Jed Kolko

STATEMENT FROM THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION ON THE DISMISSAL OF THE BLS COMMISSIONER | Martha Starr STATEMENT FROM THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION ON THE DISMISSAL OF THE BLS COMMISSIONER Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commission...

AEA statement is here: www.linkedin.com/posts/martha...

The Nation’s Data at Risk: Ongoing Monitoring The American Statistical Association is the world’s largest community of statisticians, the “Big Tent for Statistics.

Now that threats to federal statistics have gotten your attention, check out the damage that’s already been done:

www.amstat.org/the-nations-...

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

About the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics About BLS

"If asked, 'Is the glass half empty or half full?' At BLS, we see an 8-ounce glass containing 4 ounces."

-- from the About the BLS webpage

www.bls.gov/bls/about-bl...

Major data revisions are coming That should make you trust official statistics more

Actually, data revisions should make you trust official statistics more.

www.slowboring.com/p/major-data...

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

Reminder #1: do not look at household survey employment changes across years. Population adjustments break the series each January.

Reminder #2: this is the HH # adjusted to match the payroll survey concept of employment, which is NOT the headline HH # in the press release.

Annoyingly, July employment change was

+73k payroll survey
-753k household survey

Average monthly since Jan 2025:

+81k payroll
-104k HH

Could hint at further payroll downward revisions to come. All eyes on next month's prelim benchmark revision.

With today's lower payroll growth number and big downward revisions to May & June ...

Payroll growth has been below the breakeven rate for the last three months.

While we're waiting for the effect of tariffs, the effect of immigration policy has been clear.

Immigrant-dependent industries have grown more slowly than other industries since border encounters dropped in mid-2024, and have been basically flat in 2025.

What's driving slower job growth this year?

Federal government and sectors more dependent on immigration (construction, accommodation/food, etc.).

There's been less of a 2024 vs 2025 shift in manufacturing, which is where to look for the primary effect of tariffs.

“Venezuelans, like other immigrants, sit at the dinner table with American family members, and a significant number have U.S. citizen children,” Clemens said. “That’s why making life precarious for Venezuelans, and the potential removal of over 600,000 people, isn’t just about disrupting immigrant lives. It risks a chilling effect that will reach into every corner of American society.”

The US Administration has revoked the legal protected status of about 600,000 Venezuelan immigrants.

What will be the economic ripple effects of that choice?

I spoke with Verónica Egui Brito of the @miamiherald.com —>

www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-...

an excellent two word summary!

What are your favorite examples of places losing population that have managed it well?

And often in more extreme ways. Many rural and some urban areas have experienced large enough population losses (structural economic changes, natural disasters, etc.) to force tough decisions about legacy infrastructure and land use policy.

As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with th...

As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data.

Payrolls, GDP, expenditures, and income will all grow more slowly now that the immigration surge has ended. That changes how we interpret ... everything.

My first piece for @piie.com

www.piie.com/publications...

Cuts to Data Collection May Erode Reliability of Economic Statistics

Powell stressed today that the Fed's decisions will be based on how the economic data performs in coming months.
One problem: That data may be becoming less reliable.
My story on the BLS's latest cuts to CPI data collection:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/b... #EconSky

That one is hard to beat. Which H Mart did those come from?

Not ideal: "Labor Department Relied More on Fuzzier Price Guesses in June Inflation Data" share.google/ZlJB4OdnzJHR...
But: "Critically, there’s been no indication of political pressure on the agency to alter the numbers."

I miss Nuzzel.

Republicans renew a bid to remove noncitizens from the census tally behind voting maps GOP lawmakers are trying again to exclude millions of non-U.S. citizens living in the states from census counts that the 14th Amendment says must include the "whole number of persons in each state."

My latest @npr.org story: Republicans in Congress are reviving a push to exclude millions of people living in the states without U.S. citizenship from #2030Census counts that the 14th Amendment says must include the “whole number of persons in each state”

Social media post from Mark Calabria

Looks like we have a new Chief Statistician of the US...

Peak baby boomers (1957 to 1961) are now hitting 65.

Bigger picture: people are working!

The employment-population ratio (holding age distribution constant) is just slightly below its highest level this quarter-century.

When you hear that [fill in blank] is killing all the jobs, remember this chart.

The June report helped close some of this gap. In June, employment growth was:

+147k payroll
+751k household survey series adjusted to payroll concept

NOTE the published household number is +93k, but that measure doesn't align with the payroll survey approach

Job growth lags in industries that rely more on unauthorized immigrants.

Those industries have grown more slowly than other private-sector industries since late 2024.

Federal government and manufacturing lost jobs in June 2025.

Job growth driven by arts & entertainment, state & local government, and health care.

June 2025 payroll growth of +147k was above the breakeven level needed to keep the labor market steady.

Payroll growth have been ahead of breakeven level for 8 months.

I expect it to continue to decline, and even the current level could get revised downward if the Census population estimates underlying them turn out to be too high.

So I agree with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social @taraelizwatson.bsky.social that actual net immigration in 2025 is almost surely lower than the Census 1.2-1.4m implication, and probably dramatically lower and possibly even negative.

www.aei.org/research-pro...