@mattpattclimate.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the University of St Andrews and NCAS in climate science and ML. Interests in climate dynamics, jet streams and long-term prediction. Formerly at University of Reading and University of Oxford.
Here is the UK November was mostly warmer than average but with a week long cold snap towards the end. It was wet for most with average sunshine. Here is a climate/weather summary for the last year. #dataviz #climatchange #globalwarming
02.12.2025 09:24 — 👍 16 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0This seems to work quite well, with a nice summary for each paper, though I'm sure it misses some nuance.
I tried it and it quickly identified a paper published recently already doing something I have been working on 🙄
The past month's extended ECMWF ensemble sets for the (60N) zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa in late November through December.
The signal for a major sudden stratospheric warming event strengthens through 12th Nov, then abruptly takes on a 'reflective' appearance on 19th Nov...
That makes sense, thanks Vikki!
19.11.2025 10:18 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Hi Vikki, sounds like a super interesting paper! Is this a matter of scale, would knowledge of more local scale circulation or vertical motion do a better job?
19.11.2025 09:54 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0We are convening an EGU 2026 session on the large-scale atmospheric circulation in past, present and future climates! Always a fun and vibrant session, abstract deadline is 15th Jan 💨🌎
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...
Some model output suggests an #ssw sudden stratospheric warming event may take place soon..
More details on this and its possible impacts on our weather...
www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2025/wh...
I was part of a fun study led by Yu-Chiao Liang comparing the response to Arctic sea ice loss of Google's NeuralGCM & two models in PAMIP. This is one of the first studies evaluating a hybrid ML climate model at something it wasn't explicitly trained for.
Main takeaway: ...
The 2025-26 UK storm season has begun, and this week marks 10 years since the first named storm.
We spoke to NCAS researchers about what to expect for the new season and as the climate continues to warm.
ncas.ac.uk/uk-storm-sea...
ECMWF 10 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind ensemble plume from 12 Nov 2025
The ensemble mean from today's IFS subseasonal run almost predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record 😮
Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit
Hats off to Winkelbauer et al - their code is useful and just works! Had no problems with calculating volume transport through a number of straits in HadGEM3
12.11.2025 20:10 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Very rarely does this happen to me so when it happened today I felt the need to mark it with a meme.
(Calculations of transports in ocean straits, StraitFlux doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... for those interested)
ECMWF subseasonal forecast for zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60°N. The forecast shows a slowdown of westerlies with a potential for even a reversal to easterlies in late November.
Latest ECMWF subseasonal forecast shows ensemble mean zonal wind of about 5 m/s at 10 hPa in late November, with roughly 20–30 % of ensemble members indicating a reversal to easterlies (i.e. going < 0 m/s).
This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!
🚨🌡️🔥🌍🌤️🚨
New paper alert in J. Climate from the Climate Dynamics Lab @earthscista.bsky.social @uniofstandrews.bsky.social:
Tropical temperature distributions over a wide range of climates: theory and idealized simulations
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
The other key takeaway here about these kinds of winters is that we see more frequent early winter -AO/-NAO & stratospheric warming events (as the latest Euro weeklies below suggest), followed by a much stronger polar vortex in mid-late winter (Jan-Feb)
03.11.2025 22:05 — 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Hurricane Melissa will soon make landfall in Jamaica
With a central pressure of 892 mb, the Category 5 storm is provisionally the joint third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record
Catastrophic sustained winds of 185 mph & intense rainfall bring a life-threatening situation
*** 1 metre of rain ***
27.10.2025 18:03 — 👍 71 🔁 45 💬 4 📌 1So people demand "AI" sycophancy, refuse to interact w/ *less* sycophantic "AI", & then get increasingly ill-disposed toward interacting w/ other human beings, preferring, again, an "AI" system that is actively locking them into a loop of skills dependency, bias confirmation, & hostility.
SEEMS BAD
Light speed is fast, but space is vast...
17.11.2024 22:54 — 👍 208 🔁 84 💬 6 📌 6“On average, people spend 56.6 hours a year - equivalent to two days and nine hours - talking about it [weather], with 60% saying it’s their go-to small talk topic.“
Weather doesn’t need to stay at small talk!
From St Andrews you can see a striking inversion looking north towards the Tay. Bright sunshine in Fife, thick cloud in Dundee.
20.10.2025 09:26 — 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Longtime climate scientist J. Michael Wallace got his start in meteorology back when pre-internet conspiracy theorists asserted that a nuclear test caused a tornado... Now he reflects on a heap of lessons learned as global warming science has piled up. revkin.substack.com/p/warming-wo... 🧪
15.10.2025 13:33 — 👍 7 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 3⚠️ England has 2nd worst harvest on record
New Defra data shows that 2024 harvest has been pushed into 3rd place, as 3️⃣ of the 5️⃣ worst harvests on record seen this decade alone.
Net zero only credible solution to reduce impacts of climate change.
eciu.net/analysis/re...
An atmospheric general circulation model you can run on a Python Jupyter notebook?! Heck yeah! Check out this project- both an educational tool for undergraduates/graduate students, and a research tool for scientists interested in idealized climate modeling.
journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
For so long, fossil fuel projects have said their contribution to climate change is "negligible".
Turns out that's wrong.
Our research in NPJ Climate Action proves it.
Every tonne of CO2 matters.
@21stcenturyweather.bsky.social
@minderoo.bsky.social
#climatechange
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Coming soon in November - some incredible scientific computing training by @ncas-uk.bsky.social. Just starting out? Or needing to brush up on new tools? We've got it covered 👇
10.10.2025 12:09 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
How does working in atmospheric science during a climate crisis impact you?
We asked our colleagues to share their thoughts on the theme of this year's World Mental Health Day - mental health in catastrophes and emergencies.
#WMHD25 #WorldMentalHealthDay
There's a strong high over NW Europe today.
In south-western UK, sea-level pressure is now widely reading 1034 mb (interestingly a tad higher than last night's GFS run predicted), which is the highest reading in that area since the first two days of March (peaked near 1037 mb).
