Peter Morrow

A quote from me on the Canada tariffs:

“I think the Canadians are probably used to Trump’s negotiating approach by now and are just staying focused on the substance of the talks.”

Are there any benchmark estimates for how common this was during the first China-U.S. trade war?

Interesting article about Chinese exporters (not) paying for tariffs on shipments to the U.S.

the theory of optimal quibbling another in the “how I read books” series

backofmind.substack.com/p/the-theory...

Canada will no longer cover travel costs of experts it nominates to UN's climate science body | CBC News In a sudden and unexplained change from previous decades, the federal government has stopped covering the travel costs of Canadian experts volunteering for the next major global climate science assess...

This is very disappointing to see. I have some research funds to spare -- if any Canadian climate scientists lack travel funding for the IPCC, please contact me and I will try to help out.

www.cbc.ca/news/science...

What real resources will firms waste to get these favors?
Happy 50-year anniversaries:
Anne O Krueger (1974) The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society
www.jstor.org/stable/1808883
Richard A. Posner (1975), The Social Costs of Monopoly and Regulation
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Autoindustrie: Audi stoppt Export in die USA wegen Trump-Zöllen Das Zollregime von US-Präsident Donald Trump sorgt nicht nur an den Börsen für erdrutschartige Verluste. Als einer der ersten Großkonzerne zieht jetzt VW-Tochter Audi die Reißleine.

Audi has temporarily stopped delivering cars to the US. VW stopped delivery via train from MX and via ports. For now, cars already in the US are supposed to be sold. www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/a...

Canada's WTO complaint on the US auto/auto parts tariffs is now available:

docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages...

I'm seeing a huge spike in interest in tariffs from people who normally don't work in the economics of international trade. Here are a few useful things to know about them. (1/14)

An excellent point by @weisenthal.bsky.social: if the Trump tariff numbers are based on equilibrium outcomes whose determinants are difficult to agree upon, and
"reciprocal" (spoiler: they are not really reciprocal), what can foreign leaders offer if Trump is looking for a "deal"?

The election cycle certainly has something to do with it. It helps him to come across as serious.

U.S. voters probably also view Canada and Mexico differently so maybe Carney has the luxury of being allowed to be more upset. That's baseless speculation through.

It looks like some sleight of hand where they are using the retail price and not the import price.

There is a third path to acknowledge: President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. She has been far more restrained in her response (similar to Starmer) but is still forced to engage deeply (like Carney). So far, it has worked relative for Mexico but time will tell.

Trump's tariff formula confounds the world, punishes the poor Ridiculed for imposing trade tariffs on frozen islands largely inhabited by penguins, Donald Trump's formula for calculating those levies has a serious side: it is also hitting some of the world's poorest nations hardest.

"There is really no methodology there," Mary Lovely says. "It is like finding you have cancer and finding the medication is based on your weight divided by your age. The word 'reciprocal' is deeply misleading."

Meet non-preferential origin.

I thought I’d do a quick explainer on non-preferential rules that will be used to determine where the goods subject to Trump’s tariffs come from. This will be crucial in weeks to come given the substantial differences in tariffs (from 10 to +50%)

/1

Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Executive Summary Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the U.S. and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that pe...

This is what Trump's "economists" say about how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. Don[t be fooled by the equation. They commit countless crimes against economics. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... +

Chartbook 368 “I have only committed the mistake of believing in you, the Americans.” The day after Trump's "Liberation Day" in SE Asia. “I have only committed the mistake of believing in you, the Americans.”

adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

So spectacularly dumb.

Reciprocity and discrimination: When are tariffs useful remedies? The Trump administration has marked April 2 for its next big tariff announcement, one that it says is centered on countering unfair trade practices abroad and imposing reciprocal trade protection. The...

For those listening to this rant, those numbers are not tariffs. The European Union, e.g., has weighted average tariff rates of ~ 3% and arguably lower on US goods. So they are clearly including VATs and who knows what else? This false reciprocity is nonsense. For more:
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

This is a dark day for global development and general decency. Cambodia's PPP income per capita is less than 10% that of the US. Shame.

Trade was a powerful tool for poverty alleviation in these countries and we are making them poorer. This is embarrassing and I pray for any degree of forgiveness.

Congratulations!

The research group at the Workd Bank is doing an off-cycle hire for a trade economist worldbankgroup.csod.com/ux/ats/caree...

An amazing opportunity to work with one of the best.

@econuoft.bsky.social

Congratulations @aggraziano.bsky.social @christianvolpem.bsky.social @jrcarballo.bsky.social and Georg.

Analysis: Ontario’s electricity exports may not be the bargaining chip they were first thought to be Doug Ford has pulled back from threats to use energy as leverage and other provinces have opted not to pursue similar tactics

www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art...

Globalization Ph.D. Fellows

Are you a PhD student working on topics related to globalization? Come hang out with us at Dartmouth for a term as a Globalization Ph.D. Fellow! We're now accepting applications for the 2025-2026 academic year:

globalization.dartmouth.edu/programs/glo...

"Effective today, the Ontario government has applied a 25 per cent surcharge on all electricity exports to the United States as part of the province’s initial suite of retaliatory measures to U.S. tariffs on Canada"

news.ontario.ca/en/release/1...

Backgrounder here: news.ontario.ca/en/backgroun...

I feel like you should be able to show (or not) this directly using @johnmclaren.bsky.social 's Judge Bowker paper.

Doug Ford makes good on threat to slap 25 per cent export tax on electricity to the U.S. Raising an estimated $300,000 to $400,000 per day, the “tariff response charge” will be paid by utilities in New York, Michigan and Minnesota importing power from generators of electricity in Ontario.

Export controls were always going to hit the US harder than tariffs. Alberta following with oil really *would* be an escalation.