Joshua R. Kroeker

A reaction from the West is not only needed, but is deeply overdue. It is time to take real actions, at the risk of sounding like a broken record. For how long can Russian cynicism and, frankly speaking, complete disregard for human and civilian life be tolerated?

I try to avoid posting news here without analysis or at least adding a HUMINT perspective, but this is too horrible to avoid: Today, Russia has hit a pension distribution point with a guided bomb (KAB) in a village in the Donetsk region. 21 people killed, with bodies torn apart lying everywhere.

Drohnenproduktion in der Ukraine: Die Technik entwickelt sich rasant und verändert den Krieg. picture alliance

neue Technologien, die schnell weiterentwickelt werden – auf beiden Seiten. Im neuen Front-Update in Kooperation mit @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social
und der von ihm gegründeten Reaktion Group zeigt
@table.media, wie die Lage in der Ostukraine ist.

Analyse (Abo): table.media/security/ana...

6/ Peace talk will continue. But as our analysis shows, a durable settlement remains a distant prospect.

5/ The likeliest outcome: a grinding stalemate.
-Russia presses for U.S. disengagement.
-Europe floats guarantees too weak to deter Moscow.
-Ukraine refuses to surrender core territory.

4/ On the battlefield, Russia briefly advanced near Pokrovsk in mid-August, but was pushed back within days. Both sides continue to absorb heavy losses, but neither feels desperate enough to concede.

3/ At best, symbolic guarantees may emerge: weak enough not to provoke Moscow, yet strong enough to give Kyiv political cover. But such measures would leave Ukraine exposed to renewed aggression.

2/ Moscow still sees no reason to weaken its hand. Russia’s demands—Ukraine withdrawing from Donbas and limiting its armed forces—remain unacceptable to Kyiv.

Even Western talk of “security guarantees” risks stalling talks, as Russia frames them as foreign intervention.

Where do U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Negotiations go from here? | Reaktion Group Where do U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations go from here? Despite a flurry of activity in mid-August, including summits in Anchorage, high-level meetings in Washington, and follow-up calls between Pres...

1/ Where do U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations go from here?

Despite a flurry of summits and calls in mid-August, a breakthrough remains unlikely. The positions of Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington remain fundamentally incompatible. 🧵 www.linkedin.com/posts/reakti...

Thank you so much to @hancock2001.bsky.social for your dynamic (and fantastic) edits in this piece as everything was changing on the geopolitical stage while writing it.

Over the last 4 days, Ukrainians hit the streets to send a clear message: their European path is non-negotiable.

In my latest for @MoscowTimes, I explore Ukraine’s civic resolve — and the risks this moment poses at home and abroad.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/25/u...

“The slight shift by Trump in favour of Ukraine, although it is good news, does not yet represent a significant change in U.S. policy.”

I am again quoted in french media, Les Echos, on the topic of air defence aid for Ukraine. The piece can be read here in French: www.lesechos.fr/monde/enjeux...

vertieft in einer Analyse wird die aktuelle Lage sichtbar.

Danke an @reaktiongroup.bsky.social für die Zusammenarbeit, besonders @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social

Das Update zur milit. Situation in der Ukraine wird etwa alle zwei Wochen erscheinen, mehr erfahren Sie hier:
table.media/security/ana...

diese dann aus Verzweiflung nach Europa gingen. Das Problem droht auch beim russisch-ukrainischen Krieg.
Dagegen setzen wir beim @table.media auf regelmäßige Updates zur militärischen Situation in der Ukraine (und zur humanitären sowieso). Auf einen Blick oder ...

Die Karte zeigt östliche Gebiete der Ukraine und die aktuelle militärische Lage. Russland streckt die Front, indem es sehr breit angreift und dadurch ukrainische Kräfte überfordert.

Ein großes Problem beim Thema Sicherheit ist Gewöhnung. Gewöhnt man sich an manche Umstände, sinkt die Aufmerksamkeit für das Thema. Es war beim Krieg in Syrien stark zu merken. Der Westen stellte sogar kaum noch Mittel für die Versorgung der Geflüchteten in der Region zur Verfügung, bis ...

Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine Trump said the missiles are necessary for defending Ukraine because Putin "talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening."

If this is true, then I will be the first to thank Donald Trump. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Given the divisiveness of Ukraine policy within the Republican Party, whose members include both outspoken supporters and enemies of Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression, we can unfortunately expect this dynamic to play out again and again

This leads to a contradictory mess that is ultimately adjudicated by a vibe-obsessed executive who, frankly, is not particularly interested in policy wonkery outside of a few core issues, most notably tariffs and immigration.

The result is an administration where every ambitious member of Trumpworld competes to put their own agenda on top of the same Christmas tree.

What we are seeing is just one example of a weirdly schizophrenic administration, whose officials range from old school Reaganites like Marco Rubio to newly-minted Republicans like Tulsi Gabbard and RFJ Jr who joined the party strictly for MAGA’s indulgence of conspiracy theories.

Even Trump denied knowing anything about the stoppage, telling a reporter: “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?” when asked who had ordered the shipments paused.

The cancellation of Ukraine aid, which was made on the grounds of low U.S. stockpiles, appears to be his thus far most successful attempt to shape actions on the ground, leaving everyone else in Washington blindsided.

Among other things, according to a Politico article, he told a British delegation to call back a carrier strike group from Asia Pacific, telling them that “we don’t want you there,” while also calling for a review of AUKUS, intended primarily to counter China.

Now that he’s in a position to do more than quarrel online, he has aggressively tried using his office in the Pentagon to play an outsized role in top policymaking. These days, he appears to be leaning all the way into isolationism, even with regards to China.

Colby, grandson of the legendary former CIA head Wiliam Colby, spent much of the Biden presidency complaining on social media that the U.S. was doing too much to help Ukraine and not enough to help Taiwan defend against China

Patriot missile resupply is returning to Ukraine, or so says Trump. This comes after a week of D.C. insider gossip in the Beltway press about Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defence who was evidently behind the aid stoppage.

8/
So is this bill about punishing Russia or reshaping global trade on Trump’s terms?
Time will tell. But the ambiguity may be exactly what he wants.

7/
Remember: this isn’t the first time this year Trump has floated triple-digit tariffs—only to pull back when the economic blowback became too obvious.

6/
Key questions now:
– Is Trump really willing to blow up global trade ties over Russian energy?
– Or will he use this as leverage to extract Ukraine-related concessions from India, China, and others?

5/
And then there’s the Trump factor.
With this administration’s unpredictability, it’s unclear if Trump wants to punish Russia’s customers or just use the threat to cut trade deals on his own terms.