Gerald C Brown

China's motives aren't that uncertain if you just look at damn Chinese sources...

CSIS PONI's intro series have historically been quite good, and this follows in that tradition--worth a watch. Somehow large swathes of folks have lost the traditional Halperin/Schelling definition of arms control and adopted a narrow understanding of it that loses the actual aims and methods...

I don't understand how so many of the folks I know and talk to here clearly read a ton, but then still somehow post 10,000 times a day.

Least we still have whiskey

People have a tendency to not be comfortable with uncertainty, and analysts present their thoughts and analysis as fact vs the hyper low-confidence guesses they are. You need to be comfortable with uncertainty in this business, and anyone portraying analysis like this as fact is an amateur.

People would be wise to take all of the Zhang Youxia reporting with a grain of salt... There's a lot of speculation masquerading as authoritative analysis running around. Fact of the matter is very little is known besides the PLA's press releases, and Zhang and Liu are just the latest of many.

@jhu.edu just emailed out their alum magazine and gotta say, I was not exactly expecting the "ALUM ON ICE" cover story to be about... Ice skating.

Federal agent secured gun from Minn. man before fatal shooting, videos show A Post analysis of videos sheds light on the encounter that left 37-year-old Alex Pretti dead.

Look, sometimes law enforcement issues get misinterpreted by folks with no experience in that world, but this seems incredibly clear and unambiguous.... www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...

Come on Sharon, you think most people know about history? Even their own? Gotta lower the bar way, wayyyy down 🙃

I don't know who needs to hear this but please do not let the anon meme folks whose policy platforms include paying thousands of people to listen for enemy bombers over CONUS send you to the Ukrainian frontline.

"We, an anonymous group of "intellectuals" that popped up last year with no actual credential or authority short of a bunch of half-baked and nonsensical ideas along with horrible research and analytic craft, will send you to the Ukrainian frontlines so you too can be an old school researcher."

Ok these clowns are either just a hilariously inept group of anonymous wannabes with laughable ideas, or the funniest recruiting op for the Ukrainian foreign legion around. I don't even know where to start with this. defenseanalyses.org/fellowship/

a cartoon hand reaching out towards a purple object ALT: a cartoon hand reaching out towards a purple object

"I wish more people paid attention to China and critical national security issues"

Straight unfiltered stream of Dunning-Kruger consciousness

Come on kids, we need to train and hire thousands of civilians to know what Soviet bombers sound like from an era with different sensor technology, surely there's no way to just... spend thirty seconds logging onto domain tracking systems that integrate all those fancy sensors

These DARC clowns were running around spending their time complaining about how useless and weak ideas coming out of think tanks were. Now they've started writing their own ideas and they're... 100 times worse.
It's really easy to be a critic and complain, much harder to do. These are hard problems

The way that key symbols of liberal revolution have somehow been semi-appropriated by those who would happily stifle that cause is just baffling.

*my bias
My god I need coffee

Ok, but Jomini folks should at least read and understand, I don't know if I can honestly say the same about Sun Tzu! Though this may be the bias as a China analyst...

a man in a white shirt is standing in front of a wall with a sign that says showtime . ALT: a man in a white shirt is standing in front of a wall with a sign that says showtime .

Can't explain this or..... most other things in IR.

You mean if you use a sweeter liquor like bourbon right? 😉

I'll allow a tasteful amount of simple

The good ones are great, but you'll sure meet some characters...

Coffee liqueur over real espresso? 🤨

Sounds appropriate for 2025

Oh god. Remind me next time we get drinks...

Have I told you my story about this

I can't say I'm familiar, and I dont know if that's a good thing or not.

And I will be judging the answer Sharon.

What whiskey