Miles Kellerman

EMERGENCY POD: Rare Earth Export Controls Will Trump clap back or cave?

China announced a major escalation in export controls on critical minerals this week.

ChinaTalk provides a great overview in conversation with Chris McGuire and Chris Miller -->

www.chinatalk.media/p/emergency-...

Dutch govt accused of freezing operations of Chinese semiconductor giant's chipmaker Nexperia Wingtech, the Shanghai-listed parent, denounces what it essentially calls a boardroom coup involving the Dutch government and local executives

A quiet bombshell in Europe’s tech world

The Dutch government seems to have effectively frozen operations of Nexperia, the Chinese-owned chipmaker, citing national security, according to corporate filing today - via @zichenwanghere

Last December, China sought to choke off America's access to a critical strategic mineral. But in a new post, I find that supply chains adjusted at lightning speed.

Belgium, of all places, has replaced China as America's top source. It shows that weaponizing trade can have very strange side-effects

What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.–China Trade War China has imposed strict controls on the export of antimony. But global supply chains, both legal and illegal, are finding ways to adapt.

*What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.–China Trade War*

China has banned the export of antimony to the U.S. But in a new post, I find that global supply chains - both legal and illegal - are finding ways to adjust.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky #china

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/what-one-m...

Stablecoin issuer Circle examines ‘reversible’ transactions in departure for crypto President says sector should learn from traditional finance and allow refunds in cases of fraud or disputes

As Lester Bangs once said, "You'll meet them all again on their long journey to the middle"

www.ft.com/content/5b00...

EU explores using €170bn of Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine Some capitals remain wary over ‘reparation loans’ plan, as US calls on G7 to tap Moscow’s money immobilised abroad

Devils in the details. EU wants to issue long-term bonds backed by frozen Russian assets. Requires guarantee sanctions are in place throughout maturation period (the legal basis of the freeze). But sanctions must be renewed by unanimous vote every six months.

www.ft.com/content/4585...

🚨New working paper🚨

In this updated work with Annette Alstadsaeter, @bluebery-planterose.com , @gabrielzucman.bsky.social and @andokl.bsky.social , we use leaked data to chart the rise of offshore real estate in Dubai

www.taxobservatory.eu//www-site/up...

"Sri Lanka has denied Chinese military vessels entry into Hambantota several times despite China Merchant Group having an 85 percent controlling stake in the port...while [CMG] may have a controlling stake to operate the port, the Sri Lanka Port Authority, a state body, retains legal ownership."

Fascinating topic and thought-provoking argument about the dangers of preemptively striking suspicious satellites —>

How a Top Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission Into North Korea Fell Apart

“…SEALs punctured the [civilian] boat crew’s lungs with knives to make sure their bodies would sink.”

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

Following post-Crimea sanctions, "Russian deposits in tax havens increased by an average of 15% relative to their synthetic control [$2.25 billion]"

From new working paper by Langenmayr et al, "Bypassing Sanctions: Hide ‘n Seek in Tax Havens?"

www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...

Opinion | Trump Is Building His Own Paramilitary Force

This interview, which is also available to listen to as a podcast, provides a useful overview of some of the dangerous trends we’ve been seeing in recent months regarding federalization and militarization of state and local police functions.

The (Dis)assembly of Information Chinese crime syndicates are operating underground banks to launder the proceeds of fentanyl sales. But their practices, and the risks they pose, are far from new.

FinCEN released a notice today urging financial institutions to pay attention to Chinese-Mexican money laundering networks. I touched on this topic in a prior post and have a lengthier piece in progress -->

FinCEN release: www.fincen.gov/sites/defaul...

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-disass...

bsky.app/profile/jake...

“only 3.5% to 20% of those who finish their program achieve this goal [TT position].” Brutal stats

“The reality of Trump’s threat to the very system that investors depend on has failed to become the conventional wisdom among traders…”

There’s a cognitive dissonance here. Accurately pricing in regime change is so costly as to be psychologically unfathomable. So we just…don’t.

CME Teams with FanDuel to Launch Betting on Financial Markets CME Group, the biggest futures exchange in the U.S., has teamed with the sports-wagering platform FanDuel to let users bet on the outcome of market-related events.

Now let’s bundle those bets into a synthetic product, and allow college students to parlay bets on that product with the Badgers beating Ohio State, all financed through Klarna. It’s the American way.

www.wsj.com/finance/comm...

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... @abenewman.bsky.social and meself are a cover story.

Bessent says unusual Nvidia, AMD revenue-sharing deal could be a ‘model’ for other industries Bessent called the deal “unique,” before suggesting that it could be a lot less unique soon. Scholars have another word: unprecedented.

1/US gov stating unprecedented financial expropriation. From tech to law firms to Universities, threat of state coercion is used for corporate tithing. Without pushback, this behavior will escalate and threaten the economy. Who will invest when the gov will just take it.
fortune.com/2025/08/13/b...

Eva Dou’s House of Huawei covers some of these contradictions. It’s a great read: sites.prh.com/houseofhuawei

Reuters reports the US is embedding tracking devices in the packaging of AI chip shipments to China.

As I wrote in a recent post (below), the ultimate goal is much more ambitious: embed tracking into the chips themselves.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

This was really something. What struck me most was the sense of sadness underneath the surface. The host saying he’s far right “only because they’re kind of my community.”

The US Military Is Raking in Millions From On-Base Slot Machines The Defense Department operates slot machines on US military bases overseas, raising tens of millions of dollars to fund recreation for troops—and creating risks for soldiers prone to gambling addicti...

A fact befitting of our times: the U.S. Army operates 1,889 slot machines in 79 foreign bases.

www.wired.com/story/us-mil...

Why did China’s cyber regulator just summon Nvidia over security concerns?

I have an essay for you —>

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

A good way to understand this is to substitute “Meta” for “an AI” in this sentence:

The old Democratic party doesn't fit new media Melding new modes of policy making with new modes of public making

The connecting thread between Chris Hayes, Ezra Klein, Zohran Mamdani and Brian Eno. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-old-de...

The American guns turning Haiti’s gangs into an army Weapons smuggled from Florida are empowering the country’s militias and enabling them to challenge a fragile government

Want to buy a military-grade rifle capable of piercing armor? Florida requires no permit, no background check, and there is no limit on the quantity you can purchase.

And that's great news for Haiti's gangs.

Great visual investigation by the @financialtimes.com

ig.ft.com/haiti-gangs/

A significant escalation in the war on general purpose computing.

This Chip will Self-Destruct The U.S. wants to track the location of every AI microchip. And it also wants the power to remotely shut them down. Can the rest of the world stomach the risks?

The U.S. wants to track the location of every AI microchip. And it also wants the ability to remotely shut them down.

But this isn't just about smuggling. In a new post, I argue this might be the power play of the century.

#polisky #econsky #tech

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/this-chip-...

White House Unveils America's AI Action Plan The White House today released “Winning the AI Race: America’s AI Action Plan”, in accordance with President Trump’s January executive order on Removing

Interesting. Presumably they are also making their voices heard on the Chip Security Act. I suspect they’ll have a harder climb this time, as Trump has included chip tracking in his “AI Action Plan” www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...