Dov H. Levin

Good thread- one quibble is that on many IR topics media frequently does this because that how US FP establishment also frequently frames win win IR issues (see endless articles about AI many on green tech etc.). If US elites were less fans of such framings as well...

Yes harder bargaining would 1. get probably a better deal (say 10% like UK) & 2. B/c Trump respects ability to impose costs on US public via stockmarket, bonds etc. he'd be somewhat more wary imo of trying in future.

Problem for EU is that 1. Trump would leave NATO tomorrow regardless of deal if in mood/saw chance to gain something so got little on that & 2. confirmed Trump/MAGA stereotype of EU as spineless. Both are a recipe for a round 2 in 1-2 years w/Trump coming for more Danegeld/leaving NATO regardless.

You should. "System works exactly as we think it does" is also useful information to for everyone to know (before I went up to tenure it would be very useful for me).

How the diamond industry lost its sparkle The explosion of lab-grown stones from China has shaken up the sector, leaving established players struggling for relevance

In other news, Chinese mass production of lab grown diamonds is lowering the price of the (effectively identical) natural diamonds, making diamond rings more affordable & shrinking a mining industry w/major environmental & conflict effects- what's not to like?
www.ft.com/content/2a8d...

A Vote for Freedom? The Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions on Regime Type - Dov H. Levin, 2019 What are the effects of partisan electoral interventions on the subsequent character of the regime in the targeted country? Partisan electoral interventions hav...

I don't think that's a good idea. I studied the effects of partisan electoral intervention on democracy (or how US helped stop Italian commie party from winning) & the effects of it on democracy are... not good journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The season of Western multilateral summitry (G7, NATO) may be over, but the diplomatic show must go on.
In this @ejir.bsky.social piece, I argue that summitry is a performance producing what I call the "social international," or the intl system of state persons

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

How you know you are a political scientist- you walk in Tokyo w/out knowing a word of Japanese & little about Japanese politics & come across guy speaking on stage- & within 3 seconds you correctly identify that he's a politician giving a campaign speech...

How you know you are a political scientist- you walk in Tokyo w/out knowing a word of Japanese & little about Japanese politics & come across guy speaking on stage- & within 3 seconds you correctly identify that he's a politician giving a campaign speech...

Thanks!

Smart analysis. Argues that US-Israeli strikes have probably delayed Iran's nuclear efforts by several years. Among other things, they show that Israeli intel has "compromised Iran's military and political leadership." Iran will need to invest in serious counter-intel before it can pursue the bomb.

Yes the attack delayed the nukes The twelve days war did set back significantly Iran’s nuclear programs- but not mainly due to its impacts on its nuclear sites

My new Substack post on effects of Israeli & US preventive strike on Iran on Iranian nuclear program now up. I argue that it did cause a significant 3-5 year delay in the Iranian nuclear program but effect of bombing of nuke sites is just one secondary component/1
open.substack.com/pub/dovhlevi...

Yes the attack delayed the nukes The twelve days war did set back significantly Iran’s nuclear programs- but not mainly due to its impacts on its nuclear sites

@dovlevin.bsky.social makes a very good argument (or series of arguments) for why Iran may now, in its weakened state, be deterred from—or incapable of—going for the bomb, even if it in fact retains the necessary enriched uranium, centrifuges, facilities, etc.

dovhlevin.substack.com/p/yes-the-at...

Indeed. Also- if I was a mid level Iranian official who wanted to keep my head & job in the midst of a wave of post war paranoia by a defeated regime in mood of hanging alleged or actual traitors I'm sure that I'll tell superiors 100% truth about it...

as finding a credible enforcement mechanism on US reneging & a mediator to reassure Iran of that. Trump WANTS so badly that Nobel peace prize, & Iran has very limited short term military options, so a peaceful deal on topic still available if the commitment problem is solved. /3

as most crucially Trump leaving JCPOA in 2018 rather then trying to first serious deal with its limitations. I think peaceful option still feasible post-attack & would be more effective- just need find way to deal with the severe commitment problem Trump's behavior & exit in 2018 created such /2

Thanks for comment! As noted in its intro focus in piece was merely if strike was effective- not whether it was best option for this goal (it wasn't). Yes multiple feasible past peaceful options for solving Iran's nuke program problem were needlessly missed by severe policy errors such /1

‪cc: @profpaulpoast.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social @chagaiweiss.bsky.social @johncarlbaker.bsky.social @pauljnadeau.bsky.social @yoniabramson.bsky.social @stephenwalt.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social ‪‪
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Katz is well known for making sometimes extreme verbal statement that go beyond any actual planned policies- so I'm not sure that would actually be Israeli policy towards Iran (although could be)

Yes these days its a rally around the Elephant/Donkey...

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social ‪ @nuclear-jim.bsky.social @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

This attack accordingly gives a significant opening to peaceful negotiations over Iran's nuclear program that can create a more permanent solution to it. Read it all in the post (and subscribe! its completely free)./4

damaged by the strike, to creating a plausible nuke delivery system, are all time consuming & expensive- and cause significant delays to any such nuclear breakout. The attack also increases chances of a time consuming review of this program before any such nuclear moves. /3

Rather the delay is because that this attack forces Iran, before making any post war run for a nuclear bomb, to first do extensive preparations for such a future strike. Those preparations, such as hunting Mossad spies in Iran, rebuilding Iran’s anti-aircraft and ballistic missile capabilities /2

You should see if they are still around & if yes what they are exactly selling these days 😀

Yup- I am getting nostalgic for those days in which when an agreement was reached between states a written text of it was created and then provided to the general public...

cc: @remylevin.bsky.social @judah-grunstein.bsky.social

cc: @dandrezner.bsky.social @dmsilverman.bsky.social ‪ @nuclear-jim.bsky.social @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

This attack accordingly gives a significant opening to peaceful negotiations over Iran's nuclear program that can create a more permanent solution to it. Read it all in the post (and subscribe! its completely free)./4

damaged by the strike, to creating a plausible nuke delivery system, are all time consuming & expensive- and cause significant delays to any such nuclear breakout. The attack also increases chances of a time consuming review of this program before any such nuclear moves. /3