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Pete Dodd

@petedodd24.bsky.social

Mathematical modelling for TB, infectious diseases, epi & pop health

2,123 Followers  |  670 Following  |  12 Posts  |  Joined: 21.08.2024  |  1.951

Latest posts by petedodd24.bsky.social on Bluesky

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A global analysis of patterns of tuberculosis exposure and transmission Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health concern and the leading infectious cause of mortality globally. The disease exhibits strong prevalence patterns by age and sex, but the implications of these...

Understanding patterns of #TB exposure and transmission is needed for targeted prevention strategies. In our latest pre-print, @petedodd24.bsky.social and I estimated the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from sex and age groups for 177 countries.

bit.ly/4nbV492

12.10.2025 12:51 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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New approaches for modelling tuberculosis transmission in low incidence settings at University of Bristol on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - New approaches for modelling tuberculosis transmission in low incidence settings at University of Bristol, listed on FindAPhD.com

PhD opportunity: New approaches to modelling TB transmission in low-incidence settings.
Supervised by Ellen Brooks-Pollock (Bristol), me (Bath) & Rajeka Lazarus (Bristol)
Apply: www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
Deadline 20 Oct
#PhD #Tuberculosis #Epidemiology #InfectiousDisease

27.09.2025 07:10 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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PhD Studentship in Respiratory Electronic Health Record Group: Analysing electronic health records to study pathways of care for people with tuberculosis at Imperial College London on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - PhD Studentship in Respiratory Electronic Health Record Group: Analysing electronic health records to study pathways of care for people with tuberculosis at Imperial College London, list...

#Imperial PhD studentship on #electronicpatientrecords analysis for UK #tuberculosis policy, with Onn Min Kon, Jenni Quint, Sharon Cox at #ukhsa and me. www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

19.09.2025 07:42 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
World maps of additional child tb & tb deaths

World maps of additional child tb & tb deaths

More projected impacts of cuts to international health aid on paediatric #tuberculosis urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=htt...

15.09.2025 12:40 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Global, regional, and national estimates of tuberculosis incidence averted by eliminating undernutrition in adults: a modelling study Background Current efforts to reduce global tuberculosis incidence have proved insufficient, highlighting that urgent action is needed to address underlying modifiable risk factors such as undernutrit...

So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we hypothetically "eliminated" undernutrition? In this preprint, we combined estimates from our new review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(doi.org/10.1101/2025...)

10.09.2025 04:11 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

@cfmcquaid.bsky.social @tbtakenseriously.bsky.social @jaseddon.bsky.social @petedodd24.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social #endtb

10.09.2025 04:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Union's TB Undernutrition working group is hosting a webinar with Dr Matthew Saunders.

πŸ“… 21 August at 2pm CET

Dr Saunders (@lshtm.bsky.social‬) will share findings from a new analysis that redefines the relationship between BMI and TB incidence.

πŸ“§ To join email membership@theunion.org.

07.08.2025 13:22 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Evaluating the health impact, health-system costs and cost-effectiveness of using TrueNat on stool samples compared to usual care for the diagnosis of paediatric tuberculosis in primary care settings:... The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends rapid molecular diagnostics to improve bacteriological confirmation of tuberculosis in children. TrueNat MTB, MTB Plus and MTB-RIF Dx assays (Molbio Diag...

Check out our new @PLOSGPH paper exploring the impact and cost-effectiveness of near point-of-care technology for diagnosing #tuberculosis in children in primary healthcare settings. Read it here: doi.org/10.1371/jour... From @petedodd24.bsky.social

27.06.2025 07:44 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis infection screening at first reception into English prisons: a model-based analysis The World Health Organization recommends systematic screening for tuberculosis in incarcerated populations, which are consistently at high risk of tub…

Meeting the health needs of incarcerated people can be costly. We found that targeted #tuberculosis infection screening at 1st reception in England could be cost saving.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

12.05.2025 13:04 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Treatment decision algorithms for tuberculosis screening and diagnosis in children below 5 years hospitalised with severe acute malnutrition: a cost-effectiveness analysis Children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are an important risk group for underdiagnosis and death from tuberculosis. In 2022, the World Health Or…

WHO recommends treatment decision scoring algorithms to help diagnose child #Tuberculosis. Thx to #Unitaid, our TB-Speed team evaluated them to be very cost-effective for children with severe acute malnutrition in UGA & ZAM

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

25.04.2025 06:47 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Thinking fast and slow: the urgency of crisis response must not lead us to overlook chronic needs such as tuberculosis The number of people facing displacement due to humanitarian crises worldwide is increasing rapidly and is likely to continue. An average 10% year-on-year increase in the last 5 years resulted in 68.3...

In 2024, 68 million people were internally displaced by humanitarian crises, & are at increased risk of TB, the world's biggest infectious disease killer. We urgently need estimates to identify the scale of this problem & drive our response. We provide initial numbers here gh.bmj.com/content/10/3...

26.03.2025 10:02 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
Tuberculosis treatment

Tuberculosis treatment

Yes, #Tuberculosis (TB) is curable!

TB is treated with antibiotics taken daily for 4–6 months. ⚠️ Stopping treatment early can lead to drug-resistant TB.

