Charlie Robertson

Not often there's a media report on Burundi .. so appreciate this by the FT and Andres Schipani

This is great piece, very clear and well structured

When the AI stock bubble crashes, it won’t necessitate QE type policies from the Fed as the bubble is built on equity on debt

🙏 I’m sure P&G would have cited other issues.

And to be fair, in a country Pakistan’s size there will be areas with millions of people with the skills to do manufacturing.

My point is that disappointment and problems are more likely than easy successes that last decades (Vietnam, Korea, etc)

Pakistan is not ready to industrialise, due to low female literacy.

P&G decision to stop manufacturing razors and other goods, is evidence of this.

See “The Time Travelling Economist”

Unfortunate for this government which has done an excellent job in bringing macro stability to Pakistan

Tariffs, trade and preferences: What if AGOA ends? Market access to the United States could further deteriorate for many African countries if the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is not renewed before its expiration on 30 September 2025.

AGOA expired last night, but most assume it will be renewed, and attached to some other legislation Congress passes

Doubt it'll show up in trade data if we get renewal in the next few weeks

Ex-AGOA, Kenya's total tariff increase half of China or India, but above Vietnam

unctad.org/news/tariffs...

Bernanke, 2008

US government looming shutdown

All important upcoming Argentina elections

Zimbabwe introduces a new currency to control inflation

Any other headlines you've read more times than you can count over your career?

Sounds like most of them haven't been to Saudi Arabia, and that includes the ones refusing to go

Some basically good inflation data out of Uganda, rising from 3.8% to 4.0% driven by tomatoes and pineapples from what I can see.

Good news for bullish Uganda bond investors .. and there's a lot of you about

www.ubos.org/wp-content/u...

US plans to extend Africa trade deal by a year, says Lesotho minister Lesotho's trade minister said on Wednesday that the U.S. plans to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which gives the continent preferential access to U.S. markets, by a year, after returning from a visit to Washington.

Lesotho called this first .. which is curious given they were hit hardest in Africa in the original April tariffs (since much reduced) www.reuters.com/world/africa...

Good news on AGOA, especially for SA, Kenya, Madagascar and DR Congo among the non-oil beneficiaries

Uncertain which piece of legislation it can be attached to .. or whether we face a temporary interruption until the US government shutdown is over (a month with Trump last time)

t.co/XrO0ljvBN0

A little economic history on how the US dollar rose, and then fell, before becoming the world’s dominant currency, by Barry Eichengreen

Today China remains far from from rivalling the US based on these factors

www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Morocco gets back the investment grade it lost in 2021. The other two agencies are still 1 notch lower, with stable outlooks on their Ba1 and BB+ sub-investment grade ratings

S&P thinks budget deficit will be 3% of GDP in 2026 and the C/A deficit will remain small

www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/r...

WSJ online led with Cook court cases twice in recent weeks (FT didn’t). Today WSJ leading with credit market .. FT UK with a story about Jaguar Land Rover

It’s a shame to see the FT ignore the first half of its name. First 9 pages of UK edition has no reference to an exchange rate or interest rate, or an equity or bond price.
The Argentine peso gets a mention on page 10.
Silver lining, FT only needs skim reading
WSJ now becoming required reading

Good timing

Interesting. Kindle version too?

Trump now highlighting the gasoline queues in his latest post on Ukraine bsky.app/profile/wart...

I’ve seen similar queues for fuel in Nigeria and Zimbabwe.

Not a comparison that Putin would appreciate

bsky.app/profile/mili...

The Trump administration doesn’t want Russian crude exports disrupted because he wants lower pump prices.

But apparently the US does not mind this pressure on Russia.

Testing NATO in Poland and Estonia may be Russia’s response

The 2021 paper on inelastic markets cited in the FT piece; the conclusion page has a quote or two to throw into market conversations

www.nber.org/system/files...

Investor Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: ‘The whole bull run is because of an influx of money’ The physicist and hedge fund manager on why the efficient markets theory is ‘all wrong’, economists with ‘mathematics envy’ — and what Camus can teach us about compromise

"Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is both baffled and frustrated by how economics has fallen in thrall to theorists — mathematical, social or political — and become bereft of the rigour of proper sciences, where real-world experiments and experiences actually matter."
Aren't we all?
www.ft.com/content/6f54...

t.co/PiDcEukYMS

Appeals Court Rejects Trump Request to Remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook The decision comes just hours before the central bank’s next meeting begins.

The judiciary is looking politicised in the US, with the appeals court backing Fed’s Cook vs Trump, but in a 2-1 decision

The 2 appointed by Biden backed Cook. Trump’s appointee backed the White House

It’s not the institutions, it’s the people

www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-.

Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID

The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

Thanks Moyeen .. never thought I’d be reading BoE 1982 reports 😀

Very interesting history here ..about the connection between supply and demand of money for mortgages.

The building society model kept the pace the of house prices connected to household earnings

(John Plender, FT big read)

Botswana Economy Slumps as Lab-Grown Diamonds Spur Market Crisis The rise of cheaper, lab-made gems is robbing the country of the revenue that’s made its people the richest on the sub-Saharan African mainland

Botswana.

A bit like Chile and Peru losing guano exports after German industrialists developed industrial fertilisers .. or Norway losing ice exports after the invention of the fridge

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Syria Ships First Oil Cargo in Years After Trump Ended Sanctions Syria exported 600,000 barrels of heavy crude in its first oil shipment in years, as the lifting of western sanctions brings relief to its war-ravaged economy.

Syria exported 600,000 barrels of heavy crude in its first oil shipment in years, as the lifting of western sanctions brings relief to its war-ravaged economy

Good read on the solar panel growth story in Africa .. echoing what we’ve seen in Pakistan.

In Pakistan the issue is so important it’s threatening the finances of the big electricity companies