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Miles Kellerman

@mileskellerman.bsky.social

Assistant Professor at Leiden University's Institute of Security and Global Affairs. Working on the intersections of finance, crime, and international politics. Website: mileskellerman.com Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman

472 Followers  |  358 Following  |  278 Posts  |  Joined: 07.10.2023  |  2.0751

Latest posts by mileskellerman.bsky.social on Bluesky

Last December, China sought to choke off America's access to a critical strategic mineral. But in a new post, I find that supply chains adjusted at lightning speed.

Belgium, of all places, has replaced China as America's top source. It shows that weaponizing trade can have very strange side-effects

10.10.2025 09:02 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.–China Trade War China has imposed strict controls on the export of antimony. But global supply chains, both legal and illegal, are finding ways to adapt.

*What One Mineral Reveals About the U.S.–China Trade War*

China has banned the export of antimony to the U.S. But in a new post, I find that global supply chains - both legal and illegal - are finding ways to adjust.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky #china

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/what-one-m...

09.10.2025 13:46 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Stablecoin issuer Circle examines β€˜reversible’ transactions in departure for crypto President says sector should learn from traditional finance and allow refunds in cases of fraud or disputes

As Lester Bangs once said, "You'll meet them all again on their long journey to the middle"

www.ft.com/content/5b00...

25.09.2025 09:19 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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EU explores using €170bn of Russia’s frozen assets to fund Ukraine Some capitals remain wary over β€˜reparation loans’ plan, as US calls on G7 to tap Moscow’s money immobilised abroad

Devils in the details. EU wants to issue long-term bonds backed by frozen Russian assets. Requires guarantee sanctions are in place throughout maturation period (the legal basis of the freeze). But sanctions must be renewed by unanimous vote every six months.

www.ft.com/content/4585...

17.09.2025 15:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨New working paper🚨

In this updated work with Annette Alstadsaeter, @bluebery-planterose.com , @gabrielzucman.bsky.social and @andokl.bsky.social , we use leaked data to chart the rise of offshore real estate in Dubai

www.taxobservatory.eu//www-site/up...

16.09.2025 09:59 β€” πŸ‘ 45    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2

"Sri Lanka has denied Chinese military vessels entry into Hambantota several times despite China Merchant Group having an 85 percent controlling stake in the port...while [CMG] may have a controlling stake to operate the port, the Sri Lanka Port Authority, a state body, retains legal ownership."

15.09.2025 18:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Fascinating topic and thought-provoking argument about the dangers of preemptively striking suspicious satellites β€”>

15.09.2025 07:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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How a Top Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission Into North Korea Fell Apart

β€œβ€¦SEALs punctured the [civilian] boat crew’s lungs with knives to make sure their bodies would sink.”

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

06.09.2025 07:10 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Following post-Crimea sanctions, "Russian deposits in tax havens increased by an average of 15% relative to their synthetic control [$2.25 billion]"

From new working paper by Langenmayr et al, "Bypassing Sanctions: Hide β€˜n Seek in Tax Havens?"

www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...

01.09.2025 10:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | Trump Is Building His Own Paramilitary Force

This interview, which is also available to listen to as a podcast, provides a useful overview of some of the dangerous trends we’ve been seeing in recent months regarding federalization and militarization of state and local police functions.

28.08.2025 14:33 β€” πŸ‘ 17471    πŸ” 6813    πŸ’¬ 873    πŸ“Œ 481
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The (Dis)assembly of Information Chinese crime syndicates are operating underground banks to launder the proceeds of fentanyl sales. But their practices, and the risks they pose, are far from new.

FinCEN released a notice today urging financial institutions to pay attention to Chinese-Mexican money laundering networks. I touched on this topic in a prior post and have a lengthier piece in progress -->

FinCEN release: www.fincen.gov/sites/defaul...

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-disass...

28.08.2025 15:50 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

bsky.app/profile/jake...

27.08.2025 04:19 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œonly 3.5% to 20% of those who finish their program achieve this goal [TT position].” Brutal stats

26.08.2025 21:05 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

β€œThe reality of Trump’s threat to the very system that investors depend on has failed to become the conventional wisdom among traders…”

There’s a cognitive dissonance here. Accurately pricing in regime change is so costly as to be psychologically unfathomable. So we just…don’t.

26.08.2025 19:41 β€” πŸ‘ 115    πŸ” 43    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 0
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CME Teams with FanDuel to Launch Betting on Financial Markets CME Group, the biggest futures exchange in the U.S., has teamed with the sports-wagering platform FanDuel to let users bet on the outcome of market-related events.

