kevin chen

Exactly what i need! though, how do i preview?

If ATE in logs, one asymptotically valid answer is OLS y on treatment, maybe cluster SE by person. Asymptopia is a little heroic here…, but can interpret as the design-based Neyman variance?

I just observe the marginal distributions for Y1 and Y0, but avg ratio depends on joint

(This is for person-task being iid. Have not thought through the fact that you have multiple tasks per person)

Can change goalpost by targeting ATE/E(Y0) or take ATE in log Y instead…If so then it’s standard

but probably hard at this sample size…

Model-Agnostic Covariate-Assisted Inference on Partially Identified Causal Effects Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper b...

this parameter is not point identified without assuming strong homogeneity. lihua has some work on bounding arxiv.org/abs/2310.08115

The Thresholding Multiple Outcomes method addresses spatial correlation in regressions by using information from additional outcomes to identify correlated locations, from Stefano DellaVigna, Guido Imbens, Woojin Kim, and @dritzwoller.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w33716

[2025-04-18 Fri (UTC), no new articles found for econEM Econometrics]

ah, yes, the ol'
import(tau) == export
then run a single step of newton's method

Ha, have a little stage fright about sending to you this first draft, but obviously very curious about your reaction!

thanks for two great presentations (clearly I learned a lot!)

recently sorta unconfused myself on something i was confused by for a long time -

Looking forward!

But @jannspiess.bsky.social would know :)

Improving Inference from Simple Instruments through Compliance Estimation Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exo...

This sounds like the exact setting of coussens and spiess (?)

arxiv.org/abs/2108.03726

If I understand correctly, it’s doing the same conceptual
thing as rdhonest but imposing that CATE(x) is linear. If so, then probably can extend to discrete running variables (as long as CATE(x) being linear in x still makes sense)

New paper!

One could do a cross-fit version of this where you flip the roles of the train-test split. (This is basically SSIV, but hopefully some machine learning method learns E[treatment | instrument] well)

Ah, here's a cheap thing. If you're willing to split sample into (train, test), you could use the training set to compute *whatever* estimate of E[treatment | instrument] you'd like. Call what you get \hat f(z). Then on the test set, get the predictions \hat f(z) and 2SLS w/ \hat f(z)

Believe 2sls with multiple instruments is equivalent to 2sls using the first-stage fitted value as an instrument. Even if z2 is just noise (but relatively low dimensional), that’s not going to change the fitted value by much if n is reasonably large. I would just include both

I also wondered about this…
“The multiset of vectors x_m, m \in M, is linearly independent”?

“October 19, 1989” lol

1. consider the hilbert space of assets
2. the map that sends an asset to "its price in cash" is a rank 1 operator on this space
3. consider the singular value decomposition of this operator
4. admire the right singular vector
5. ???
6. profit

so if the EO were to stand, a pregnant woman legally permitted to stay/work in the US would need to exit the US, give birth, then apply for a dependent visa for her newborn, right?

It's also not clear—were it the policy—whether there is any legal channel to obtain a visa for someone's pending child?

err, i just learned about this - doesn't look like a mistranslation to me

maybe "stale and dry" for 干巴？

a close up of a cartoon character 's fist against a blue background . ALT: a close up of a cartoon character 's fist against a blue background .

my inner frequentist

David Smith (amateur mathematician) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_S...
I think one can argue this (collab w/ professionals) counts as an amateur breakthrough in math

www.quantamagazine.org/teenager-sol...
does this count as amateur?

Dumb Q: is this the complete class theorem?

I don’t think this contradicts? Do and talk about actually popular things and avoid taking unpopular positions, regardless of what the Groups think