Killian Clarke @kbclarke - Bluesky Profile

Thanks to the @mes-crown.bsky.social for inviting me to write this piece about how oil wealth has empowered Saudi Arabia and the UAE to be the main spoilers of democratic change in the Middle East since 2011

28.03.2025 01:44 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Cool-looking new paper from @annemeng.bsky.social and @anthlittle.bsky.social. If it’s anything like their past work, it’s sure to be 🔥

27.02.2025 01:11 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Pleased to see research I’ve been working on with @annemeng.bsky.social and @jackpaine.bsky.social on rebel regimes featured in the @nytimes.com Interpreter column this week. The piece does a nice job summarizing our paper’s implications for the challenges that may be ahead in #Syria. Link 👇

13.12.2024 13:31 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

$Violent Origins and Authoritarian Order: Divergent Trajectories after Successful Rebellions. Abstract Existing research demonstrates that many authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion are exceptionally durable. By contrast, conflict scholarship emphasizes the difficulty of reestablishing order after civil war. Using original data on every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900–2020, we demonstrate that rebel regimes follow divergent trajectories: the vast majority are either long-lived (20+ years) or short-lived (less than 5 years). The structure of the founding rebellion explains these divergent trajectories by shaping power- sharing dynamics in the new regime and the nature of conflict recurrence. Regimes founded by unified rebellions (single rebel group) become highly durable autocracies because members credibly share power within the same rebel group. By contrast, regimes founded by fractured rebellions (multiple rebel groups) are usually short-lived. Leaders must attempt to share power across armed rivals, many of whom defect and stage subsequent rebellions. Other rebellion characteristics, like social revolution and leftist ideology, cannot explain these differences.$

Violent Origins and Authoritarian Order: Divergent Trajectories after Successful Rebellions. Abstract Existing research demonstrates that many authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion are exceptionally durable. By contrast, conflict scholarship emphasizes the difficulty of reestablishing order after civil war. Using original data on every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900–2020, we demonstrate that rebel regimes follow divergent trajectories: the vast majority are either long-lived (20+ years) or short-lived (less than 5 years). The structure of the founding rebellion explains these divergent trajectories by shaping power- sharing dynamics in the new regime and the nature of conflict recurrence. Regimes founded by unified rebellions (single rebel group) become highly durable autocracies because members credibly share power within the same rebel group. By contrast, regimes founded by fractured rebellions (multiple rebel groups) are usually short-lived. Leaders must attempt to share power across armed rivals, many of whom defect and stage subsequent rebellions. Other rebellion characteristics, like social revolution and leftist ideology, cannot explain these differences.

Its become unfashionable/naive to say it, but democracy is still the 'least worst' way of protecting a revolution.

A very timely study from @kbclarke.bsky.social @annemeng.bsky.social @jackpaine.bsky.social analyses 84 times a regime has been overthrown since 1900...

osf.io/preprints/os...

13.12.2024 09:48 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

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