Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU)

HAROON BHORAT: Getting the numbers right on the informal economy It is wrong to assume that what is true at the local level must translate to a 1:1 relationship at national level

HAROON BHORAT (@haroonbhorat.bsky.social, our colleague at @dpru-uct.bsky.social): Getting the numbers right on the informal economy

www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2...

Very grateful to be in Senegal 🇸🇳 for the first time this week for @j-pal.bsky.social’s Summer School on advanced randomised evaluation design. Many thanks to J-PAL, CESAG, @afd-france.bsky.social, and others for hosting me!

Powerful insights to kick off the WIDER Development Conference!

3 key takeaways that resonated deeply:

☂️ Social protection is foundational
💼 Employment is the engine of development
💡 We need transformative thinking

go.unu.edu/1bvUf

#WIDERDevConf2025

Fascinating research presented by WIDER Visiting Scholar Timothy Köhler on South Africa's social relief grant.

The paper reveals cash transfers to the unemployed boosted
🔎job search
📦business attempts
💼employment

though long-term effects aren't universal

#WIDERDevConf2025

An exciting workshop at UNU-WIDER earlier this week, as researchers gathered to finetune their research plans and both hear and provide expert feedback.

Follow the project, a part of @schmidtsciences.bsky.social‬ initiative on AI at work: go.unu.edu/5OVXX

First one of our spring 2025 Visiting Scholars to be introduced is @timkohler.bsky.social‬. Coming from @dpru-uct.bsky.social‬, he is a micro-economist focused on labour markets, social protection, and policy evaluation in lower-income countries. Meet our visitors: go.unu.edu/D0wIP

How have the returns to education evolved during the post-Apartheid era in South Africa?🇿🇦

Read about it in a new short Econ3x3 blog I’ve put together below, summarizing a 2024 RESEP paper also below.

www.econ3x3.org/article/how-...

Full paper for those interested: resep.sun.ac.za/wp-content/u...

Very grateful to be in beautiful Maastricht🇳🇱 today to present some work at @unumerit.bsky.social. Thanks for having me!

If you’re interested in attending in-person or online: go.unu.edu/9zq7Q

Excited to be joining @unu-wider.bsky.social in Helsinki 🇫🇮 as a Visiting Scholar for 3 months starting in April! While there, my work will focus on social protection policy & labor market inequality in lower-income countries, with a particular focus on South Africa. Very much looking forward to it!

Read the full research report and summary here: bsky.app/profile/dpru...

Noncompliance with minimum wage rising, study finds National minimum wage is a theoretical exercise that does not take cognisance of stakeholder inputs, says Neasa

In the News: 'Noncompliance with minimum wage rising, study finds'

New Business Day article referencing Haroon Bhorat, @timkohler.bsky.social, and Ben Stanwix's evaluation of the labour market effects of the 2024 ⬆️ in South Africa’s🇿🇦 National Minimum Wage.

www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/...

🚨New paper!🚨

Now published in Energy Economics, we (w/ @HaroonBhorat) provide the 1st estimates of the labour market effects of frequent & severe power outages (known as “load shedding”) in South Africa 🇿🇦

Full (OA) paper available here: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...

🧵 below! 1/n

A great way to end the year 🎉

My paper, co-authored w/ Haroon Bhorat, on the labour market effects of SA’s🇿🇦 SRD grant is now published in World Development.

We began this work back in 2020. So happy it found a good home!

Full (OA) paper here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

#EconSky

The NMW Commission invites written representations in response to their recommendations by 14 January 2025.

✍️Read the full report here: www.labour.gov.za/DocumentCent...

📃Read the relevant government gazette, which includes a summary of the report's findings alongside ongoing work on the effects of all of the NMW adjustments over the past 5 years, here: static.pmg.org.za/1/NMW.pdf

The report focuses on causal effects on hourly wages, employment, working hours, and monthly earnings. The authors find:

- Large ⬆️ effects on hourly wages
- Small ⬇️ effects on working hours
- Consequently, large ⬆️ effects on monthly earnings
- Small ⬇️ effects on employment

#EconSky

The research seeks to directly inform policymaking surrounding the future of the NMW in SA and minimum wage policy in lower-income countries more broadly.

Set at R27.58 per hour, the 2024 increase was the largest in inflation-adjusted terms since the NMW’s introduction in 2019.

Commissioned by SA's🇿🇦 Department of Employment and Labour, DPRU Director Prof. Haroon Bhorat, Senior Research Officer Ben Stanwix, & Junior Research Fellow Dr. @timkohler.bsky.social conducted an econometric evaluation of the labour market effects of the 2024 ⬆️ in the National Minimum Wage (NMW).