Paul Maidowski

🔥HOT OFF THE PRESS: Why the energy transition is disruptive, non-linear, hard to predict and often faster than expected.

Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways | Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of scenarios that describe potential future developments in society, economics, and demographics until the end of the 21st century. This Explorer pre...

For a decade, the Shared Socioeconomics Pathways #SSP are used for scenario research related to climate change mitigation.

Now, GDP & population projections were updated by @iiasa.ac.at & the team at the #OECD, and the #ScenarioServices team set up a new interactive app to explore the scenarios!

One of most mind-boggling things about climate change is how much faster it is than planet can accommodate. It takes ~1,000 years for deep water to mix with surface (as Scott Denning puts it "The deep water does not know we are here yet!"), and some Earth processes that remove CO2 take 100,000 years

How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded? Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...

New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.

diese NGO verteilt Solarmodule und Batterien in der Ukraine, damit Krankenhäuser und Menschen trotz des Krieges weiter Strom haben. Gute Sache, die man hier unterstützen kann:
ukraine2power.org/en/#link-sol...

Ancient pine trees growing in eastern Spain have quietly recorded more than five centuries of Mediterranean weather. Analysis of tree rings clearly shows that todays storms and droughts are becoming more intense and more frequent than almost anything the region has experienced since the early 1500s.

If you think gas power is cheap, meet Keadby 2, the last CCGT gas plant built in Great Britain

It opened in 2023, after 5yrs of development, at a cost of £350m

Owner SSE says it would now cost 3.5x to build the same plant (~£1.2bn)
1/6

Considering the significant tone shift of Renew, the socialists, and the EPP, it seems that Europe has entered a new political equilibrium that will lead to a more forceful response against the United States

Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by a record-high 3.7 ppm in 2024, mainly due to the 2023/2024 El Nino conditions weakening the land sink.

The 2025 projection is for a rise of 2.3 ppm, close to the decadal mean of 2.6 ppm, suggesting the land sink has returned to its pre-El Nino level.

12/

📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢

Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.

The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

1/

8 storey half timbered building, first floor stone.

Controversial! I've always argued that 5-story wooden buildings weren't anything special 100 yrs ago. In Germany, we've had to fight to make it happen again, so it leads to dispute.
...A few examples. Starting with 'Alter Bau'. Yes, it's just called 'Old Building'.
www.geislingen.de/de/gaeste/ku...

Bar graph showing global ocean heat content change in the upper 2000 m from the late 1950s through 2025. There is a long-term warming in the time series, which is using IAP/CAS data.

2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹

"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global
ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."

+ #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003...
+ Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn

Politik und Zeitdruck: Warum es neue Debattenformen braucht Beschleunigung macht Politik kurzatmig, langfristige Entscheidungen fallen schwerer. Doch gegen den rasenden Stillstand könnte sie wieder handlungsfähig werden.

Wochenendhörempfehlung:

Starkes DLF-feature zur Politik und Zeit: wie geht die Gesellschaft mit der Hyperbeschleunigung durch den Kapitalismus um?

Wie werden pol. Entscheidungen unter Zeitdruck getroffen?

Und: ändert sich im #Kollaps die Zeitlichkeit von Politik fundamental?

Having majored in IR, it’s fascinating to watch, to put it positively 😬

The effect isn’t obvious to me. It could be beneficial for negotiations if detractors are not part of the process

5/This is part of what @segoddard.bsky.social and I have called a neo-royalist order. Elite cliques use economic and material interdependencies to bolster their power. Think elite interests (Trump and his inner circle) not national interests.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Nullschool weather app for mobile phones...!

