Joshua R. Kroeker

Thank you so much to @hancock2001.bsky.social for your dynamic (and fantastic) edits in this piece as everything was changing on the geopolitical stage while writing it.

Over the last 4 days, Ukrainians hit the streets to send a clear message: their European path is non-negotiable.

In my latest for @MoscowTimes, I explore Ukraine’s civic resolve — and the risks this moment poses at home and abroad.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/25/u...

“The slight shift by Trump in favour of Ukraine, although it is good news, does not yet represent a significant change in U.S. policy.”

I am again quoted in french media, Les Echos, on the topic of air defence aid for Ukraine. The piece can be read here in French: www.lesechos.fr/monde/enjeux...

vertieft in einer Analyse wird die aktuelle Lage sichtbar.

Danke an @reaktiongroup.bsky.social für die Zusammenarbeit, besonders @joshuarkroeker.bsky.social

Das Update zur milit. Situation in der Ukraine wird etwa alle zwei Wochen erscheinen, mehr erfahren Sie hier:
table.media/security/ana...

diese dann aus Verzweiflung nach Europa gingen. Das Problem droht auch beim russisch-ukrainischen Krieg.
Dagegen setzen wir beim @table.media auf regelmäßige Updates zur militärischen Situation in der Ukraine (und zur humanitären sowieso). Auf einen Blick oder ...

Die Karte zeigt östliche Gebiete der Ukraine und die aktuelle militärische Lage. Russland streckt die Front, indem es sehr breit angreift und dadurch ukrainische Kräfte überfordert.

Ein großes Problem beim Thema Sicherheit ist Gewöhnung. Gewöhnt man sich an manche Umstände, sinkt die Aufmerksamkeit für das Thema. Es war beim Krieg in Syrien stark zu merken. Der Westen stellte sogar kaum noch Mittel für die Versorgung der Geflüchteten in der Region zur Verfügung, bis ...

Trump says US will send Patriot missiles to Ukraine Trump said the missiles are necessary for defending Ukraine because Putin "talks nice but then he bombs everybody in the evening."

If this is true, then I will be the first to thank Donald Trump. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Given the divisiveness of Ukraine policy within the Republican Party, whose members include both outspoken supporters and enemies of Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression, we can unfortunately expect this dynamic to play out again and again

This leads to a contradictory mess that is ultimately adjudicated by a vibe-obsessed executive who, frankly, is not particularly interested in policy wonkery outside of a few core issues, most notably tariffs and immigration.

The result is an administration where every ambitious member of Trumpworld competes to put their own agenda on top of the same Christmas tree.

What we are seeing is just one example of a weirdly schizophrenic administration, whose officials range from old school Reaganites like Marco Rubio to newly-minted Republicans like Tulsi Gabbard and RFJ Jr who joined the party strictly for MAGA’s indulgence of conspiracy theories.

Even Trump denied knowing anything about the stoppage, telling a reporter: “I don’t know. Why don’t you tell me?” when asked who had ordered the shipments paused.

The cancellation of Ukraine aid, which was made on the grounds of low U.S. stockpiles, appears to be his thus far most successful attempt to shape actions on the ground, leaving everyone else in Washington blindsided.

Among other things, according to a Politico article, he told a British delegation to call back a carrier strike group from Asia Pacific, telling them that “we don’t want you there,” while also calling for a review of AUKUS, intended primarily to counter China.

Now that he’s in a position to do more than quarrel online, he has aggressively tried using his office in the Pentagon to play an outsized role in top policymaking. These days, he appears to be leaning all the way into isolationism, even with regards to China.

Colby, grandson of the legendary former CIA head Wiliam Colby, spent much of the Biden presidency complaining on social media that the U.S. was doing too much to help Ukraine and not enough to help Taiwan defend against China

Patriot missile resupply is returning to Ukraine, or so says Trump. This comes after a week of D.C. insider gossip in the Beltway press about Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defence who was evidently behind the aid stoppage.

8/
So is this bill about punishing Russia or reshaping global trade on Trump’s terms?
Time will tell. But the ambiguity may be exactly what he wants.

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Remember: this isn’t the first time this year Trump has floated triple-digit tariffs—only to pull back when the economic blowback became too obvious.

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Key questions now:
– Is Trump really willing to blow up global trade ties over Russian energy?
– Or will he use this as leverage to extract Ukraine-related concessions from India, China, and others?

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And then there’s the Trump factor.
With this administration’s unpredictability, it’s unclear if Trump wants to punish Russia’s customers or just use the threat to cut trade deals on his own terms.

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That matters. Why?
Because dozens of countries—including key U.S. partners like India and China—still import some Russian energy. Even the U.S. itself still imports uranium from Rosatom, despite a formal ban last year.

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But here’s the catch:
The bill includes a clause that gives the White House full discretion over whether and how the tariffs are actually applied.

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The bill is expected to move through Congress after the July 4th festivities. One of its headline provisions? A whopping 500% tariff on countries that keep buying Russian oil, gas, petroleum products, or uranium.

1/
Lindsey Graham’s weekend golf game with Trump seems to have paid off. Trump reportedly gave him the green light to move forward with a new Russia sanctions bill.

Without high hopes for this admin, its internal competing interests and priorities, to say nothing of its highly temperamental executive, leads to erratic policy. While none of this is great for Ukraine, Colby’s own individual influence within the administration is itself highly precarious.

With the decision apparently made by a relatively minor administration official who has always wanted to do such a thing, there is some chance that it will be reversed.

He spent years on Twitter claiming that the war in Ukraine was a big distraction for policy makers who instead ought to be focused on an upcoming showdown with China, and opposed arms transfers to Ukraine. With Trump’s 2024 victory, he finally got his chance to take his advocacy offline.

This particular stoppage seems to stem from a policy decision made by Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, who since the beginning of the full-scale invasion has essentially positioned himself as a “China hawk, Russia dove.”

This has put extreme strain on their ability to hold the line. The impact of this stoppage, unless reversed, will likely result in significant Ukrainian withdrawals from the front around Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka, Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, perhaps in Sumy region as well.