Dr Steve Westlake

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" - James Hansen et al.

mailchi.mp/caa/another-...

The optimist vs pessimist divide in #climate debates isn’t usually about the data.

It’s about how the same graphs are read, what people emphasise, what they discount, and how they interpret pace and stakes.

Here’s what I mean 🧵👇

Coal power generation falls in China and India for first time since 1970s ‘Historic’ moment in biggest coal-consuming countries could bring decline in global emissions, analysis says

This is huge: For the first time since the early 1970s, coal power generation has fallen in both China & India.

It undercuts claims that decarbonisation is pointless while they expand coal. Renewables are no longer just adding capacity — they’re displacing coal.

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice

New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Thanks Olav!

This thread responds to Prof. Christian Dunn’s Telegraph piece on #climate communication.

I argue it misdiagnoses public disengagement, underplays escalating scientific risk, & reproduces a media narrative that has actively shaped, not merely reflected, public resistance to climate action 🧵

Thank you!

Themes from Steve's research are informing our new Climate Leadership Research Centre, led by Oxford University in partnership with Bath University : leadership.climate.ox.ac.uk

And if you're really keen, here's a PhD on low-carbon leading by example... 😅

"The power of leading by example with high-impact low-carbon behaviour: emulation, trust, credibility, justice"

orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/15...

Something we all knew intuitively: Leading by example, or walking the walk. We need to elect more principled representatives folks!

“We can't be too saintly”: Why members of parliament in the United Kingdom are reluctant to lead by example with low-carbon behaviour Low-carbon behaviour change from individuals is both essential for meeting climate change targets and highly politically contentious. Shifting away fr…

Journal article exploring why politicians are reluctant to lead by example too overtly...

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Journal article here showing people really want to see leaders leading by example on climate... www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Politicians flying less or cutting out meat is ‘missing link’ in climate action Exclusive: Study suggests people more willing to reduce own carbon footprint if they see leaders doing the same

More details on leading by example here... www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Wise messaging👏, in case of interest... bsky.app/profile/stev...

Politicians flying less or cutting out meat is ‘missing link’ in climate action Exclusive: Study suggests people more willing to reduce own carbon footprint if they see leaders doing the same

6/ Since high income often equates to high status, that gives wealthy people a disproportionate social & cultural influence

But as @steveclimate.bsky.social argues, they should be leading by example - not explicitly endorsing the most problematic behaviours and lifestyles

Extreme inequality in personal carbon emissions is a massive issue. Addressing is matter of justice and, crucially, is essential for achieving buy-in for climate policies.

Perhaps understandable this is not a fight Polanski is choosing right now.

6/6

By decentring individuals, Polanski makes it harder for billionaire-owned media and political rivals to portray him as “extreme” (although they will still do this).

And by walking the talk, he gains credibility and avoids accusations of hypocrisy.

But, one key further points...
5/

How world leaders’ high-carbon travel choices could delay climate action Research shows people don’t take politicians seriously on climate change if they don’t seem fully committed.

Research has found that people really want consistency between words and actions on climate change. Leaders who make low-carbon choices are more credible, liked, and trusted. The opposite is true too...

4/

theconversation.com/how-world-le...

His behaviour signals what he thinks is appropriate personal action in a climate emergency, while acknowledging others' circumstances, and not directly telling anyone what to do (which few of us enjoy).

But leading by example on climate is crucial and powerful...
3/

His actions speak louder than words: “Polanski… is vegan and does not fly or drive. ‘I have the privilege and the time to be able to make those choices,’ he told The Times. ‘Someone can be an environmentalist and still not be able to make those choices’”.

This is clever messaging because...
2/

A canny political and media strategy from @zackpolanski.bsky.social. Immediately he defuses climate delayers’ favourite cynical attack lines, and avoids headlines like “Polanski says you should never go on holiday, drive a car, or eat meat”.

But, crucially, he's leading by example...
1/🧵

1/ Yes the globally wealthy have outsized emissions, and yes that’s a massive problem

But it’s actually only a small part of their devastating influence on the conditions that support life
🧵

UK farmers lose £800m after heat and drought cause one of worst harvests on record Many now concerned about ability to make living in fast-changing climate after one of worst grain harvests recorded

This is scary. "Three of the five worst harvests on record have now occurred since 2020, leaving some farmers asking whether the growing impacts of the climate crisis are making it too financially risky to sow their crops." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Thanks Tina! The speakers were brilliant

@tessakhan.bsky.social @mikebernerslee.bsky.social @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social @angelaisfranc.bsky.social @hughmontgomery.bsky.social @nebriefing.bsky.social

I don't, but I'm sure that info will be published soon

Final speaker is Tessa Khan on the energy transition:

"New technologies are vastly more efficient than burning fossil fuels.

In the 1960s the UK transformed its energy system, and we can do it again - in a way that is genuinely just.

We must seize this opportunity"

Angela Francis on economics and vested interests:

"The fossil fuel companies buy lobbyists, media space, even politicians.

The companies of the future get crowded out.

But the costs of inaction are far greater than the costs of action.

And the UK can make a difference."

Powerful message on national security from Lt Gen Richard Nugee

"We are not yet acting as if peace and tackling climate change are two sides of the same coin.

Cascading risks mean we face instability at home, the potential of an ungovernable state, the very breakdown of the norms of society."