualizing and Measuring Geopolitical Alignments A vast literature examines how geopolitical alignments influence militarized conflict, trade, investment, aid, and other outcomes in international relations. Yet, considerable ambiguity remains regard...

Conceptualizing and Measuring Geopolitical Alignments - www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

This is a really helpful @jeffcolgan.bsky.social breakdown of the oil connection to interventions that helps go beyond simplistic "blood for oil" narratives. @goodauth.bsky.social th

Is oil behind the U.S. attack on Iran? Is oil behind the U.S. attack on Iran? To understand the Trump administration’s military targets, take a closer look at the petrostate pattern.

On Iran, see the larger context.

Five of the seven countries that the Trump admin has militarily attacked since Jan. 2025 are significant oil producers, even though petrostates are rare.

It's not a coincidence. I explain why @goodauth.bsky.social

goodauthority.org/news/is-oil-...

University of Waterloo students vote in favour of strike over OSAP funding changes On Wednesday, participating students will walk out of their classes at 11 a.m. and join a protest rally for the remainder of the day in the Arts Quad.

When Bavaria introduced “tuition fees” (€400 per term) in 2007, students went “on strike”. Obviously, this did not impress the government.

Nevertheless, the fees were abolished in 2013 because of backlash from parents: the dentists, lawyers and engineers.

www.therecord.com/news/waterlo...

A few years ago (2022) I presented a paper where I developed 3 mechanisms of politicization of the European Union.

one of them is the usual bottom-up process: people get mobilized by what the EU does. I called it "reactive politicization". Countless examples of it in the literature.

1/9

Opinion: Donald Trump isn’t the president of peace – he’s the most dangerous man on the planet Hypocritical U.S. President craves both the accolades of bringing peace and the exercise of military might

Debra Thompson:

"In Mr. Trump’s mind, of course, there is no hypocrisy; there is only the belief that world peace can be won solely through global concession to American hegemony"

www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...

"Obviously, the Gulf states play an important role for Trump, his cliques and his politics. Those of the 'old West' (Europe, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan) need to decide if they want to partake in the new MAGA-Club as vassals, or if they have an alternative."

Screenshot add announcing trade diversification to protect Ontario

Screenshot cover Ontario's Building Fortress Am-Can plan

Ontario provincial government's attempt to square the trade policy circle.

(S+) Kanada: Separatisten in Alberta - diese Trump-Fans wollen raus aus Kanada Separatisten wollen die reiche Ölprovinz Alberta von Kanada abspalten und bekommen Zuspruch von der US-Regierung. Wer sind die Abtrünnigen – und können sie das Land zerlegen?

If you don’t think that separatism is not causing Alberta reputational and investment damage, think again.

Germany’s leading magazine highlights the instability.

”Separatisten in Alberta - diese Trump-Fans wollen raus aus Kanada - DER SPIEGEL”

www.spiegel.de/ausland/kana...

#ableg

The lack of clarity - and resulting confusion - is a general pattern. Similar: The PM has never explained what exactly he means by "nation-building" or "cooperative federalism", but frequently and deliberately uses these terms - which can mean a lot of different things in Canadian federalism.

Oh we will, can't wait to get out for a day!

Same here. Our default used to be Lake Huron, and it took some time before we realized how beautiful Lake Erie is. And, yes, we love our rivers, too. Still need to explore more of the Nith though.

Paris is a gem! I always take on day off during March break and we make a short family road trip. This was last year: we followed the Grand River right to Lake Erie, close to Port Maitland. Paris was our first stop (usually we only see the hockey rink in Brant :) )

Iconic train bridge crossing the Grand River in Paris, ON, with two trains.

I love this view. A little closer, from last March, with two trains crossing, but without the dam.

Merz in China: German chancellor, Xi seek more cooperation Friedrich Merz said he saw a "great opportunity" for the industrial exporters, while Xi Jinping called for "enhanced strategic cooperation." China has been courting Western leaders amid Trump's trade ...

February: Merz in China, Carney in India.

January: Merz in India, Carney in China.

The new politics of re-risking unfold at a breathtaking pace.

www.dw.com/en/merz-in-c...

Building Fortress Am-Can: Ontario’s Am-Can growth plan Ontario’s Am-Can Growth Plan envisions a new American and Canadian century as we work together to build Fortress Am-Can, a renewed strategic alliance between the U.S. and Canada that’s a beacon of sta...

The premier's posturing strikes me as rather distractive. It would be more interesting to hear what his long-term plan is - is it still Fortress Am-Can (January 2025), and if so, based on what premise?

www.ontario.ca/page/buildin...

Great essay, worth reading.

"Instead, she uses political speak to say she supports a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada. What does that even mean?"

Exactly. Define sovereignty, Premier Smith.

Mark Carney and the failure of co-operative federalism in Canada Carney promises co-operative federalism, but without institutional reform, Canada risks falling back into competitive provincial politics.

PM Carney on Nov 27: “This is Canada working, this is co-operative federalism”. Only, it isn't.

policyoptions.irpp.org/2026/02/comp...

Ad hoc deal-making ≠ co-operative federalism.

Danielle Smith won’t change. But if we had co-operative federalism, Ottawa would not also alienate allies like David Eby.

There is always a chance to put institutional reform on the table – to establish co-operative federalism.