Now let’s bundle those bets into a synthetic product, and allow college students to parlay bets on that product with the Badgers beating Ohio State, all financed through Klarna. It’s the American way.

www.wsj.com/finance/comm...

21.08.2025 11:36 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... @abenewman.bsky.social and meself are a cover story.

19.08.2025 08:52 β€” πŸ‘ 131    πŸ” 22    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 6
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Bessent says unusual Nvidia, AMD revenue-sharing deal could be a β€˜model’ for other industries Bessent called the deal β€œunique,” before suggesting that it could be a lot less unique soon. Scholars have another word: unprecedented.

1/US gov stating unprecedented financial expropriation. From tech to law firms to Universities, threat of state coercion is used for corporate tithing. Without pushback, this behavior will escalate and threaten the economy. Who will invest when the gov will just take it.
fortune.com/2025/08/13/b...

14.08.2025 09:34 β€” πŸ‘ 120    πŸ” 62    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 10
House of Huawei - Penguin Random House - Penguin Random House Based on wide-ranging interviews and painstaking archival research, House of Huawei dissects the global web of power, money, influence, surveillance, bloodshed, and national glory that Huawei helped t...

Eva Dou’s House of Huawei covers some of these contradictions. It’s a great read: sites.prh.com/houseofhuawei

14.08.2025 09:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Reuters reports the US is embedding tracking devices in the packaging of AI chip shipments to China.

As I wrote in a recent post (below), the ultimate goal is much more ambitious: embed tracking into the chips themselves.

#polisky #econsky #lawsky

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

14.08.2025 07:23 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This was really something. What struck me most was the sense of sadness underneath the surface. The host saying he’s far right β€œonly because they’re kind of my community.”

09.08.2025 08:52 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The US Military Is Raking in Millions From On-Base Slot Machines The Defense Department operates slot machines on US military bases overseas, raising tens of millions of dollars to fund recreation for troopsβ€”and creating risks for soldiers prone to gambling addicti...

A fact befitting of our times: the U.S. Army operates 1,889 slot machines in 79 foreign bases.

www.wired.com/story/us-mil...

04.08.2025 11:02 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Why did China’s cyber regulator just summon Nvidia over security concerns?

I have an essay for you β€”>

open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...

31.07.2025 15:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A good way to understand this is to substitute β€œMeta” for β€œan AI” in this sentence:

31.07.2025 14:11 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The old Democratic party doesn't fit new media Melding new modes of policy making with new modes of public making

The connecting thread between Chris Hayes, Ezra Klein, Zohran Mamdani and Brian Eno. www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-old-de...

30.07.2025 12:44 β€” πŸ‘ 350    πŸ” 73    πŸ’¬ 13    πŸ“Œ 20
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The American guns turning Haiti’s gangs into an army Weapons smuggled from Florida are empowering the country’s militias and enabling them to challenge a fragile government

Want to buy a military-grade rifle capable of piercing armor? Florida requires no permit, no background check, and there is no limit on the quantity you can purchase.

And that's great news for Haiti's gangs.

Great visual investigation by the @financialtimes.com

ig.ft.com/haiti-gangs/

30.07.2025 10:04 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A significant escalation in the war on general purpose computing.

27.07.2025 18:22 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This Chip will Self-Destruct The U.S. wants to track the location of every AI microchip. And it also wants the power to remotely shut them down. Can the rest of the world stomach the risks?

The U.S. wants to track the location of every AI microchip. And it also wants the ability to remotely shut them down.

But this isn't just about smuggling. In a new post, I argue this might be the power play of the century.

#polisky #econsky #tech

mileskellerman.substack.com/p/this-chip-...

27.07.2025 13:25 β€” πŸ‘ 29    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 3
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White House Unveils America's AI Action Plan The White House today released β€œWinning the AI Race: America’s AI Action Plan”, in accordance with President Trump’s January executive order on Removing

Interesting. Presumably they are also making their voices heard on the Chip Security Act. I suspect they’ll have a harder climb this time, as Trump has included chip tracking in his β€œAI Action Plan” www.whitehouse.gov/articles/202...

27.07.2025 15:41 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is a strikingly astute piece of analysis that builds in part on @abenewman.bsky.social and my ideas about weaponized interdependence, but is so much more than that.

27.07.2025 14:14 β€” πŸ‘ 48    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Citing @himself.bsky.social and @abenewman.bsky.social’s WI and recent Wired piece, and @gbeaumier.bsky.social and @mkcartwright.bsky.social β€˜s fascinating paper on cross-network weaponization. May also interest @peterwildeford.bsky.social who recently wrote on MAIM

27.07.2025 13:59 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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