Krishna Narsu

Used these minutes projections to get projected minutes-weighted age for each team. This would make the Clippers the oldest team of all time by over a full year.

Yeah I just fixed that. I forgot to update the predictive LEBRON sheet with the correct minutes but fixed it for the team ratings.

Also I made that exact mistake earlier so I know I fixed it lol.

No I'm using the minutes projections for the 25-26 season. I just didn't include the rookies that didn't have a predictive LEBRON. But they are included in the team ratings. Some of the columns in the predictive LEBRON are messed up tho- I forgot to include the correct Team for this year.

Predictive LEBRON

First pass at Predictive LEBRON for this upcoming season as well as team ratings based on predictive LEBRON. Uses @kpelton.bsky.social
minute projections. Will probably update with a better model at some point so very much a first pass. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

lot of whocare for me here, but one thing they could do to fix this GIVE US GROUP CHATS YOU MFERS

Massive Expansion of Play-by-Play and Stats on Pro Football Reference | Sports-Reference.com Massive Expansion of Play-by-Play and Stats on Pro Football Reference

Check it out: www.sports-reference.com/blog/2025/08...

For those keeping track at home:

- Pelicans trade their top-4 protected Pacers 2026 pick for #23 pick in 2025 before the end of the Finals when they could have simply waited
- Pelicans trade that #23 pick and their unprotected 2026 pick for the 13th pick in the 2025 draft

Masterclass in stupidity

Number of ball screens that SGA & Jalen Williams set for each other...

Game 1: 1
Game 2: 2
Game 3: 0
Game 4: 9 (including 7 in the 4th quarter)

The 9 is tied for the most screens they've set for each other in their 3 years together.

via Second Spectrum

Has @thinkingbasketball.bsky.social ever been on
@zachlowenba.bsky.social podcast? Or the reverse. If not, idk how that hasn't happened yet

🚨 New App Alert 🚨
Predicting playoff series outcomes using various publicly available advanced metrics like LEBRON, EPM, DARKO etc.
Predictions are available for all remaining series.
Developed with @knarsu3.bsky.social
Check it out!!

shiny.sradjoker.cc/NBA-Playoff-...

Of the 10 most improbable comebacks of the playoffs in the play by play era (since 1997), the 2025 Indiana Pacers have THREE of them.

#4 (tonight), #5 (against the Cavs), and #7 (against the Bucks)

➡️ Teams getting into their first action quicker in the playoffs than regular season
⬅️ Teams getting into their first action slower in the playoffs than regular season
⬆️ Pressuring more on defense in the Playoffs
⬇️ Pressuring less on defense in the Playoffs

Indiana is really taking advantage of some low hanging fruit in the last 2 playoffs- pressure the opposing ball-handler to force them to take more time to get into their actions & get into your own actions sooner!

(Borrowing @owenphillips.bsky.social F5 theme, data via second spectrum)

Warriors continue to be doubly befuddled by the Rockets’ double-big zone defense Warriors get trampled in Game 5 with the series shifting back to the Bay.

🚨NEW WORDS🚨

Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups have outscored the Warriors by a total of 31 points in 54 minutes.

In those minutes, the Warriors have scored only 0.85 points per possession.

Musings on the Dubs' confusion vs. the double-big zone:

www.goldenstateofmind.com/2025/4/30/24...

The Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs.

The Luka trade was never about this year. Lakers are an incomplete and unbalanced roster, but if that’s the cost for getting a perennial MVP candidate in his prime, you take that hit. Their play after the trade probably got hopes too high because they were always going to have playoff weak spots.

Krishna Narsu on the stats behind the Sixers' season Krishna Narsu of Bball Index stops by to dive into alarming numbers about the Sixers' season.

New episode of The Feed To Embiid out this morning!

The great @knarsu3.bsky.social of @bball-index.bsky.social on stats that stood out from the Sixers’ season, plus some playoff talk.

Non-Apple users: on.soundcloud.com/YXM6s3ZYxL1n...

Apple users: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Two games is a small sample size, especially against a single opponent, as in the playoffs. But here are some team notes:
- OKC completely shutting down MEM on 3s and transition. Actually everything.
- HOU still best rebounding team
- MIL bad from 3 thus far. Their 3pt shot quality has been poor.

The Playoffs Are Here! Game 1 Takeaways With Howard Beck and Series Breakdowns With Steve Jones Jr. The Zach Lowe Show · Episode

New Zach Lowe Show! Breaking down all 8 playoff series w/ @howardbeck.bsky.social and @stevejones20.bsky.social:

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4IX6...

YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVnm...

Fanduel has this at implied probability of 59.65% (vig removed) and Draftkings at 54.90% implied probability so the predict_series_ridge model is pretty spot on here lol.

🚨 New App Alert 🚨
Predicting playoff series outcomes using various publicly available advanced metrics like LEBRON, EPM, DARKO etc.
Predictions available for all combinations of 16 playoff teams.
Developed with @knarsu3.bsky.social
Check it out!!
🔗 shiny.sradjoker.cc/NBA-Playoff-...

The accuracy on the testing data set for the predict_series_ridge model was 74% which is ok but I think can be better (the model was kinda put together too quickly). Accuracy on predicting the exact series score was 20.6% which is tough to do.

My personal preference among all the models is the predict_series_ridge model. It includes all of DARKO, predictive EPM and LEBRON and it does not rely on exact minutes projections (which is where OKC gets underrated cause the minute projections have Chet at 16 mpg).

Playoff probabilities for Indiana vs Milwaukee which can be found in this app from @sradjoker.cc
shiny.sradjoker.cc/NBA-Playoff-... The minutes projections assume 0 minutes for Dame. A description for all the models is included in the app.

Some interesting data on lineups with 0, 1, or 2 centers on the court this season.

Graohic from the F5, see more on double bigs here: open.substack.com/pub/thef5/p/...

Some nutty games on the last day of the regular season:

stats.inpredictable.com/nba/preCap.php

On the last You Know Ball pod, @trillbrodude.bsky.social was talking about the calculator rats loving Jokic more than SGA. So @sradjoker.cc put together a good meme to explain the MVP race (LEBRON and EPM have SGA ahead).

I'm pretty sure I was on the Harden side lol