Zongyuan “Zoe” Liu

I am happy that the paperback of "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is now available! Get a copy and chat with me, or to impress your in-laws! 😊 a.co/d/al0rW31

Unemployment could rise but in a country where factories are already highly automated, the political fallout is likely to be muted. China has withstood worse. SoE reforms led to over 76 million workers being laid off in 1992-2002. A new wave of layoffs is unlikely to shake the CPC’s grip on power.

Trump’s tariffs sting and China’s leaders know it. They could hit China’s low-value-added light manufacturing particularly hard. But shrinking exports might end up benefiting China by accelerating industrial consolidation, forcing laggards out of the game, and improving efficiency.

My latest piece @projectsyndicate.bsky.social explains China's sentiment to Trump's tariffs. BJ views it has weathered it well and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced its long game is paying off. Trump's tariffs have also turbocharged China's tech ambitions.

Next on our Forward Thinkers list is @zoe-liu.bsky.social, Senior Fellow for China Studies @cfr.org.

What Role for China in Ukraine? | by Thomas Graham & Zongyuan Zoe Liu - Project Syndicate Thomas Graham & Zongyuan Zoe Liu say that while the Chinese have benefited strategically from Russia's war, they could gain more from peace.

Giving China a stake in Ukraine’s reconstruction could transform it from a passive pro-Russia bystander into an active participant in peacemaking, write @zoe-liu.bsky.social and Thomas Graham.

Re President Xi's state visit to Russia, my colleague @cfr.org Tom Graham and I wrote @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on China's role in Ukraine. Trump said Xi can help end the war. We beg the difference. We show why China is needed for an enduring peace but cannot swiftly deliver an end to the war.

YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies The Trade War and Geopolitical Competition with China | The Capital Cable #112

What's happening with the trade war and geopolitical competition with China?

Next on the @csis.org Capital Cable #112 featuring:

▪️ @zoe-liu.bsky.social
▪️ Evan Medeiros
▪️ @victordcha.bsky.social
▪️ Mark Lippert

📆 5/8 • 9:30 am EDT

Watch here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQlb...

But what may cause China to blink? www.cfr.org/blog/what-ma...

Several news stories today report that China is signaling openness to trade talks, which fits with patterns of Chinese diplomacy. As I wrote recently: "Beijing has shown a strong capacity for retaliation and a tactical openness to negotiation, but not a willingness to kowtow."

How China Armed Itself for the Trade War Beijing’s high-risk approach to its economic confrontation with Washington.

And as a result of the party’s control over information, particularly regarding foreign affairs, any encounter with the Trump administration can be framed domestically as Xi standing firm against foreign bullying. @cfr.org www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...

China signals opening for trade talks with US State media message suggests softening of Beijing’s position, say analysts

As I argued in my latest @foreignaffairs.com article, the concentration of authority allows the Chinese leader to make sweeping policy decisions unchallenged and to reverse course just as swiftly. Re"China signals opening for trade talks with US" on.ft.com/4d7EovN

Great to see @zoe-liu.bsky.social on Bluesky, sharp new piece in Foreign Affairs:
"The scope of a deal between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳... has likely narrowed over the past month. If Trump wants to secure an agreement, he may have to join the Chinese people in 'eating bitterness' and accept some tough compromises"

How China Armed Itself for the Trade War Beijing’s high-risk approach to its economic confrontation with Washington.

Beijing has spent years preparing for an economic confrontation with Washington, writes @zoe-liu.bsky.social. “Unlike during the first Trump administration, China is now, if necessary, ready to decouple from the United States.”

"the United States will always run a trade deficit with China because Americans have no desire to reclaim low-end manufacturing jobs from Chinese factories. The challenge Trump faces is how to structure that deficit in a politically durable way"

How China Armed Itself for the Trade War Beijing’s high-risk approach to its economic confrontation with Washington.

