Jon Prior

Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at one in five Texas bu...

“…it bears noting that by 2031, all growth in the U.S. population is expected to come from immigration. Hence, when officials set immigration policy, they may also be setting the speed limit for the economy.”

www.dallasfed.org/research/swe...

Options for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target interest rate The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating...

“…the upfront costs of either changing targets proactively or developing a contingency plan are small relative to the risk of having no plan.”

www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

The case for modernizing the FOMC’s operating target rate The time has come for the FOMC to prepare to target a different short-term interest rate. A repo rate would provide a more robust target than the current fed funds target.

“…the time has come for the FOMC to prepare to target a different short-term interest rate.”

www.dallasfed.org/news/speeche...

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.

Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance...

Powell answering questions about the potential economic impacts of AI in the Senate today. Read more from Dallas Fed research published this week on it www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaking before regional and community bankers here www.dallasfed.org/banking/even...

More firms using artificial intelligence Results from the Texas Business Outlook Surveys special questions in May show that 60 percent of firms report that they are currently using artificial intelligence, up notably from 38 percent a year a...

“Among firms impacted by higher tariffs, more than a quarter say they are planning to increase the use of automation and/or AI in response…”

www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Growth continues in Texas manufacturing sector, but outlooks worsen Texas factory activity continued to rise in April. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged. Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled cont...

Texas manufacturers sound off on tariffs www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Oil and gas activity edges higher; uncertainty rising, costs increase Activity in the oil and gas sector increased slightly in first quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

Dallas Fed Energy Survey: 55% of oilfield support service executives expect steel import tariffs to slightly lower customer demand dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future cou...

“The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.”

www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Texas manufacturing activity falters amid increased uncertainty Texas factory activity fell in February after rising notably in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

“A pullback was seen in Texas factory activity in February, with manufacturing executives noting mounting uncertainty, primarily regarding tariff policy.”

www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

Chapultepec conference Mexico City, 5-6 February 2025

Watch Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan’s speech on the future challenges for monetary policy here:

www.bis.org/events/25020...

Claudia Aguirre of Houston appointed chair of Dallas board; Gary Kelly of Dallas appointed deputy chair The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has appointed Claudia Aguirre of Houston as chair and Gary Kelly of Dallas as deputy chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas board of directors for 2025.

From earlier this week. A Hispanic woman was named chair of the Dallas Fed board for the first time www.dallasfed.org/news/release...

Solar, battery capacity saved the Texas grid last summer; an uncertain future awaits As ERCOT forecasts accelerated load growth due to anticipated data center construction and electrification trends, the current generation mix and market design should garner increased scrutiny.

A good look at ERCOT’s uncertain future. After relying on solar and utility-scale batteries to get through last summer, “…the ground is beginning to shift as load is poised for a long climb higher and expected generation installation gets pushed to its limits.”
www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...