@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
In the context of the rest of the season, Castle's big night last night was easily his best of the year and still you see the bumpy ups and downs of player performance.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
But you can look up his chart here
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
When a team basically wouldn't have won without a player's performance - we call that a threshold win. And We added it to our MCBB gamelogs.
Here is Ebuka Okorie of Stanford, for example, who has 5 threshold W, 0 threshold Ls - best in the Power 5+BE
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-player-...
Yeah, I should look at percentage of games that are good - that tends to be more stable. And they are getting those performances recently.
06.02.2026 20:12 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
This has to be a fun ride for the Hornets. Their starting lineup is all positive at this point.
Miller has been on a tear for 3 weeks, Knueppel has been good since mid-December.
Dylan Harper and VJ Edgecombe are having what I'd call a typical rookie up-and-down season. Typical for a good rookie, that is.
Knueppel showed an early flat period, then he took off.
Flagg is a little in-between, taking off recently, but still showing ups/downs.
I'm heading to Connecticut in April for the Connecticut Sports Analytics Symposium. Giving a talk with the boring title of
Why division of (micro)credit helps in sports
The talk should be better than the title.
statds.org/events/csas2...
Up to the point of the trade, Jonathan Kuminga
- Has never posted a positive season in Net Pts
- His offense this year was at its worst
- He is at #384 (of 391) in Passing
I have to think he will be better where he feels appreciated. But still not good.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...
NBA teams and how many times different players led their team in Net Pts - in Wins only.
- OKC has 40 wins, SGA has led them in 24 of them.
- Naz Reid has led MIN the most in wins, even though Ant has far better overall performance
The UConn men won last night behind Silas DeMary Jr.'s +6.9 total net pts. The Huskies have had 9 different players lead them in 22 wins.
Among BPI Top 25 teams, though, Kentucky has had 8 different net pts leaders in their 15 wins.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
Go to the leaders page and type in your husky team into the filter.
04.02.2026 01:11 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Darryn Peterson was clutch last night for KU, posting +4.2 net points when the game was within 5 with 5 min left, best on the team.
There isn't a lot of clutch time in college. Peterson only has 18 poss all year and half were last night.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-box?id=...
Syracuse plays UNC tonight and you can get a statistical preview from our Net Pts metrics.
For example, here are the ACC's top transition players
- Cuse has Donnie Freeman in the top 10
- UNC has Trimble and Wilson
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
College Basketball Net Points
This is the metric we use for player valuation, available at a game or season level, adjusted for schedule or not, with breakdowns of why.
For a versatile leaderboard, showing top players across a lot of categories, start here:
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
College Basketball Net Points
This is the metric we use for player valuation, available at a game or season level, adjusted for schedule or not, with breakdowns of why.
For a scoreboard, you can start here:
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
Following up again on the story of how Kawhi started taking more 3s on 12/20 (www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...)
- He was at +40 net pts over 17 games, then +108 in next 18 Gs
- He was at +10 in net pts on 3s, +37 since. The 27 pt improvement is almost the whole O increase. Rest is on D
Jarrett Allen's huge night last night - his best of the year. But he did have a great one back on 11/5 against Philly, too. He had 5 games of at least 8 net points last year. This was his second this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
One year ago, Luka Doncic was traded for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a future first.
Since then
- Luka Doncic was 13.6 wins above replacement
- AD has 1.6
- Christie has 2.0
SAC traded Keon Ellis over the weekend. He was one of their most valued assets, but has played poorly this year. He was valued because his prior work was good enough to project a good future, but metrics are uncertain:
- EPM expected -1.5
- LEBRON -0.5
- DARKO +0.4
- xRAPM +1.3
It's about what expectations were set. We were comparing to expectations as of October, which had those guys out.
Doesn't mean we shouldn't do it the other way, though.
This column says how the LAC coaching staff finally got through to Kawhi to take more 3s on 12/20.
In the graphic here, you can see a lot more green, meaning positive net pts, since then. You can *change* performance... Kinda suggests CP wasn't the (whole) problem.
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
These are the teams most unhealthy and least unhealthy in terms of losses added due to their own injuries and those of opponents they played.
>> Assumed Haliburton, Lillard, and Tatum out for the year, but not Kyrie
Cooper Flagg's production at the rim last night was soooo much better than it was in any game all year.
It was actually the second best game at the rim across the league all year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Flagg/Knueppel face-off ends with Charlotte winning by 2 and Knueppel beating Flagg by +0.7.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Worst game of the season for LeBron last night.
He had one worse game last year, but none other so bad in our ESPN games.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Breaking down the Clippers' turnaround to the players since Chris Paul's release.
- Collins turned it around the most
- Kawhi has played more and better defensively
- Broad general improvement on D
Take a look at Nembhard's game log here. Definite improvement in January, the Miami game being a standout.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Top clutch players
- As bad as Utah has been on D (last), Keyonte George has been good in clutch D (and clutch O)
- Edgecombe's clutch skills have been noted for PHI. Joel Embiid has great clutch D numbers, but lousy O.
- LeBron and Cooper Flagg both up there
Four Factors Accounting: It's like the Four Factors, but it puts things in terms of Net Pts so that it adds up to something real.
Charlotte Hornets example. They are 5th in OREBs, 1st in Putback production. That helps when not good on 2s, FTs.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
Something I see every so often is a citation that Team A is, say, 10 pts better on offense with Player X than without.
1. That has a lot of noise
2. The most modest interpretation of this is that Player X's value is +2 (10 divided by 5 players). That's a lot.
Be careful when you see it used
