Last December, China sought to choke off America's access to a critical strategic mineral. But in a new post, I find that supply chains adjusted at lightning speed.
Belgium, of all places, has replaced China as America's top source. It shows that weaponizing trade can have very strange side-effects
10.10.2025 09:02 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.βChina Trade War
China has imposed strict controls on the export of antimony. But global supply chains, both legal and illegal, are finding ways to adapt.
*What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.βChina Trade War*
China has banned the export of antimony to the U.S. But in a new post, I find that global supply chains - both legal and illegal - are finding ways to adjust.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky #china
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/what-one-m...
09.10.2025 13:46 β π 2 π 1 π¬ 0 π 1
EU explores using β¬170bn of Russiaβs frozen assets to fund Ukraine
Some capitals remain wary over βreparation loansβ plan, as US calls on G7 to tap Moscowβs money immobilised abroad
Devils in the details. EU wants to issue long-term bonds backed by frozen Russian assets. Requires guarantee sanctions are in place throughout maturation period (the legal basis of the freeze). But sanctions must be renewed by unanimous vote every six months.
www.ft.com/content/4585...
17.09.2025 15:21 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
π¨New working paperπ¨
In this updated work with Annette Alstadsaeter, @bluebery-planterose.com , @gabrielzucman.bsky.social and @andokl.bsky.social , we use leaked data to chart the rise of offshore real estate in Dubai
www.taxobservatory.eu//www-site/up...
16.09.2025 09:59 β π 45 π 15 π¬ 1 π 2
"Sri Lanka has denied Chinese military vessels entry into Hambantota several times despite China Merchant Group having an 85 percent controlling stake in the port...while [CMG] may have a controlling stake to operate the port, the Sri Lanka Port Authority, a state body, retains legal ownership."
15.09.2025 18:37 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Fascinating topic and thought-provoking argument about the dangers of preemptively striking suspicious satellites β>
15.09.2025 07:00 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
How a Top Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission Into North Korea Fell Apart
ββ¦SEALs punctured the [civilian] boat crewβs lungs with knives to make sure their bodies would sink.β
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...
06.09.2025 07:10 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0
Following post-Crimea sanctions, "Russian deposits in tax havens increased by an average of 15% relative to their synthetic control [$2.25 billion]"
From new working paper by Langenmayr et al, "Bypassing Sanctions: Hide βn Seek in Tax Havens?"
www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...
01.09.2025 10:01 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Opinion | Trump Is Building His Own Paramilitary Force
This interview, which is also available to listen to as a podcast, provides a useful overview of some of the dangerous trends weβve been seeing in recent months regarding federalization and militarization of state and local police functions.
28.08.2025 14:33 β π 17471 π 6813 π¬ 873 π 481
The (Dis)assembly of Information
Chinese crime syndicates are operating underground banks to launder the proceeds of fentanyl sales. But their practices, and the risks they pose, are far from new.
FinCEN released a notice today urging financial institutions to pay attention to Chinese-Mexican money laundering networks. I touched on this topic in a prior post and have a lengthier piece in progress -->
FinCEN release: www.fincen.gov/sites/defaul...
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-disass...
28.08.2025 15:50 β π 1 π 2 π¬ 0 π 0
bsky.app/profile/jake...
27.08.2025 04:19 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
βonly 3.5% to 20% of those who finish their program achieve this goal [TT position].β Brutal stats
26.08.2025 21:05 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
βThe reality of Trumpβs threat to the very system that investors depend on has failed to become the conventional wisdom among tradersβ¦β
Thereβs a cognitive dissonance here. Accurately pricing in regime change is so costly as to be psychologically unfathomable. So we justβ¦donβt.
26.08.2025 19:41 β π 115 π 43 π¬ 7 π 0
CME Teams with FanDuel to Launch Betting on Financial Markets
CME Group, the biggest futures exchange in the U.S., has teamed with the sports-wagering platform FanDuel to let users bet on the outcome of market-related events.
Now letβs bundle those bets into a synthetic product, and allow college students to parlay bets on that product with the Badgers beating Ohio State, all financed through Klarna. Itβs the American way.
www.wsj.com/finance/comm...
21.08.2025 11:36 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... @abenewman.bsky.social and meself are a cover story.
19.08.2025 08:52 β π 131 π 22 π¬ 5 π 6
Bessent says unusual Nvidia, AMD revenue-sharing deal could be a βmodelβ for other industries
Bessent called the deal βunique,β before suggesting that it could be a lot less unique soon. Scholars have another word: unprecedented.
1/US gov stating unprecedented financial expropriation. From tech to law firms to Universities, threat of state coercion is used for corporate tithing. Without pushback, this behavior will escalate and threaten the economy. Who will invest when the gov will just take it.
fortune.com/2025/08/13/b...
14.08.2025 09:34 β π 120 π 62 π¬ 8 π 10
Reuters reports the US is embedding tracking devices in the packaging of AI chip shipments to China.
As I wrote in a recent post (below), the ultimate goal is much more ambitious: embed tracking into the chips themselves.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
www.reuters.com/world/china/...
