@deanolytics.bsky.social
Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.
The UConn men won last night behind Silas DeMary Jr.'s +6.9 total net pts. The Huskies have had 9 different players lead them in 22 wins.
Among BPI Top 25 teams, though, Kentucky has had 8 different net pts leaders in their 15 wins.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
Go to the leaders page and type in your husky team into the filter.
04.02.2026 01:11 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Darryn Peterson was clutch last night for KU, posting +4.2 net points when the game was within 5 with 5 min left, best on the team.
There isn't a lot of clutch time in college. Peterson only has 18 poss all year and half were last night.
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-box?id=...
Syracuse plays UNC tonight and you can get a statistical preview from our Net Pts metrics.
For example, here are the ACC's top transition players
- Cuse has Donnie Freeman in the top 10
- UNC has Trimble and Wilson
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
College Basketball Net Points
This is the metric we use for player valuation, available at a game or season level, adjusted for schedule or not, with breakdowns of why.
For a versatile leaderboard, showing top players across a lot of categories, start here:
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-award-l...
College Basketball Net Points
This is the metric we use for player valuation, available at a game or season level, adjusted for schedule or not, with breakdowns of why.
For a scoreboard, you can start here:
espnanalytics.com/mcbb-daily-s...
Following up again on the story of how Kawhi started taking more 3s on 12/20 (www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...)
- He was at +40 net pts over 17 games, then +108 in next 18 Gs
- He was at +10 in net pts on 3s, +37 since. The 27 pt improvement is almost the whole O increase. Rest is on D
Jarrett Allen's huge night last night - his best of the year. But he did have a great one back on 11/5 against Philly, too. He had 5 games of at least 8 net points last year. This was his second this year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
One year ago, Luka Doncic was traded for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a future first.
Since then
- Luka Doncic was 13.6 wins above replacement
- AD has 1.6
- Christie has 2.0
SAC traded Keon Ellis over the weekend. He was one of their most valued assets, but has played poorly this year. He was valued because his prior work was good enough to project a good future, but metrics are uncertain:
- EPM expected -1.5
- LEBRON -0.5
- DARKO +0.4
- xRAPM +1.3
It's about what expectations were set. We were comparing to expectations as of October, which had those guys out.
Doesn't mean we shouldn't do it the other way, though.
This column says how the LAC coaching staff finally got through to Kawhi to take more 3s on 12/20.
In the graphic here, you can see a lot more green, meaning positive net pts, since then. You can *change* performance... Kinda suggests CP wasn't the (whole) problem.
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...
These are the teams most unhealthy and least unhealthy in terms of losses added due to their own injuries and those of opponents they played.
>> Assumed Haliburton, Lillard, and Tatum out for the year, but not Kyrie
Cooper Flagg's production at the rim last night was soooo much better than it was in any game all year.
It was actually the second best game at the rim across the league all year.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Flagg/Knueppel face-off ends with Charlotte winning by 2 and Knueppel beating Flagg by +0.7.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Worst game of the season for LeBron last night.
He had one worse game last year, but none other so bad in our ESPN games.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Breaking down the Clippers' turnaround to the players since Chris Paul's release.
- Collins turned it around the most
- Kawhi has played more and better defensively
- Broad general improvement on D
Take a look at Nembhard's game log here. Definite improvement in January, the Miami game being a standout.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...
Top clutch players
- As bad as Utah has been on D (last), Keyonte George has been good in clutch D (and clutch O)
- Edgecombe's clutch skills have been noted for PHI. Joel Embiid has great clutch D numbers, but lousy O.
- LeBron and Cooper Flagg both up there
Four Factors Accounting: It's like the Four Factors, but it puts things in terms of Net Pts so that it adds up to something real.
Charlotte Hornets example. They are 5th in OREBs, 1st in Putback production. That helps when not good on 2s, FTs.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA
Something I see every so often is a citation that Team A is, say, 10 pts better on offense with Player X than without.
1. That has a lot of noise
2. The most modest interpretation of this is that Player X's value is +2 (10 divided by 5 players). That's a lot.
Be careful when you see it used
Sophomore update:
- Ajay Mitchell is top 10 in NBA in fewest points to matchup/100 poss and eFG% allowed
- Holland, Ighodaro have really good D numbers, too
- Ware's recent bad games don't seem like a trend yet
- Castle has highest usage of the group
Rookie update:
- Knueppel has the most games with +1 net pts, is using 22% of possessions, both good signs
- Caleb Love's 24% possession use and -0.8 O net pts/G is a mixed signal
- Recent risers: Knueppel, Kalkbrenner, CMB, Coward
- Ace Bailey has highlights, but still near bottom
Kobe Bryant scored 81 points and had +25.0 total Net Pts on this date in 2006. The 81 ranks 2nd all-time for a game.
The +25.0 has been surpassed by 3 players in the last 8 seasons
- Harden +26.9 on 11/30/19, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
- Jokic +26.0, 10/20/18
- Luka +25.2, 1/26/24
Giannis shot 8/11 last night, yet net points had him negative, -0.9 on O, -1.4 total. An average player going 8/11 has +4.1 and +4.4, resp. Why was Giannis' O worse?
- FT: he was 3/6, avg player at 74%, 2.3/3.2
- 3s: he was 0/0, others 1.8/2.9
- TO: He had 3, others 1.7
Hey @deanolytics.bsky.social 20 years ago today, Ray Allen scored 42 points to power the Seattle SuperSonics to a 152-149 double-overtime win over the Suns, the highest-scoring game in the league that season.
(I coincidentally just read the chapter about your Sonics tenure yesterday.)
How the Warriors' playoff chances have evolved.
Now at their lowest point of the year
Using BPI, the Warriors had an 86% chance at the playoffs as of Jan 18.
With Jimmy Butler out and last night's loss, their chances dropped to 68%.
www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/vi...
In terms of Luka's 30-pt triple doubles, yesterday's was pretty average. He added +9.6 net pts and his average is +8.2.
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...
Fooled by highlights 2: Highlights captured Julian Champagnie and Luka's good first quarters. Those were indeed the best offensive Qs yesterday, but...
Marcus Smart added D for the best overall Q when the Lakers outscored Nuggs by 10 in Q4. Marcus Smart was worth +7.7 of those.