„especially the rise of industry-scale storage units looks set to “fundamentally transform the functioning of Germany’s electricity system.” 👆

an outcrop of Miami oolite under an overpass in Brickell

The Windley Key Fossil Reef, an old limestone quarry that provides a cross-section of a coral reef from 120,000 years ago

Made a pilgrimage to 2 ghosts of sea level past & future in Florida, from last time global temp was similar to today 120,000 years ago: an outcrop of oolite in Miami from when it was a sandy shoal under the waves, and in Windley Key a fossil coral reef that now ominously sits 20 feet above sea level

For nonlawyers, it’s worth noting that statements like this have—as a formal matter—important legal effects as a matter of international law. If such statements are *not* made, and in volume, future arguments that Trump’s invasion sets a legal precedent will stand on much firmer legal ground.

"If we are going to go all in on a fossil fuel future in the U.S., it probably would be good to check if we have the fossil fuels to do that." Geology strikes back

Overlooked hydrogen emissions are heating Earth and supercharging methane, research finds Rising global emissions of hydrogen over the past three decades have added to the planet's warming temperatures and amplified the impact of methane, one of the most potent greenhouse gases, according ...

Hydrogen does not directly warm the climate, but interacts with OH to extend the life of CH4.

"More hydrogen means fewer detergents [OH] in the atmosphere, causing methane to persist longer &, therefore, warm the climate longer"

phys.org/news/2025-12...

Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

✅ May 2025: Landmark adoption of the #PandemicAgreement.

Countries adopted the first Pandemic Agreement at the 78th World Health Assembly. The agreement fosters international collaboration and commits to ensuring more equitable access to vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics.

Im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes UBA haben haben wir mit GWS und E3-Modelling internationale Wechselwirkungen zwischen EU-ETS und einem CO2-Grenzausgleichssystem (CBAM) analysiert (inkl. Paper zu CO2 Preisen in IAMs). Die Ergebnisse sind jetzt öffentlich. www.gws-os.com/de/die-gws/n...

Bild eines mit Pflanzen zugewucherten Fahrrads. Text: Melde Schrotträder mit "Ordnungsamt Online". #mittemachtsauber. Unten rechts befindet sich das Logo des BA Mitte-Bären mit einem Besen in der Hand.

Dein Klick zählt: Schrottfahrräder über Ordnungsamt Online melden! 🚲📲 Über 700 Räder wurden in Mitte schon entfernt – gemeinsam schaffen wir Platz, mehr Sicherheit und barrierefreie Wege. Entdeckt ihr ein Schrottrad? Einfach über melden und mithelfen!➡️ sohub.io/3j1x

Closing out my year with a journal editor shocker 🧵

Checking new manuscripts today I reviewed a paper attributing 2 papers to me I did not write. A daft thing for an author to do of course. But intrigued I web searched up one of the titles and that's when it got real weird...

Hydrogen emissions are ‘supercharging’ the warming impact of methane - Carbon Brief The warming impact of hydrogen has been “overlooked” in projections of climate change, authors of the latest “global hydrogen budget” say.

The Global Carbon Project has just published the most comprehensive Global Hydrogen Budget to date.

H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2.

Carbon Brief:
www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi...

Research paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Fig. 5

Hansen predicts global temperature will reach a record +1.7°C in 2027. In addition to Earth’s heating rate of 0.2°C per decade, this implies an acceleration by 0.1°C per decade since 2016, likely from (“one-time only”) aerosol effects, ie shift to cleaner and less fuels. mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...

Science’s 2025 Breakthrough of the Year: The unstoppable rise of renewable energy Clean energy infrastructure is being deployed with unmatched scale and speed—and China is leading the way

Die erneuerbaren Energien sind der Durchbruch des Jahres laut Science Magazine:

Wind und Solar wachsen in noch nie erreichtem Tempo. 2025 war das erste Jahr, in dem weltweit mehr Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien als aus Kohle erzeugt wurde.

🚨 Our new paper is out! First study focusing on African sea level rise from 1993 to present 🌊🌍

Sea levels accelerated 4.5× since the 1990s, from 0.96 to 4.34 mm/yr.

2023 broke records across 40% of African waters.

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📖 doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02965-z