Benn Steil

Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. As I show in my latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding, U.S. steel is a case in point . . .

"Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs"
www.cfr.org/blog/steel-p...

A Better Tool to Counter China’s Unfair Trade Practices End the tax advantage for Chinese investors in U.S. markets.

In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I propose a far more effective way to counter China’s unfair trade practices than tariffs—that is, by targeting the US capital account surplus with China, rather than the mirror-image current account deficit. Here's how...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

Trade, Tariffs and Trumponomics

For more timely analysis on trade, tariffs, and Trumponomics, see our new hub, with data, videos, and explainers from @cfr.org experts like @bennsteil.bsky.social @edwardalden.bsky.social and @inumanak.bsky.social 📊🔍🧵(6/6) www.cfr.org/trade-tariff...

The Growth Hit From Trump’s Tariffs Trump’s tariffs will hit U.S. growth.  We estimate the impact over time.

Trump's tariff pledges, if carried out, could knock over a trillion dollars off cumulative U.S. GDP by the end of 2028.

My new @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .

cfr.org/blog/growth-...

The @CFR.org Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated. With China, by our algorithm, having shifted from a loosening to a neutral stance, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rises slightly from -8.54/10 to -8.31/10.

cfr.org/global/globa...

Where Will Trump’s Tariff Revenues Go? His First Term Provides a Big Clue. Nearly all of Trump’s first-term China tariff revenue went to compensate American farmers facing retaliatory tariffs. Expect a replay in 2025.

www.cfr.org/blog/where-w...

Congressional passivity in the face of one man's irrational obsession with tariff machismo is a grave abdication of constitutional responsibility.

Here is the actual post:
cfr.org/blog/92-perc...

"The president is therefore right when he says farmers 'got' his tariff money. That money came not from China, however, but from taxes he imposed on Americans" . . .

Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.

FOMC members’ 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year “dot plot” rate projections are appalling guides to actual rate-setting. Here's why this makes "forward guidance" pernicious . . .

cfr.org/blog/why-fed...

Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.

"Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance"

My latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
www.cfr.org/blog/why-fed...

The Fed Should Stop Giving Forward Guidance About Its Interest Rate Plans The Fed can give forward guidance, or it can be data dependent, but not both, Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding write in a guest commentary.

My column in today's Barron's . . .

"The Fed Doesn’t Have a Crystal Ball. It Should Quit the Predictions."
barrons.com/articles/fed...

My CFR Global Imbalances Tracker is updated.

The big imbalance story of 2024 is the United States and China, with the former achieving a trillion-dollar trade deficit and the latter a near-equivalent surplus.

www.cfr.org/report/globa...

My CFR Global Trade Tracker is updated.

After falling by 5% in 2023, the value of global goods trade rebounded by an estimated 2% in 2024. Trump-triggered tariff wars, however, threaten to hit trade hard in 2025.

www.cfr.org/tracker/glob...

Opinion | The Fed Can’t Pin Inflation on Trump The central bank has the power to maintain stable prices, and there is more to the President-elect’s economic policy than tariffs.

The logic of this audition tape op-ed is ridiculous.

Yes, Kevin, it is "the Fed's job is to stop second-order effects of price changes."

How does it do that, Kevin?

Tighter monetary policy.

wsj.com/opinion/the-... via @WSJopinion

Nice illustration of how national security exceptions at the WTO have ballooned, reaching an all-time high of 95 in 2024, via @bennsteil.bsky.social, Elisabeth Harding, @cfr.org

Since 2017:
🇺🇸: 30
🇲🇽: 14
🇨🇭: 12
🇧🇷: 10
🇸🇦: 8

www.cfr.org/blog/soaring...

Why I'm here, reason 42.

Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.

Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System

My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . .
on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6

The WTO Has Been Crippled by Trump and Biden’s Reliance on National Security Exemptions The global trading regime appears unsalvageable after the Trump and Biden administrations blocked Appellate Body nominations and invoked national security, Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding write in a ...

My latest Barron's column argues that the surge in “national security” Notifications and the demise of the dispute settlement mechanism have effectively killed the WTO's stewardship of the multilateral trading system.

(Click on the "X" at the link below for access.)
www.barrons.com/articles/how...

I second that emotion.

The @cfr.org Sovereign Risk Tracker is updated.

10 countries have our highest default-risk rating (10)—meaning a 50%+ chance of default in the next 5 years: Argentina, Belarus, Ghana, Lebanon, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, & Venezuela.

on.cfr.org/48kSWoC

How Trump Can Control the Fed Could President-elect Donald Trump end Fed independence on monetary policy? A legislative anomaly gives him a way.

My latest @cfr.org blog post . . .

"How Trump Can Control the Fed"
on.cfr.org/4hRo3xj