14.08.2025 07:23 β π 10 π 8 π¬ 1 π 0
This was really something. What struck me most was the sense of sadness underneath the surface. The host saying heβs far right βonly because theyβre kind of my community.β
09.08.2025 08:52 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
Why did Chinaβs cyber regulator just summon Nvidia over security concerns?
I have an essay for you β>
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
31.07.2025 15:48 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
A good way to understand this is to substitute βMetaβ for βan AIβ in this sentence:
31.07.2025 14:11 β π 6 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
The American guns turning Haitiβs gangs into an army
Weapons smuggled from Florida are empowering the countryβs militias and enabling them to challenge a fragile government
Want to buy a military-grade rifle capable of piercing armor? Florida requires no permit, no background check, and there is no limit on the quantity you can purchase.
And that's great news for Haiti's gangs.
Great visual investigation by the @financialtimes.com
ig.ft.com/haiti-gangs/
30.07.2025 10:04 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
A significant escalation in the war on general purpose computing.
27.07.2025 18:22 β π 3 π 2 π¬ 0 π 0
This Chip will Self-Destruct
The U.S. wants to track the location of every AI microchip. And it also wants the power to remotely shut them down. Can the rest of the world stomach the risks?
The U.S. wants to track the location of every AI microchip. And it also wants the ability to remotely shut them down.
But this isn't just about smuggling. In a new post, I argue this might be the power play of the century.
#polisky #econsky #tech
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/this-chip-...
27.07.2025 13:25 β π 29 π 14 π¬ 7 π 3
White House Unveils America's AI Action Plan
The White House today released βWinning the AI Race: Americaβs AI Action Planβ, in accordance with President Trumpβs January executive order on Removing
Interesting. Presumably they are also making their voices heard on the Chip Security Act. I suspect theyβll have a harder climb this time, as Trump has included chip tracking in his βAI Action Planβ www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...
27.07.2025 15:41 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
This is a strikingly astute piece of analysis that builds in part on @abenewman.bsky.social and my ideas about weaponized interdependence, but is so much more than that.
27.07.2025 14:14 β π 48 π 18 π¬ 0 π 0
Citing @himself.bsky.social and @abenewman.bsky.socialβs WI and recent Wired piece, and @gbeaumier.bsky.social and @mkcartwright.bsky.social βs fascinating paper on cross-network weaponization. May also interest @peterwildeford.bsky.social who recently wrote on MAIM
27.07.2025 13:59 β π 5 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Professor at Johns Hopkins University: climate, energy, industrial policy, geopolitics.
Hats: Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab β‘οΈ// Carnegie Endowment π // Transition Accelerator π¨π¦
Senior Correspondent for Europe at the South China Morning Post.
Tracking the shifting tectonic plates of global trade and geopolitics.
All posts should be heard in a Fermanagh accent.
Dad, husband, President, citizen. barackobama.com
Scholar, author, policy advisor
alondranelson.com
Science, Technology, and Social Values Lab
https://www.ias.edu/stsv-lab
Associate Professor in Business and Public Policy at Roskilde University
https://thomaspaster.wordpress.com/
Assistant Professor in Accounting. Innovation and Disclosure Research.
www.diss-conference.com www.timmartens.de
@Unibocconi
Following, RTs and links β endorsement.
IO and Law&Economics. Associate professor of economics at U of Mannheim & ZEW Mannheim. Research on innovation, competition, and privacy. Dad of 2.
Associate Prof at EGB Copenhagen Business School & Anti-Corruption Data Collective. Duke PhD. Interested in $$ in politics, state capacity, taxation, stats. Exil-Herthaner
Assistant Prof Copenhagen Business School | Fellow UChicago Stigler Center | Political economy, money in politics, lobbying, non-market strategy | Occasional posts in Danish.
https://sites.google.com/view/bcegerod
Assistant Professor of Government & Business at Copenhagen Business School studying int'l monetary & financial relations | UW-Madison PhD | IPE, IR
Reading SEC filings intensively and obsessively for 20+ years. Home of the Friday Night π©. Learn more at footnoted.com. Brooklyn-born and raised, but now an Angeleno with a soupΓ§on of Paris.
Signal: footnoted.90
Columnist and feature writer at the Financial Times.
π©πΌβπ» https://www.ft.com/jemima-kelly
Probably at a Stoke Newington drinks party.
Concerned with tech, media and democracy. CEO & Editor at Tech Policy Press. Research & Adjunct Professor at NYU Tandon School of Engineering. Opinions mine.
Professor of History, sometimes administrator at big public university in Midwest. Writes about money, French Revolution, restaurants. Friend to vert paleo.
ex UCL History; Yale SOM Visiting Fellow; Guggenheim and New America Fellow.
once/future Mainer
ID physician, Political scientist, Applied statistician. PhD Candidate in Government and AM Candidate in Statistics @harvard.edu.
mitsurumukaigawara.com
Associate Professor, Temple University School of Law. I post about things that interest me, some of which are about law.
Personal Account / Hayden Center Director / Led White House Situation Room / Fmr CIA Chief of Staff / Nat'l security & intelligence commentator / Speaker
Law professor | Privacy, Cybersecurity, AI*, Technology and Society, National Security | Veteran | There is music yet to play | https://tractatus.org
Social scientist, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
#Biosecurity, #Biodefense, #Biotech, Pandemic Preparedness