Bernie Bastien-Olvera

Ocean warming projected to stall expected mangrove recovery Increasing ocean temperatures will erase mangrove restoration gains expected to occur due to economic development and conservation, according to a new study from researchers at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Projections indicate that rising ocean temperatures could offset anticipated gains in global mangrove restoration by 2100, resulting in significant ecosystem and economic losses, especially in Asia. doi.org/g92dsh

Warming ocean will cost $28bn a year in mangrove losses alone - Oceanographic Continued increase in ocean temperatures is projected to stall the advances made in mangrove recovery and restoration, a new study has warned.

About 150,000 hectares (580 sq. mi.) of mangrove ecosystems, vital for coastal protection, habitat creation, carbon storage, and water quality, will be lost by the end of the century due to #climatechange, with Asia bearing nearly two-thirds of these losses.
oceanographicmagazine.com/news/warming...

Figures looked weird, so sharing again!

Ocean Warming Projected to Stall Expected Mangrove Recovery Leer en español aquiIncreasing ocean temperatures will erase mangrove restoration gains expected to occur due to economic development and conservation, according to a new study from researchers at UC ...

Press Release here: scripps.ucsd.edu/news/ocean-w...

By 2100, foregone benefits = 28B USD/year.
But uneven:

Asia 64% of losses

Middle East and Africa 18%

LatAm & Caribbean 12%

OECD 3%

Climate damages ecosystems broadly, but people don’t bear losses equally.

Together:
🌍 Socioeconomics push toward recovery.
🔥 Warming oceans stall or reverse progress.

Without climate change, mangroves could recover to global restoration targets. With warming, we lose ~150,000 ha by 2100.

Temperature matters too.

Warming helps colder sites expand. But beyond a threshold, heat damages dominate.

We identified sea surface temp of the hottest month (SSTh) as the strongest signal.

This Figure shows the marginal effect of both drivers

We find a Kuznets-like pattern: at low GDP, mangroves are often lost (deforestation/land-use change). Beyond a development threshold, protection strengthens and mangrove cover recovers. Socioeconomic growth can support conservation—but only after that threshold is crossed.

Mangroves protect coasts, store carbon & sustain fisheries. Using global data (1996–2020), we mapped mangrove extent & tracked how it responds to climate & socioeconomic drivers. Each point = 1° grid cell with mangroves.

New paper out! We looked at how warming oceans & socioeconomic change shape the future of mangroves worldwide. @ioppublishing.bsky.social

TLDR: Climate change could stall restoration efforts & deepen global inequalities.

Paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios - Scientific Data Scientific Data - GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios

I'm pleased to announce our newest paper published at Scientific Data, where we establish a framework for generating fast, custom SRM scenarios. This will allow us to develop probabilístic regional and global impact studies of geoengineering interventions.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

After months held up in customs, @paulkelleher.net 's book finally made it to me. Now riding along with me on the Mexico City metro.

Claim: "Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!"
Reality: Yes, and there's more of it in a warmer atmosphere

-"CO2 is plant food!"
-pretty hard to eat when you're on fire

-"Climate has changed before!"
-We know, we told you that

-"Scientists don't know everything!"
- doesn't mean we know *nothing*

New paper!

Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain.
In this study, we compile a global database and analyze the co-occurrence of shocks, the building blocks of crisis, from 1970 to today.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Very happy to be an AERE Scholar this year! I'm looking forward to contributing meaningfully to the field.

Call for abstracts! The Beijer Young Scholars are convening a session at #AGU25: "Advances in Modeling and Governing Interacting Shocks in the Anthropocene". Submit by July 30! 🌍⚡

📍New Orleans, Dec 15–19
🔗 agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...

Outside deck of a brewery with a mountain at the back

What a view of the Sandia mountains last week in Albuquerque. So happy to join the @aereorg.bsky.social scholars cohort, an amazing group of supportive and brilliant people!

📈 Daily global temperature between 1940 to 2025 – @hausfath.bsky.social
2️⃣ bsky.app/profile/haus...

A weather system over Houston keeps delaying my connecting flight, but still hopeful I'll make it on time for the first session!

What an amazing week at the Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences!

Sharing ideas, methods and good moments with this talented group of scholars studying socioecological impacts.

Heat disproportionately kills young people: Evidence from wet-bulb temperature in Mexico Analysis of temperature exposure and microdata finds the majority of heat-related deaths are among people under 35 years old.

🚨"Heat disproportionally kills young people: Evidence from Wet-Bulb Temperature Exposure" My new paper co-lead with @ajsw.info is out today!

Using 20 years of nationwide mortality microdata + wet-bulb temperature, we uncovered fascinating new findings. Thread 👇

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Sure thing! Here's a website where activists and academics are compiling info that has proved useful to inform about potential impacts, but not peer reviewed research that I'm aware of.

whalesorgas.org

Greenpeace must pay hundreds of millions over Dakota pipeline protests, says jury Non-profit said in statement lawsuits like this aimed at ‘destroying the right to peaceful protest’

Fossil fuel companies should be forced to pay the public trillions in damages for the costs of their planetary arson. Instead they are trying to shut down one of the most important and storied environmental groups in the world. It's shameless - and it's not over. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Economic and Environmental Effects of Natural Gas Exports, with Brian Prest Resources Radio · Episode

Very cool episode on the environmental effects of increased US exports of natural gas
@danielraimi.bsky.social !

I would add the effect of the transportation itself. LNG tankers shipping US gas in the Gulf of California could severely disrupt marine ecosystems.

open.spotify.com/episode/0W47...

AGU has joined a lawsuit challenging the firing of probationary employees at federal agencies.

These actions weaken science, harm public health & the environment, and threaten national security. 🧵 #StandWithScience

Kicking off AGU council meeting with an inspiring quote and new horizons for my taste buds

Hi Emily, I would like to be added to the feed please. Here's my Scholar profile, thanks!!
scholar.google.com.mx/citations?us...