Alex Scott

The question I'm left with: (given this was published pre-Trump)

If successfully managing the climate crisis will depend on the West and the BRICS together mobilising trade and investment for a fairer global share of the wins and losses from the transition, how do we deal with a megalomaniac US?

The UK has a significant role to play as an effective global governance innovator.

But needs to sort its relationship with the EU to work together to build bridges with the rest of the world, demonstrate an economic transition WITH public support for changes at home AND scaling support overseas.

Critically, the West needs to buck up and prioritise fairness & justice for geostrategic & national interests.

Hill points out the West's own-goals diminishing relationships and trust.

A fairness approach means supporting transition investments everywhere, not just slapping on a CBAM.

This means shifting EMDE investment from a sphere of geopolitical competition for influence to a global to one of global cooperation.

Which depends on global cooperation around a rules based order currently threatened by great power competition and far right populism.

We must get investment and trade right to avoid baking in an unfair two-tier global economic order where those able to rapidly shift energy systems get to dominate industrial supply chains.

But in an era of economic nationalism dis-coordinated industrial drives will waste money, expose new vulnerabilities & leave too many countries behind.

Hill predicts by the mid 2030s power, road & buildings transitions will have largely transitioned in major emitters and agriculture, shipping and industry could shift faster than expected.

Not fast enough but the embrace of industrial planning opens doors to hasten the transition like we need to.

"Perceptions that fiscal constraints and public
opinion prevent governments doing what is both necessary and in their interests are generally not backed
up by evidence and are a matter of political choice, not fact."

Ex-COP26 CEO Peter Hill's climate geopolitics insight is well worth your time.

A🧵

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The next steps in EU geopolitical engagement:

- power EU economy with clean energy to reignite innovation

- continue clean tech partnerships in Africa, Latin America, Asia Pacific that enable local industry to develop ("Because this is also in our interest")

- engage constructively with China

The clincher:

"why are [new trade deals with EU] all happening today? It is not only because Europe is a large and attractive market. But because with Europe, what you see is what you get. We play by the rules."

Special Address by President von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum 'Check against delivery' Lieber Klaus Schwab, Liebe Karin Keller-Sutter, Your Majesties, Presidents, Prime Ministers, Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen, The first quarter of the century has come to a

Von Der Leyen set out EU's geopolitical rationale at the World Economic Forum:

"The Paris Agreement continues to be the best hope of all humanity. So Europe will stay the course, and keep working with all nations that want to protect nature and stop global warming."

ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

EU asserting a strong force for global climate cooperation in the face of President Trump's decision to again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement.

Global reaction to Trump quitting the Paris Agreement (again) - thread collating top tier responses...

bsky.app/profile/ed-k...