Big immigration decline.
Agreement among different agencies' estimates.
Downward adjustments coming soon to the CPS.
And revisions to state populations: New York up, Florida down.
Key takeaways from today's new Census population estimates for 2025.
jedkolko.substack.com/p/four-takea...
Census releases 2025 population & immigration estimates next Tuesday.
Their webinar today described improvements to measuring (1) emigration in 2025 and (2) local immigration in 2022-2024.
Also: Census hinted its 2025 estimates and 2026 projections will be "close" to CBOs.
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Is anyone from the current Administration speaking at the #ASSA2026 conference?
04.01.2026 17:23 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
Come for “mindless nitpicking” about immigration, tomorrow at 8 am at #ASSA2026
eppro01.ativ.me/appinfo.php?...
Joyce Meyer was confirmed as the Commerce Dept's Under Secretary for Economic Affairs.
The position oversees the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Administration has proposed moving the Bureau of Labor Statistics into Commerce under this position, too.
Republicans are more upbeat about the economy than Democrats are, but the industries Republicans are more likely to work in are losing jobs.
21.11.2025 13:51 — 👍 28 🔁 9 💬 0 📌 4
Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
#econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social
"Trade wars screw up other things."
Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.
Some thoughts in lieu of this morning’s jobs report.
open.substack.com/pub/jedkolko...
Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.)
Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.
Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently?
(And, if different, how?)
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Methodologies diverge. ADP reflects preliminary benchmark revision, while BLS payrolls won't until Jan 2026. That's extra reason for not drawing conclusions with precision.
ADP as published: -32k
ADP w/o revision: +11k
Plus, must weigh this all against a low breakeven rate!
EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn.
www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...
12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6.
“The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...”
www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
#econsky
DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data
23.09.2025 16:04 — 👍 13 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 1Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.
22.09.2025 16:48 — 👍 7 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
Update:
The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.
To be clear: this is bad! An essential data release is being delayed without explanation, at a time when the Administration has expressed distrust in BLS data.
20.09.2025 13:34 — 👍 11 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0There are real and immediate threats to the US statistical system. But be clear about the threats. Delaying CEX is not the same as, say, suppressing or fudging CPI to hide bad news.
20.09.2025 13:34 — 👍 9 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
The CEX delay is likely due to resource cuts, not meddling. BLS has lost lots of staff and expertise.
An extended delay COULD lead to politically-influenced choices about how to weight the CPI in the absence of needed CEX inputs. But that's not where we are today.
CEX reports on patterns of consumer spending, by category and demographics -- e.g. how much do older adults spend on food.
The spending mix is critical for calculating inflation: it shows how to combine prices of eggs, airplane tickets, TVs, etc. into an overall price level.
The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.
20.09.2025 13:32 — 👍 56 🔁 22 💬 3 📌 3
There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling.
So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure.
The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.
#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency.
Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll.
www.bls.gov/cex/notices/...
#econsky
Why do businesses need credible official economic data?
Come find out!
2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual
www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...
Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...
18.09.2025 10:28 — 👍 29 🔁 14 💬 6 📌 4
The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward.
One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.