My latest @foreignaffairs.com I explain why this time Beijing, if necessary, is ready to decouple from the US. Chinese leadership harbor no illusion that China can win a trade war with the US. But they are willing to risk one that Trump might lose. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/how-ch...

I recently had the privilege of joining @bilalhafeez.bsky.social on Macro Hive to discuss a wide range of issues in the context of US-China trade tensions. I enjoyed the conversation greatly! We covered how, why, and broader implications. Check it out and share with me your thoughts! 🙂 @cfr.org

YouTube video by Council on Foreign Relations China's been preparing for a Trump trade-war scenario for years

At a @cfr.org briefing with my distinguished colleagues, I explained how China’s leadership is prepared to respond to rising trade tensions despite not wanting a trade war and why China has the flexibility to pivot quickly. youtube.com/shorts/RtuYb...

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-China tariff fight.

@adamposen.bsky.social convincingly explains why the Trump admin may have chosen to go to an unwinnable trade war. "U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy will, and the suffering will only increase if the United States escalates." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

I had the privilege to write for The International Economy amid other prominent thinkers discussing the proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord. I argue it is not a magic wand. As it is envisioned, it is unlikely to achieve the desired goal of trade rebalance. Full collection in pdf:

I hope leaders of "great powers" can take the time to visit grocery stores as normal people. I hope they realize that people's day-to-day life and paychecks and bills are NOT negligible accounting numbers that can be rounded down.

China Is Hardening Itself for Economic War Beijing is trying to close economic vulnerabilities out of fear of U.S. containment.

Recent events made me think of a @foreignpolicy.com piece I wrote in 2022 on how China prepares for an economic war. While this piece has aged well, I am not happy. I am saddened normal people & businesses are becoming collateral damages in great power competitions. foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/16/c...

YouTube video by Council on Foreign Relations Why Trump's China tariffs could backfire

At a recent @cfr.org event, I discussed with my colleague Rush Doshi why China is NOT desperate for a deal with the Trump administration. A deal is something nice to have, but not a must have. This time China is more prepared, experienced, and capable of retaliation. youtu.be/R8wc3MUWj1Q?...

Can Trump Strike a Grand Deal With Beijing? A bargain between the two superpowers could preserve global peace. But what would it cost?

My latest @foreignpolicy.com on what it takes to get a Trump-Xi grand bargain. To succeed in negotiations with China, Trump administration needs to present Chinese leadership with a dilemma rather than a direct confrontation. @cfr.org 🧵1/9 foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/29/t...

The United States Must Address Challenges to Its Leadership in Space U.S. leadership in space is critical to U.S. national security, leadership, hard and soft power, and to the security and prosperity of the American people, argues a new CFR Task Force.

The United States needs to act now to maintain its leadership in outer space, argues a new CFR Task Force.

Read the recommendations for how to make space a national priority:

Trump's foreign policy announcements have made me think about a game most of us have played: Monopoly. 🎩 I wrote about this in my @foreignpolicy.com piece, in the context of exploring how Trump and Xi could to redefine US-China relations.

China’s Real Economic Crisis The Chinese economy is stuck. Following Beijing’s decision, in late 2022, to abruptly end its draconian “zero COVID” policy, many observers assumed that China’s growth engine would rapidly reignite. A...

“In the West, money influences politics, but in China it is the opposite: politics influences money.”

Read Zongyuan Zoe Liu on what it will take to reverse China’s present economic stasis:

I dug into data and made 5 charts @cfr.org to show how Trump’s Mexico tariffs if effective could shift gears in US auto market and why such tariffs may further elevate the comparative advantage of Chinese EV makers at the cost of US automakers. 🚗 All 5 available link:
www.cfr.org/blog/tariff-...

Ha, very timely and must listen!

And many many thanks to @beijingpalmer.bsky.social for taking my grand bargain piece and for making me think harder to make the piece better. 😉 I rarely write pieces that aim to prescribe policy recommendations; but this time I tried.