Aaron Gullickson

I know statistics are poorly understood and are misused. But facts matter

Between the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 Census *every* ethnic group in the UK has become *less* geographically segregated and *all* groups, majority and minorities, are more likely to interact with people not like them

At Site of Oklahoma City Bombing, Bipartisan Mayors Sign Declaration Against Political Violence “Oklahoma City Declaration” is signed by dozens of mayors at site of deadliest domestic terror attack in U.S. history, reaffirms commitment to American values of pluralism, compromise, truth and civil...

The Oklahoma City Declaration, a defense of a pluralistic society.

Signed by over 40 Republican, Democratic, and Independent mayors. Led by OKC Mayor David Holt, a Republican in a red state.

www.usmayors.org/2025/09/26/a...

Feeling mixed up on this unusual day. Normally, I am all in for #RCTID, but also My Oh My, My City, My Life. Go Mariners!

"Among articles stating that data was available upon request, only 17% shared data upon request." (Or: you keep saying these words. I do not think they mean what you think they mean)

Don't worry about PDX guys, we got this.

What kind of bizarro kaleidoscope of meaning does one have to be looking through to not be able to see a shade of difference on the political spectrum for anyone right of AOC?

The right is better at cancel culture than the left, which should not be surprising. Its an authoritarian tool that is much more their natural environment, which is another way to say I remember the 1980s.

"Formal demography" is a subfield of demography that is by definition quantitative and demographers certainly lean quant pretty heavily, but lots of examples of qualitative demographic research out there. Jennifer Johnson-Hanks's work is good recent example.

This reminds me of an incident during the Great Satanic Panic. Indulge me in a thread, if you will. 🧵

The phone rang. Landline back in those days, early 90s. The caller identifies herself as a reporter with a local TV station. Someone found a goat's head in a dumpster, therefore SATANISTS...

I used to roll my eyes at the idea of cultural appropriation, but then Kash Patel said "I will see you in Valhalla, brother" and now I understand

All the academics on here getting riled up at a milquetoast Ezra Klein op-ed is reminding me of the good old days when we used to all get collectively upset at a David Brooks piece. Bring those times back.

This sucks. Its become apparent to me that university IT is no longer there to help us, but rather to police us.

About as seriously as I think you read any more of that article than the headline.

I am going to go out on a limb and say he would think that the person who made such a list shouldn't be murdered.

Opinion | Charlie Kirk Was Practicing Politics the Right Way

Charlie Kirk Was Practicing Politics the Right Way
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/o...

There's no hatred like hating your neighbor, and while some people might not want to hear it, an America in which neighbors feel it's ok to do violence to one another based on enmity is in fact worse than what we're living in right now. It's worse, full stop.

What students think working with data looks like. #EconSky

There is no right answer to what constitutes a "generation" but there are definitely wrong ones!

As some of you guessed, the two models are statistically indistinguishable. The answer is Model 1, but there was no way to tell from the data. I was very surprised when I first saw this. Here we show that this confounding of heterogeneity and reinforcement is general: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

I have heard this claim a couple of places now and it is idiotic. Do you really think Iran was somehow unaware of the value of nuclear deterrence until this attack? Somehow, Iran missed a fact that has been known since the beginning of the Cold War? They were just enriching uranium for kicks?

❤️ @migration.ubc.ca for featuring my research! My project on immigrants' relationship formation is driven by my belief that calling Canada home isn’t just about work, but also about love & connection. Supporting immigrants in building meaningful relationships fosters well-being, belonging & thriving

Check all your group chats for bombing plans

Nice! I did not know it had built in bootstrapping functionality.

bootstap_me_inequality.R GitHub Gist: instantly share code, notes, and snippets.

Ok, here is a simple repex of how you could go about bootstrapping the ME inequality measure.

gist.github.com/AaronGullick...

If you need to bootstrap, I would still use avg_comparisons() to get your ME inequality estimate, but just set vcov = FALSE so it runs faster and you don't need the SE. Then just for loop through B times, resample data with replacement, and combine estimates from which you can draw 95% CI and SE.

Thanks, this is a really interesting article. I just skimmed it but I did not see a suggestion that the delta method wouldn't work well, except for maybe taking a bit longer with many categories. Have you tried marginaleffects::avg_comparisons and found it doesn't work well?

Not sure I follow. Do you mean a literal bootstrap approach? If so, you don't need the computed SEs. If not, are the values from a model? I have found marginaleffects can handle many such cases w the right model setup.

Democrats’ losses among Hispanic voters may be larger than they look. Conservative Hispanic Americans are ditching their Hispanic identity, surveys show.

it's not just that Hispanic voters shifted Republican since 2020, it's also the case that some of them no longer even identify as Hispanic! new @goodauth.bsky.social post from me and Caroline Soler
goodauthority.org/news/democra...