Killian Clarke

I received so much support in writing this book (the acknowledgments are long!), from colleagues, friends, and mentors at @princetonpolitics.bsky.social , @georgetown-sfs.bsky.social , @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social, @mes-crown.bsky.social and many other institutions. I can’t wait to pay it forward

Killian Clarke – Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed Book website for Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed by Killian Clarke

If this has piqued your interest, you can preorder the book from CUP’s website: tinyurl.com/ymz2etc4. Use offer code REOTY2025 for 20% off!

If you want to learn more about the book, check out the website: www.killianclarke.com/book

The book also speaks to our current authoritarian moment. Like other brands of reactionary politics, counterrevolution has been on the rise in recent years (following decades of decline). The book explains why, and connects these trends to broader global dynamics of democratic backsliding

But if they prioritize old regime appeasement, their coalitions may collapse and they may be overwhelmed by social unrest – which opens a path for counterrevolutionaries to return.

Check out, for example, unrest in Egypt in the year and a half before the coup (these are weekly protest counts):

The key here is how revolutionaries decide to govern. If they double down on their coalitions and mass base, rather than cozying up to soldiers and cronies from the former regime, they can maintain their revolutionary leverage and keep counterrevolution at bay

But even unarmed, democratic revolutions – like Egypt’s – often fare pretty well against counterrevolutions. More than two-thirds of them manage to survive

Counterrevolutions almost never succeed following violent revolutions (e.g., the Cuban revolution, the Chinese revolution) – the armies built up during guerilla struggle defend these governments from old regime forces.

This is something I have written about elsewhere, as well: tinyurl.com/mrypbrx2

In the aftermath of Egypt’s coup – and the broader failures of the 2011 Arab revolutions – a lot of people have argued that this outcome was unavoidable.

But actually, the data I collected reveal that over 80% of revolutionary governments either avoid or survive counterrevolutions

The book explains why some revolutions are reversed by counterrevolutions, whereas others establish lasting rule.

It’s one of the first books on counterrevolution – and grew out of my work on Egypt's 2013 counterrevolutionary coup, which tragically rolled back the 2011 revolution

There's a book launch at Georgetown on October 30, hosted by @mortaracenter.bsky.social and with my fantastic colleague @laiabalcells.bsky.social as discussant. If you’re in the DC area, please consider joining!

🚨🚨 I’m thrilled to share that my book, Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed, will be published this month with @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org in their Comparative Politics Series

Thanks to the @mes-crown.bsky.social for inviting me to write this piece about how oil wealth has empowered Saudi Arabia and the UAE to be the main spoilers of democratic change in the Middle East since 2011

Cool-looking new paper from @annemeng.bsky.social and @anthlittle.bsky.social. If it’s anything like their past work, it’s sure to be 🔥

Pleased to see research I’ve been working on with @annemeng.bsky.social and @jackpaine.bsky.social on rebel regimes featured in the @nytimes.com Interpreter column this week. The piece does a nice job summarizing our paper’s implications for the challenges that may be ahead in #Syria. Link 👇

Violent Origins and Authoritarian Order: Divergent Trajectories after Successful Rebellions. Abstract Existing research demonstrates that many authoritarian regimes originating in violent rebellion are exceptionally durable. By contrast, conflict scholarship emphasizes the difficulty of reestablishing order after civil war. Using original data on every regime founded by successful rebellion worldwide from 1900–2020, we demonstrate that rebel regimes follow divergent trajectories: the vast majority are either long-lived (20+ years) or short-lived (less than 5 years). The structure of the founding rebellion explains these divergent trajectories by shaping power- sharing dynamics in the new regime and the nature of conflict recurrence. Regimes founded by unified rebellions (single rebel group) become highly durable autocracies because members credibly share power within the same rebel group. By contrast, regimes founded by fractured rebellions (multiple rebel groups) are usually short-lived. Leaders must attempt to share power across armed rivals, many of whom defect and stage subsequent rebellions. Other rebellion characteristics, like social revolution and leftist ideology, cannot explain these differences.

Its become unfashionable/naive to say it, but democracy is still the 'least worst' way of protecting a revolution.

A very timely study from @kbclarke.bsky.social @annemeng.bsky.social @jackpaine.bsky.social analyses 84 times a regime has been overthrown since 1900...

osf.io/preprints/os...