Jed Kolko

Republicans are more upbeat about the economy than Democrats are, but the industries Republicans are more likely to work in are losing jobs.

2025 Government Shutdown FAQs on BLS Data — The Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics The Friends of BLS  The 2025 Government Shutdown and BLS Data: Questions & Answers How will the government shutdown, which may be over by the time you read this, affect BLS data? F...

Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social

"Trade wars screw up other things."

Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.

Requiem for a Jobs Report Today marks the second missing jobs report. Damage is piling up

Some thoughts in lieu of this morning’s jobs report.

open.substack.com/pub/jedkolko...

Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.)

Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.

What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...

Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.

The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.

New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently?

(And, if different, how?)

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Methodologies diverge. ADP reflects preliminary benchmark revision, while BLS payrolls won't until Jan 2026. That's extra reason for not drawing conclusions with precision.

ADP as published: -32k
ADP w/o revision: +11k

Plus, must weigh this all against a low breakeven rate!

White House withdraws Trump’s controversial nominee to lead BLS after ousting predecessor over jobs data | CNN Politics The White House has sent paperwork to the Senate to withdraw the nomination of E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, three sources told CNN.

EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn.

www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6.

“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”

www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky

That reported multi-million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up The recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January is almost certainly wrong.

DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data

Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.

Update:

The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

To be clear: this is bad! An essential data release is being delayed without explanation, at a time when the Administration has expressed distrust in BLS data.

There are real and immediate threats to the US statistical system. But be clear about the threats. Delaying CEX is not the same as, say, suppressing or fudging CPI to hide bad news.

The CEX delay is likely due to resource cuts, not meddling. BLS has lost lots of staff and expertise.

An extended delay COULD lead to politically-influenced choices about how to weight the CPI in the absence of needed CEX inputs. But that's not where we are today.

CEX reports on patterns of consumer spending, by category and demographics -- e.g. how much do older adults spend on food.

The spending mix is critical for calculating inflation: it shows how to combine prices of eggs, airplane tickets, TVs, etc. into an overall price level.

The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.

Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled Consumer Expenditures 2024 Data Release to be Rescheduled (9/19/2025)

#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency.
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.

www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...

#econsky

The importance of credible government economic data to business | Brookings On September 18, Brookings will host former BLS commissioners, government officials, private-sector leaders, and economists to discuss data integrity.

Why do businesses need credible official economic data?

Come find out!

2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual

www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...

Opinion | Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs They’re costly for companies that use the metal to make things—including recyclers.

Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward.

One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.

NEW: At her confirmation hearing, Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, avoided directly answering whether she agrees the president is unable to conduct a new census before 2030 unless Congress passes a law

Fed nerds: would Miran have a projection in the SEP today, or would timing be too tight for his projection to be prepared and included?

The person who could reshape US economic statistics -- including oversight of the BLS -- has their Senate confirmation hearing at 10 am today.

Senate Commerce Announces Hearing for NTSB, OSTP, and Commerce Nominees WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, will convene a nominations hearing for nominees of the National Transport...

Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs.

Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce.

www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...

Today, Congressional Budget Office lowered its GDP growth projection for 2025 and raised it for 2026. Revision reflects 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and lower immigration.

CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.

“ Unfortunately, the U.S. Census Bureau was not able to renew the contract with the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) to maintain the site, and the online community will sunset on September 30, 2025”