Rodrigo Castro Cornejo

From our October National Poll @umlcpo.bsky.social

Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29%

18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58%

More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx

From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social

What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social

More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx

Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated

Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...

"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated"

this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment

Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval.

fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

Spanberger now at 15 and change. please feel free to read too much into it.

From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social

More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx

Welcome To The New Uprising Zohran Mamdani’s victory could be a turning point for Democrats — if the party finally learns from its past leaders’ betrayals.

I've spent my life advocating for a politics challenging oligarchy. It's been an unpleasant and difficult line of work, to say the least. So when I see the longtime opponents of this kind of politics suddenly appropriating it as their new "centrism," I'm happy.

A short 🧵...

basically every 2024 truism is dead. Trump did not build a lasting multiracial coalition or turn young men into committed Republicans. You don’t need to cave on trans rights to win. The pundits have nothing left to tell you.

The question for the midterms is:
where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points.

where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.

From our UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion NYC poll — broad support for Mamdani’s policies.

From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll

More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx

Today is election day.

**More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll**

52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities
Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42%
White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%

New CNN poll shows Trump falling to 28% with independents

Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February

More data from our new national poll 👇

depending on model, this suggests a shift between D+11 and D+30 seats, based solely on Abramowitz's model.

More data from our national poll:

** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll **

Presidential Approval = 42%
Independents = 30%
White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35%
18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44%

More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx

The new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll featured in @theguardian.com

Complete story here: t.co/Ug0MqHyca9

The new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll featured in @newsweek.com

The complete article here: t.co/VMkaXfLr6l

The results of our new national poll 👇🏽👇🏽

@umlcpo.bsky.social @johncluverius.bsky.social

New "How not to write a poll question" example just dropped. (Kids: Learn to not write horrible poll questions like this.)

UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll (@UMassLowell @UML_CPO) - Survey of NYC Likely Voters

Zohran Mandani 44%
Andrew Cuomo 25%

More info: uml.edu/polls

All the information about the call for papers, including the questionnaire and results report from the 2024 Mexican Election Study, is available here: tinyurl.com/MexicanElect...

*CALL FOR PAPERS*
Política y Gobierno (@depCIDE) & the Mexican Election Study (@ENEM_Mexico) invite submissions for a special issue dedicated to the analysis of public opinion in Mexico in the context of the 2024 presidential election.
Deadline for proposal submissions: Aug 30

Los invitamos a participar en esta convocatoria de Política y Gobierno (@depCIDE) y @ENEM_Mexico para participar en un volumen especial dedicado al estudio de la opinión pública en México en el contexto de la elección presidencial de 2024.

Los invitamos a analizar la base de datos del ENEM 2024 👇

¿Por qué partido/candidata votaron los votantes LGB en México en las pasadas elecciones presidenciales?

A propósito de #PrideMonth2025 aquí un texto con @chetoar sobre el voto LGB: redaccion.nexos.com.mx/el-voto-lgb-...

Con datos del Mexican Election Study / Estudio Nacional Electoral de México

In this @JoDemocracy article, unfortunately, we were not wrong in identifying the path of autocratization the country was on.

With the purge of the Judiciary, Mexico opens those gates and moves toward an authoritarian regime (competitive authoritarianism/electoral autocracy).