Brian Schaffner

the outcome of the 2024 election increased confidence in U.S. elections among Trump voters, but they still lagged behind Harris voters...newest @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/many-tr...

in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post with Caroline Soler, we use vote validated CES data to show that nonvoters preferred Trump over Harris for president but Dems over Reps in down ballot races goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...

after 15 months, today is Caroline Soler's last day as the CES research associate. she has been a tremendous asset to the study and is going to be missed in so many ways. but she's on to bigger and better things with the Election Analytics team for the @nytimes.com!

🚨🚨🚨 The Cooperative Election Study's 2024 vote validation data is now available!
Microdata: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

Or easy interactive analysis of the data on...
vote choice: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
demographics of voters: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/votercomp/

enic wants to cash out sooner rather than later?

fuck yeah, it's christmas day

the 2024 election was also a watershed moment among non-voters who, for the first time since we've been collecting data preferred the republican nominee over the democrat. this means increasing turnout would likely have made Trump's victory bigger.

it is especially striking to see how non-religious the Democratic Party has become over the past two decades

the trends when it comes to religion are especially notable. non-evangelical vote preferences have remained stable over time, but democrats continue to lose vote share among evangelicals, especially black and hispanic evangelicals

we see significant shifts away from the democrats among both black and hispanic voters

for black voters, these shifts came particularly among born again christians and men

among Hispanic voters, the rightward shift was mostly isolated to those living in urban areas

we have also released a report on the 2024 election that CES RA Caroline Soler took the lead on and did an amazing job with.

an overview of the report can be found on the CES blog here: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

the full report is here: tinyurl.com/ces24report

some highlights...

🚨🚨🚨 The Cooperative Election Study's 2024 vote validation data is now available!
Microdata: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

Or easy interactive analysis of the data on...
vote choice: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
demographics of voters: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/votercomp/

in the newest post on the CES blog, Caroline Soler digs in to the question of what is the best approach for identifying Evangelicals in surveys sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

still time to sign up for a 2025 CES module if you're interested!

we have just released the call for those interested in purchasing a module for the 2025 CES see here: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

and if you haven't done so already, make sure to register ASAP for the 2025 CES conference (being held 6/1 - 6/3 at Solitude Mountain Resort): cesconference.byu.edu

What your government can do for you: Exploring Americans’ perceptions of government… by Lucy Morisse-Corsetti

Lucy Morisse-Corsetti asked Americans what they think their government owes them...hint: it's quite a lot. Check out her new post on the @TuftsUniversity Public Opinion Lab blog! tufts-pol.medium.com/what-your-go...

in 2008, Conservative Jews voted similarly to Reform/Reconstructionist Jews but by 2024 there was more than a 20-point gap between those two groups

The word 'civility' has sometimes meant politeness and sometimes meant equality and political freedom.

With citations to Machiavelli, Wycliffe, Shakespeare, and others: peterlevine.ws?p=34156

It’s not just NIMBYism: How partisanship shapes support for affordable housing by Jackson Wetherill

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Jackson Wetherill explores the intersection of NIMBYism and partisanship when it comes to attitudes towards affordable housing tufts-pol.medium.com/its-not-just...

Panel!

this post uses newly released data from the 2020-2022-2024 CES panel survey, which includes interviews with ~6k Americans we interviewed (and re-interviewed) over the past three election cycles. download it and dig in! dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Democrats’ losses among Hispanic voters may be larger than they look. Conservative Hispanic Americans are ditching their Hispanic identity, surveys show.

it's not just that Hispanic voters shifted Republican since 2020, it's also the case that some of them no longer even identify as Hispanic! new @goodauth.bsky.social post from me and Caroline Soler
goodauthority.org/news/democra...

Republicans think eggs will be cheaper under Trump, Democrats disagree by Caroline Soler

in a new Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Caroline Soler analyzes data from April asking people how much eggs cost now and how much they will cost in the future. big partisan gaps in perceptions of current prices, even bigger for expectations of future prices
tufts-pol.medium.com/republicans-...

it's been 10 years since the last @pewresearch.org Religious Landscape Study, but the release of a new study gave Caroline Soler a chance to see how the CES stacked up against this benchmark. overall, the surveys produce very similar portraits of religion in America!
sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...

another Cooperative Election Study conference in the books! new mountain resort, same great vibes! we had a special time honoring Steve Ansolabehere who is stepping down from his leadership role, 20 years after founding this incredible innovative project that has done so much for the discipline.

Egan: "the CES is currently political scientists’ most comprehensive source of large, representative samples of sexual and gender minorities in the United States."

he humbly fails to note that this is due to his encouragement that we include key items
bit.ly/43Zn7Ss

thanks to @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social, the Cooperative Election Study common content cumulative data file has been updated with all 701,955 respondents we've interviewed since 2006 dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Trump is supported by men who sell their social status short — As well as those who oversell by Lucy Belknap (class of 2025)

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab post, Lucy Belknap explores how people's perceptions of their social status often differs from their actual status, and how that disconnect influences support for Trump tufts-pol.medium.com/trump-is-sup...

you are my favorite Spurs beat reporter and have been for years and I really appreciated the way you addressed this on the pod. kudos!

(the follow-up from the two Toms was a bit cringey though...probably should've just moved on after your mea culpa)

Power to the people? How Dobbs failed to deliver on democratic representation.
(@bfschaffner.bsky.social and Caroline Soler)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250516-top...