Funding cuts & rising drug resistance put the most vulnerable at risk. Sustained support is crucial to #EndTB πŸ‘‰ bit.ly/4ilkK1h #WorldTBDay

24.03.2025 08:47 β€” πŸ‘ 512    πŸ” 155    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 9
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Quantifying potential immortal time bias in observational studies in acute severe infection We developed a tool to quantify the impact of misallocation of person time, then used it to demonstrate that published observational studies have likely ov

NEW PAPER with @tom-parks.bsky.social and @petedodd24.bsky.social in @ofidjournal.bsky.social

Our tool can estimate extent to which misallocation of person time will result in spurious or optimistic estimates of intervention effects

We find benefits of IVIG in STSS have likely been exaggerated

18.03.2025 18:42 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Tuberculosis Impact Counter | Tracking TB Funding Impact Tracking the impact of TB funding via USAID

A tracker estimating TB deaths from USAID funding discontinuation #IDsky #TBsky tb.impactcounter.com

10.03.2025 09:07 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
PEPFAR Impact Tracker Track the impact of PEPFAR funding halt

A tracker estimating deaths from freezing PEPFAR pepfar.impactcounter.com #HIVsky #TBsky #IDsky

05.03.2025 15:11 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 2

Caps lock as control fixed me

14.02.2025 18:27 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | I Shudder to Imagine Kennedy Running Our Health Agencies. We have to go toe-to-toe with this administration and resist its attacks on public health.

Do not accept defeat. We don’t have time for despair.

Read this important piece from one of my heroes @gregggonsalves.bsky.social

We have work to do!

#publichealth #medsky #emedsky #episky #resist #lgbtqSTEM #academicsky

14.02.2025 12:42 β€” πŸ‘ 15    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Great article showing impact on Tuberculosis of funding freeze

"Stopping thisβ€”literally overnightβ€”means that these strains have the potential to spread not just abroad but here in the US."

#EndTB #keepthelightson #11KEveryDay #RestoreTBFunding

14.02.2025 17:26 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Sex Differences in the Risk of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Population-Based Immunoreactivity Surveys Background: Tuberculosis (TB) killed 1Β·25 million people globally in 2023. Men have a 1Β·7-fold higher TB incidence than women, but it is not known to what exten

New preprint (with all pre-print caveats!) tinyurl.com/589ffhu4 on Mtb infection risk by sex & age.
Men are at higher risk of #tuberculosis v women- but unclear how much driven by higher infection vs progression to disease. We meta-analysed Mtb immunoreactivity surveys to find out more🧡 #tbsky

10.01.2025 08:19 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3
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NEW PREPRINT!

Enjoyed working with @tom-parks.bsky.social and @petedodd24.bsky.social on immortal time bias

In its simplest form, ITB results from misallocation of person time, i.e. pre treatment time in intervention group being counted as time on treatment

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

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10.01.2025 09:28 β€” πŸ‘ 55    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 10    πŸ“Œ 2

This is the levofloxacin TPT Xmas double issue #TBsky

19.12.2024 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Levofloxacin Preventive Treatment in Children Exposed to MDR Tuberculosis | NEJM Worldwide, approximately 2 million children younger than 15 years of age are infected with multidrug-resistant (MDR) Mycobacterium tuberculosis, with MDR tuberculosis developing in approximately 30...

Here is the article and link (making sure it gets embedded): doi.org/10.1056/nejm...

#idsky #tbsky

19.12.2024 14:00 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Effect of integrating paediatric tuberculosis services into child healthcare services on case detection in Africa: the INPUT stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial Introduction Paediatric tuberculosis (TB) underdiagnosis is a critical concern. The INPUT stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial assessed the impact of integrating child TB services into child healthc...

Newly out RCT data on integration of child TB services into routine care in KEN/CMR gh.bmj.com/content/9/12... #TBsky & our economic evaluation of it: gh.bmj.com/content/9/12...

19.12.2024 13:24 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Global burden of tuberculous meningitis in children aged 0–14 years in 2019: a mathematical modelling study Tuberculous meningitis is fatal if untreated and can lead to lifelong neurological sequelae. However, to our knowledge, there are no data on the numbe…

Happy to have been part of the mammoth team effort reviewing and modelling the burden of TBM in children #TBsky www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

19.12.2024 13:20 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

#TBsky

16.12.2024 21:12 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

#TBsky

16.12.2024 21:12 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Today WHO released Guidance on evidence generation (GEG) on new regimens for #TB treatment β€” a first-of-its-kind document that advises researchers, developers, funders, and other stakeholders about how evidence should be generated to optimally inform WHO guideline development.

16.12.2024 15:20 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
Cover of The Lancet's Nov 30, 2024 issue. Quote on cover reads "Scientific advances alone are insufficient to end HIV as a public health threat: it is a political and financial choice."

Cover of The Lancet's Nov 30, 2024 issue. Quote on cover reads "Scientific advances alone are insufficient to end HIV as a public health threat: it is a political and financial choice."

Despite encouraging progress in the global #HIV effort, the Sustainable Development Goal of ending HIV as a public health threat by 2030 is not on track.

Ahead of #WorldAIDSDay, our latest Editorial explores the triumphs and threats of HIV in 2024.

Read this & more in our new issue: bit.ly/4fL2ugz

29.11.2024 12:37 β€” πŸ‘ 36    πŸ” 29    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 4

Read this amazing preprint today: ~2% (156M) of the world recently infected with #tb.

Between 4.9%~7.7% have viable infection.

But emphasises we need +++ data on Mtb infection
@aschwalbc.bsky.social @kchorton.bsky.social @petedodd24.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @hannahrickman.bsky.social

18.11.2024 15:59 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

@petedodd24 is following 20 prominent accounts