Tim Culpan

TSMC just forecast full-year revenue will climb 30%, that's an upgrade to its previous mid-20s figure.
It's all about AI.
Overseas expansion continues, with management looking to speed up its ramp up at Arizona, TSMC told investors Thursday.

TSMC just posted revenue & operating profit which beat guidance.
What's impressive is that gross margin came in near top of guidance, despite a strengthening Taiwan dollar. (1% stronger TWD = 0.4% weaker gross margin).
GM was hit by about 280bps due to forex, management told investors Thursday.

✅ @tculpan.bsky.social has been verified by @bsky.app.

Start Your Own Smartphone Company for $1,000 Walk through a metal gate, sidestep a pile of boxes, take an elevator to a floor of serviced offices and enter the latest battleground for Samsung Electronics Co.

Note to Donald Trump
It really doesn’t take much.

Just sayin’

Start Your Own Smartphone Company for $1,000
By @tculpan (10 years ago)

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Earthquake alert in English & Mandarin

Just in:
Taiwan was just hit by a big quake.
This alert, sent by phone, arrived 30-45sec before the tremor hit northern Taiwan.
Our alert system really worked.

Never forget that there’s “nothing to remember” about this day

OMG. Congrats.
CCRT is one of the most brutal things that can be done to the human body. And then surgery to boot!
All the best in reclaiming control of your life in all its glory.

Mango Cancer

You should not be surprised when TSMC trims its full-year sector forecast this Thursday at its 1Q earnings event.

culpium.com

My schadenfreude for the day is that Bitcoin's down basically as much as the NASDAQ, and if Bitcoin did what its fans said it did it would be the opposite.

Defective INSE Cordless Vacuums models S6P Pro and S6T

#WARNING: @cpsc.gov warns consumers to immediately stop using INSE Cordless Stick Vacuums models S6P Pro and S6T due to fire and burn hazards; risk of serious injury and death; sold on amazon.com.

Full warning: cpsc.gov/Warnings/202...

Trump’s new income tax policy:

How much you spent / How much your earned

See! Policy is easy.

Thomas Friedman saw only what Beijing wanted him to see.

It wasn’t the future.

When apparent agents of the state do not identify themselves and do not declare the authority by which they are acting—“This is the XYZ police and you are under arrest”—they are, by definition, secret police.

Countries that have found a middle ground here have moved on because the issue is otherwise so completely toxic and an enormous time suck.

How a TSMC Tax Would be a FAFO Move for the US [Opinion] The US could impose a tax on Taiwanese chips. But it would hurt the very companies Trump used to bolster his tech credentials.

The US-Taiwan semiconductor relationship has changed drastically.

I was surprised by what the data showed me.

The implications for the US are profound

www.culpium.com/p/how-a-tsmc...

How a TSMC Tax Would be a FAFO Move for the US [Opinion] The US could impose a tax on Taiwanese chips. But it would hurt the very companies Trump used to bolster his tech credentials.

"The US doesn’t have the capacity to manufacture anywhere near a similar volume of equivalent devices. It would take months, if not years, to build the factories, spin up the tools, and then go through the qualification process", @tculpan.bsky.social writes.

To a dog,
the carrot & the stick
have opposite roles.

There’s a better way to look at Deepseek

www.culpium.com/p/deepseek-i...

Veterans Detained Over Paramilitary Plot to Sabotage Government in Wartime | New Bloom Magazine A former lieutenant general, Kao An-kuo, and five other associates were indicted earlier this month for efforts to form a paramilitary organization that would act to sabotage the Taiwanese government…

Taiwan’s KMT vehemently opposes abolishing the death penalty. A matter of principle, which I understand but don’t agree with.

I wonder whether the party vehemently opposes employing it for treason 🙄

newbloommag.net/2025/01/27/r...

Huh? What?
Getting heaps of LinkedIn connection requests from accounts like this recently.
Microsoft can’t seem to contain the spread.

Culpium, by Tim Culpan | Substack Culpium: noun [U] — a cure for lack of knowledge, understanding or clarity. *taken by those seeking to improve comprehension of technology, semiconductors, and supply chains especially in Asia. *See y...

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Tim Culpan’s Position | Substack Analysis-based opinion & exclusive news. No fluff or padding. My beat is technology. This is what independent journalism looks like. Click to read Tim Culpan’s Position, a Substack publication.

I’ll soon be publishing my last piece for the year.

It’s a surprising take on the most important tech stories of the year.

Definitely on-brand for those who know me, but counterintuitive.

Sign up now to make sure it lands in your inbox

open.substack.com/pub/timculpan

The Value of Intel's Board in Two Charts [Opinion] With CEO Pat Gelsinger gone, everyone's taking shots at Intel's board. Here are the only numbers that matter

Oh, Intel.

open.substack.com/pub/timculpa...

China's Chip Self-Sufficiency in One Chart [Opinion] It's true that the nation has become more adept at making gear which is used to make chips. But this chart puts that development in context

China has made great strides in chipmaking equipment.

Yet the gap to self-sufficiency is widening. Here’s why.

open.substack.com/pub/timculpa...

South Korea’s president declares emergency martial law While declaring the martial law, President Yoon accused opposition of anti-state activities.

Martial Law declared by South Korea’s President

aje.io/xidzxp

Gelsinger Was it. Intel Has no Plan B [Opinion] His strategy was a Hail Mary, but Pat’s last big act has Intel repeating AMD’s mistake of 15 years ago.

Gelsinger’s CHIPS Act deal put it down a dangerous path.
Now he’s out, and then what ..

open.substack.com/pub/timculpa...

Time to play another game of Rumor Mill bingo.

Trump Tariffs Will Help Big Business, Hurt Small. Here's How [Opinion] Big businesses have the heft and reach to switch up their supply chains. Mom-and-pop shops will be the pawns in this game of geopolitical chicken

Tariffs aren’t always a bad idea.

In this case they are.

I give two solid examples to illustrate the point.

open.substack.com/pub/timculpa...